MLB: Three highest upside free agents and possible landing spots
These three high upside free agents may end up becoming some of the more valuable signings this offseason.
The 2020-2021 MLB free agency period officially begins on November 1, with much of the conversation focused on the financial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the likelihood of a brutal offseason for players currently on the market.
While smaller market, rebuilding teams are sure to avoid handing out any big contracts, contending teams in need of a big piece or two to put them in contention for a World Series in 2021 will still be active and the cream of the crop (J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, Marcell Ozuna to name a few) will still get their payday this offseason.
But for many players who now find themselves looking for work, the outlook may be grim as billionaire owners cry poor after a season of no fans and the uncertainty of what 2021 will bring in terms of fan attendance and possibly additional revenue losses.
We don’t know exactly what to expect once free agency begins in earnest, but there are a handful of veteran pieces available who have the potential to provide a high amount of value at a low cost.
Here are three high upside free agents to watch closely and possible landing spots for each.
Andrelton Simmons has been one of the top defensive shortstops throughout his MLB career.
Since making his MLB debut back in 2012 with the Atlanta Braves, Andrelton Simmons has been one of the top defensive shortstops in baseball, winning four Gold Gloves and one Platinum Glove Award thus far in his career.
Since 2013, his first full season in the majors, Simmons has a league-leading 172 Defensive Runs Saved, 105 more than the next shortstop on the list, Brandon Crawford and his 67. He leads all major league defenders in that category, with Colorado’s Nolan Arenado sitting in second with 120.
Unfortunately, injuries and a diminishing offensive performance have led to plenty of questions as to whether or not the 31-year-old shortstop can return to his 2017 or 2018 form where he was worth a combined 10.4 Wins Above Replacement.
Simmons appeared in just 103 games in 2019, hitting .264 with a .673 OPS and a wRC+ of 81. Those numbers were slightly better in 2020, but Simmons played in just 30 games and ended up opting out of the final few days of the season, citing COVID-19 concerns. He hit .297 with no home runs, a .702 OPS, and a wRC+ of 99.
Any team that signs Andrelton Simmons will do so for his glove, but if his offensive numbers can look similar to his 2017 or 2018 form and he’s able to put his ankle issue behind him, Simmons can once again emerge as one of the top infield talents in baseball.
The New York Yankees seem like one of the more obvious landing spots for Simmons this offseason. Oakland, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia could also be in on Simmons this offseason. With a decent class of free agent shortstops available this year and a monster class available next year, Simmons won’t get a big payday, but someone will be adding a solid player to plug into their infield.
A former MLB leader in saves, Kirby Yates is a bounce-back candidate after missing almost all of 2020.
Since joining the San Diego Padres in 2017, Kirby Yates saw his stock climb higher with each season, culminating in a truly dominant 2019 campaign. Establishing himself as one of the top relief options in baseball, Yates appeared destined for a big contract when hitting free agency, but that time is now and with a deep group of relievers on the market and Yates coming off an injury-filled 2020, the big dollar signs won’t be there for Yates.
But there’s still a chance that a team can get a bit of the old Kirby Yates on a cheap deal.
In 2019, Yates finished second to Liam Hendriks after putting together a 3.4 fWAR season. He saved 41 games and recorded a 1.91 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 41.6% strikeout rate thanks to a dominant splitter that produced a 34% whiff rate.
But then came 2020. Yates logged just 4.1 innings this season, striking out eight hitters but giving up six earned runs on seven hits before going down for the year due to elbow surgery.
For teams looking at adding bullpen depth this offseason, Kirby Yates is an intriguing bounce-back candidate who still has plenty left in the tank if he’s healthy.
If he agrees to an incentive-laden deal, a reunion with the Padres isn’t out of the question. If not, it’s likely Yates remains out west with a team like San Francisco, Arizona, or maybe even a team like Seattle.
Chris Archer is one of many MLB players who did not have his option picked up after the World Series.
MLB teams looking for cheaper starting rotation options will have plenty of bounce-back arms to choose from with names like James Paxton, Alex Wood, Cole Hamels, and many more on the market, but one free agent pitcher with a high upside to watch for is Chris Archer.
Archer did not pitch in 2020 after undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome and is now a free agent after the Pittsburgh Pirates expectedly refused to pick up his $11 million option for 2021.
Now 32, Archer is going to have to sign a prove-it deal to show he can still be a productive starting pitcher, but he’s someone worth taking a chance on.
From 2016-2018, Archer was worth 10.0 fWAR and recorded a sub-4.00 FIP in each season, while keeping his walk rate just below his career-rate of 8%. He has spent the vast majority of his MLB career successfully navigating the American League East and there are a few reasons why some believe he’s primed for a bounce-back, if he’s healthy.
Incorporating more four-seamers and sliders into his repertoire and fewer two-seamers while with Pittsburg led to an improved second-half of 2019 and a strong month of August where he did not allow a home run and posted a 1.05 FIP and 35.5% strikeout rate in 18 innings.
Plenty of MLB teams need starting pitching, but Texas could be a potential landing spot for Chris Archer. The Rangers have been interested in him before and need multiple starting pitchers to fill out their rotation, especially if they deal Lance Lynn this offseason.
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There will be plenty of valuable low-cost options available to MLB teams this offseason, but these three free agents have some of the bigger upsides and potential for a strong 2021 season.