Pittsburgh Pirates: Three potential offseason moves to watch for
For the Pittsburgh Pirates, this offseason is about setting up for the future.
How will the Pittsburgh Pirates handle the upcoming offseason? That’s a really great question that probably doesn’t bring about many exciting answers for Pirates fans. However, the next few months will give Pittsburgh an opportunity to make smaller moves to set them up for future success.
The Pirates ended the 2020 season with a league-worst 19-41 record, winning the race for the top pick in the 2021 draft, likely Vanderbilt pitcher Kumar Rocker. Their offense ranked 28th in team batting average (.220), 30th in on-base percentage (.284), 30th in slugging percentage (.357), and 29th in team-wRC+ (73).
Pitching didn’t fare much better, with Pirates starting pitchers ranking 28th in combined fWAR (1.2) and a missed season from Chris Archer after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery.
The Pirates now face an offseason that will be more about who on the current roster is leaving than who will be coming in. They aren’t going to find themselves in bidding wars for any of the top free agents and they certainly aren’t giving up any prospects in winter trades.
General manager Ben Cherrington may still be active in the trade market, but top trade chips like Josh Bell underperformed, Archer didn’t even throw a single pitch, and Keone Kela (now a free agent) found himself on the Injured List at the trade deadline, resulting in Pittsburgh being unable to move the reliever.
There are still a few names who may draw a worthwhile return. With an arbitration-eligible class of 19 players, the Pirates can reduce that list by dealing some of the more attractive options.
So if the Pittsburgh Pirates are still a few years away from handing out big free agent contracts, how do they improve this offseason? Here are three moves, not necessarily free agent signings or trades, they can complete this offseason to improve.
Joe Musgrove ended 2020 on a very high note for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The biggest trade piece the Pittsburgh Pirates have is starting pitcher Joe Musgrove. He was reportedly almost dealt to the Toronto Blue Jays at this year’s trade deadline, a move that still makes a lot of sense if talks can resurface this winter.
When Musgrove was healthy, he pitched very well for Pittsburgh. In eight starts (39 IP), Musgrove posted a 3.86 ERA (3.42 FIP), a .223 average against, and struck out just over 33% of hitters he faced, a near 12% increase from 2019. His walk numbers weren’t great (3.63/9 IP), but his walk rate has historically been good, so there’s no big reason to be concerned quite yet.
The 6’5″ righty is just 27 years old and has multiple years of fairly cheap control left before becoming a free agent and he put on quite a show to close out the 2020 season.
Over his final two starts, against two playoff teams in Cleveland and St. Louis, Musgrove tossed a combined 13 scoreless innings with 21 strikeouts and two walks.
He’s healthy, young, controllable, and has the potential to be a quality mid-rotation starter for any team in baseball. Of anyone currently on the roster, Joe Musgrove may be the one to bring in the biggest haul.
The New York Yankees are going to be in the market for arms, the LA Angels should be doing everything in their power to support Mike Trout, and the Blue Jays still make a lot of sense as they enter the offseason in search of pieces to get them over the hump in the AL East.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have quite the rookie in Ke’Bryan Hayes.
The most promising storyline for the Pittsburgh Pirates this year was the emergence of rookie third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. After a small yet very exciting first taste of the major leagues, extending Hayes and making the 23-year-old rookie a cornerstone to rebuild around should be high on the list of offseason priorities.
Pittsburgh discussed an extension with Hayes before the sports world shut down back March, but a global pandemic can certainly throw a wrench into your plans.
Dedicating large sums of money to a rookie who has the tools and skillset to be a high-quality major leaguer for many years to come doesn’t sound like a very Pittsburgh Pirates thing to do, but it needs to be done now.
In 24 games, Hayes slashed .376/.442/.682 with five home runs, seven doubles, two triples, and a 195 wRC+. He may have played in only one-third of Pittsburgh’s games, yet he led the team with a 1.7 fWAR, well ahead of Jacob Stallings who was worth 1.1 fWAR.
Hayes won’t put up these types of numbers across a full 162 game season and a .450 BABIP means a good bit of luck went into his 2020 numbers, but he hit the ball with authority (55% hard-hit rate) and showed solid patience at the plate for a rookie. There’s also the Gold Glove worthy defense that will make him one of the top defensive third baseman in all of baseball for many years.
Locking in Hayes now and using him to build the team around is a must this offseason.
Low-cost veteran signings can help the Pittsburgh Pirates build for the future.
We can’t talk about moves without discussing at least one free agent signing. Unfortunately, writing about a group of guys who could join the organization on minor league contracts isn’t super exciting.
Without any big splashes coming to Pittsburgh this offseason, you have to dig a bit deeper to find someone interesting enough for a look. The easiest option, and potentially most valuable, is pitching.
More Pirates. Alford showed enough for another look in 2021. light
If Pittsburgh is active in the trade market and does in fact non-tender a large number of players as expected, there will be plenty of innings to hand out in 2021. Finding low-cost arms you can flip at the deadline to add to the pipeline will be key.
When I think about the Pittsburgh Pirates offseason, I envision a path very similar to that of the Baltimore Orioles recently. Draft well, find waiver claims/low-cost deals and flip, keep payroll low until you’re ready to fill in the roster gaps with big free agent signings.
The Orioles were able to turn the trio of Tommy Milone, Miguel Castro, and Mychal Givens into three Top 30 prospects and four players to be named later at this year’s deadline. Contenders will always pay up for pitching help, apparently even pitching help that isn’t that good.
Looking at the list of upcoming free agents, RHP Alex Wood stands out as one of the more intriguing bounce-back options on the market.
Wood was solid in his first six seasons in the majors, including a 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA season in 2017 with the Dodgers (career-high 3.1 fWAR). Unfortunately, injuries limited him to just seven starts with the Cincinnati Reds in 2019 and 12.2 innings this season back with the Dodgers.
Someone is going to have the opportunity to pick up Alex Wood on a one-year prove-it deal and if he hits, a notable return can be had at next year’s trade deadline.
Next. Revisiting the Tyler Glasnow trade. dark
It may not be the most exciting offseason for the Pittsburgh Pirates, but small steps can be taken to begin righting the ship.