Boston Red Sox: Three offseason free agent targets
The Boston Red Sox enter the offseason with multiple needs on their roster. Here are three free agents they should target this winter.
The 2020 season was one to forget for the Boston Red Sox. The holes in this lineup are obvious, there are clearly multiple needs in the rotation and in the bullpen, and a last-place finish in the AL East (behind the rebuilding Baltimore Orioles) was quite a fall after finishing with a winning record in each of the last four seasons, including a 2018 World Series title.
But let’s focus on the good news when it comes to the Boston Red Sox. The offseason is here, 2020 is in the rearview mirror, and it’s time to focus on 2021.
Don’t expect a magical turnaround for the Red Sox next season, but the Sox should be an improved team. With the MLB playoffs destined to include 28 teams at this point, maybe the Red Sox make a playoff run!
In all seriousness, the Red Sox will be better in 2021. Alex Verdugo is no Mookie Betts, but he had a solid first season in Boston. J.D. Martinez will be back and you have to take the over when betting on Martinez improving on his -1.0 fWAR 2020 season.
Chris Sale won’t be pitching on Opening Day, but he should be ready to return from Tommy John surgery sometime in the first half of the season, and recent reports have been positive about the health of Eduardo Rodriguez who missed 2020 due to heart complications from COVID-19.
There are bright spots, but plenty of holes. Here are three free agents the Boston Red Sox should target this offseason to ensure next season is an improved product.
The Boston Red Sox need a revamped bullpen, including a reliable closer.
The Boston Red Sox need to desperately upgrade their bullpen. This unit logged more innings than any other bullpen in the majors this season, recording 278 innings pitched and finishing with a combined -0.6 Wins Above Replacement, the fourth-worst mark in the major leagues.
The Matt Barnes as a closer experiment didn’t end up going very well as the 30-year-old posted a 4.30 ERA and walked a career-high 13.7% of hitters he faced. For the first time since 2015, Barnes was a negative WAR pitcher and gave up a career-high 1.57 HR/9 IP.
How do the Red Sox shore up the backend of their bullpen? Sign Brad Hand.
The Cleveland Indians have decided to be one of the cheapest teams in baseball this offseason, starting with not picking up Hand’s $10 million option for 2021.
Cleveland’s loss may be Boston’s gain. Hand, a finalist for AL Reliever of the Year honors, is coming off a fantastic 2020 campaign where he saved a league-high 16 games and recorded a career-low 2.05 ERA and 4.7% walk rate with a dominant 33.7% strikeout rate. Best of all, he didn’t allow a single home run in 22 innings.
It seemed as if Hand was beginning his decline back in 2018 just before the San Diego Padres shipped him off to Cleveland in exchange for catcher Francisco Mejia, but Hand proceeded to make an All-Star appearance in 2019 and go 8-6 with a 2.78 ERA, 58 saves, and a 13.0 K/9 IP rate in two-plus seasons with the Indians.
MLBTradeRumors.com is projecting a two-year/$14 million deal for Hand (with the Astros), which is a team-friendly price tag for one of the more dominant closers in the game. If the Red Sox want to spend the money elsewhere and look at a cheaper option, keep an eye on Kirby Yates who will be a low-cost/high-upside option.
Marcell Ozuna would be a huge upgrade for the Boston Red Sox.
Let’s get a little bolder with this next free agent target. The Boston Red Sox are expected to be more conservative this offseason, but they aren’t an organization like the Baltimore Orioles, who are a few years away from competing in the AL East.
Outfielder/DH Marcell Ozuna earned himself a big payday after an electric 2020 season with Atlanta.
The 29-year-old slashed .338/.431/.636 with 18 home runs, a career-high 14.2% walk rate, and an astronomical 179 wRC+. His 2.5 Wins Above Replacement matched his 2019 total in 130 games with the St. Louis Cardinals. His one-year deal with Atlanta to prove to himself and every other team that he could be the type of player he was in Miami worked out pretty well.
If Boston decides not to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. they will be in the market for a corner outfielder, where Ozuna’s defense is a bit of a liability, but not terrible enough to run him out there for one season.
Look ahead to 2022 and there’s a possibility that Marcell Ozuna slides into the DH role. There’s no guarantee that J.D. Martinez rebounds from his dismal 2020 season and he could elect to leave after 2021. Having Ozuna ready to take over full-time DH duties would be a fantastic luxury.
He won’t get George Springer type money, but Ozuna would still cost the Red Sox a decent chunk of change. Maybe, with his defensive limitations and the likelihood that the DH does not return to the NL next season, the market for Ozuna shrinks, leaving a wide-open door for the Boston Red Sox.
Will the Boston Red Sox take a flyer on Corey Kluber?
When it comes to the starting rotation, the Red Sox will enter 2021 with Nathan Eovaldi and a bunch of question marks. They won’t be in the market for Trevor Bauer and there’s a chance that Marcus Stroman accepts New York’s qualifying offer, eliminating the top two rotation options available in this year’s market.
MLBTradeRumors.com predicts Boston to sign Jose Quintana to a two-year/$18 million deal, but the soon-to-be 32-year-old pitched just 10 innings this season before going down with multiple injuries. Let’s also assume Boston spends big on Marcell Ozuna in this scenario (and revamping the bullpen), leaving the Red Sox going after low-cost pitching options.
There isn’t a shortage of quality, low-cost options here. Corey Kluber could be had on a one-year deal while he attempts to show he’s healthy again. Jon Lester is also an option after a down 2020, but he can still provide you much-needed innings as he closes out his career with a team he had enormous success with for the first nine years of his career.
J.A. Happ, Drew Smyly, and Anthony DeSclafani are three other cheap options the Boston Red Sox could consider. But which of these names makes the most sense? Corey Kluber.
Kluber has pitched just 36 innings over the last two seasons, but he was worth a combined 12.7 fWAR in the two seasons before that (2017 and ’18) and logged five-straight seasons with 200+ innings pitched.
Returning to his 7.2 fWAR self from 2017 isn’t going to happen, but if Kluber can return in 2021 healthy and ready to go, he has the best odds to work his way back into the upper-half of a starting rotation, among all pitchers currently on the market who can be had a similar price.
Getting Kluber on a bargain also leaves Boston with room to add another low-cost option to anchor the backend of the rotation while Sale and Rodriguez work their way back to 100%.
Red Sox meet with Alex Cora. dark. Next
The Boston Red Sox have plenty of options this offseason, but these three moves would certainly make this team much better heading into 2021.