MLB free agents: Who are the decent gambles in an odd year?

Trevor Rosenthal

Trevor Rosenthal is a pitcher who doesn’t seem to have any warning bells going off unless you want to believe that his Tommy John repair, done two years ago, will now come apart again.

The right-hander’s fastball is back, though, and he survived San Diego’s vetting process before they acquired him from Kansas City this past summer. The 98-mph fireballer rewarded the Fathers over nine games with a 0.400 WHIP and a 0.00 ERA.

Overall, Rosenthal had a 1.90 ERA and struck out better than two in five batters he faced during the COVID summer. He’ll probably want more that his 2019 contract for $7 million, negotiated with Washington.

Among all these players, he may be the best gamble for the price he likely wants.

Brad Hand

Inquirer.com’s Scott Lauber points out that Brad Hand’s average fastball velocity has dipped over 2 mph since 2018, to 91.4, but he still calls the fact the 31-year-old left-hander cleared waivers “stunning.” Hand had an option for $10 million that Cleveland declined.

Lauber also notes that Hand is the only reliever available to have pitched 300 innings while posting a 2.75 ERA. So, put this all together, and you have another flashing red light like Paxton’s. It might be a smaller red light than the oft-injured starter’s signal, but the question looming about Hand is this: Is he starting to wear out (is there a hidden, incipient injury), or is he just learning how to pitch better as he ages?

There seems to be some evidence that the latter may be the case. It’s sitting right there in Hand’s WHIP column. In 2020 he posted a silly 0.773. Yes, yes, it that occurred in a shortened season (23 appearances), but who’s to say next season won’t also be shorter? That figure is far better than any other WHIP of his career – the next closest was 0.933 three years earlier.

Hand’s FIP figure last season was even more positive last season – down to a most impressive 1.37. This figure represented a second straight improvement in that regard. He fell from 3.23 to 2.80 in 2019. That year he appeared in 60 games.

Indeed, Hand’s FIP figures have been pretty much marching straight downhill to more impressive territory his whole career. It’s hard to tell if Lauber’s declaration that a $10 million price tag for this pitcher is a “bargain,” but what if Hand were actually willing to take less than that, just to sew up a contract in an uncertain year for MLB free agents?