MLB free agents: Who are the decent gambles in an odd year?
As teams are more focused on minimizing costs than ever before, let’s take a look at some worthwhile gambles amongst the MLB free agents.
There are two facts about current MLB free agents beginning to emerge: A) Everybody says this is a bad year to be one because all MLB owners are going to pinch pennies until they squeal because…COVID revenue losses (not to be confused with actual losses). And B) Older guys without teams had better be really healthy.
Nonetheless, players will be needed to play baseball next season before MLB crowds, we hope, so who are the tempting, potential signees?
Keeping in mind that “tempting” doesn’t mean “do it,” which MLB free agents might reasonably be considered early, especially for those sad sack teams that didn’t make the 2020 expanded playoffs like the Orioles and Phillies?
James Paxton
James Paxton comes with flashing red lights because he’s been a medical mess. If he weren’t a rich man, he’d probably be happy he’s Canadian. He’d probably not even mind those alleged long waits for surgery and what-not.
Paxton actually began his career by going on the IL, then the DL, after his first few starts with the Mariners in 2014. That was for a strained lat. At the time that occurred, he was sporting a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.
This was the first of several DL/IL visits, including two for being hit by line drives to his pitching arm. One was before and one after his no-hitter against the Blue Jays in May, 2018.
So…talent, but snake-bit, right? Still….
In the three years before 2020 with the Mariners and Yankees, Paxton was 38-17 with a 1.161 WHIP. And then, of course, he went onto the IL this season with a lumbar cyst and herniated disc (now removed and repaired, microscopically).
MLB.com puts Paxton only on “tier four” (of five) among MLB free agents, despite his age (32 on Nov. 6) and a high 90’s fastball. Is he a chancy choice? Absolutely. He didn’t pitch this year until July 25. The red lights are still flashing, but if Paxton is willing to be reasonable about a one-year contract, he has an opportunity to prove he’s still a major talent since he’s said to be fully recovered.
Because of all his Mickey Mouse injuries, he has pitched only 753.1 innings in eight years.
Trevor Rosenthal
Trevor Rosenthal is a pitcher who doesn’t seem to have any warning bells going off unless you want to believe that his Tommy John repair, done two years ago, will now come apart again.
The right-hander’s fastball is back, though, and he survived San Diego’s vetting process before they acquired him from Kansas City this past summer. The 98-mph fireballer rewarded the Fathers over nine games with a 0.400 WHIP and a 0.00 ERA.
Overall, Rosenthal had a 1.90 ERA and struck out better than two in five batters he faced during the COVID summer. He’ll probably want more that his 2019 contract for $7 million, negotiated with Washington.
Among all these players, he may be the best gamble for the price he likely wants.
Brad Hand
Inquirer.com’s Scott Lauber points out that Brad Hand’s average fastball velocity has dipped over 2 mph since 2018, to 91.4, but he still calls the fact the 31-year-old left-hander cleared waivers “stunning.” Hand had an option for $10 million that Cleveland declined.
Lauber also notes that Hand is the only reliever available to have pitched 300 innings while posting a 2.75 ERA. So, put this all together, and you have another flashing red light like Paxton’s. It might be a smaller red light than the oft-injured starter’s signal, but the question looming about Hand is this: Is he starting to wear out (is there a hidden, incipient injury), or is he just learning how to pitch better as he ages?
There seems to be some evidence that the latter may be the case. It’s sitting right there in Hand’s WHIP column. In 2020 he posted a silly 0.773. Yes, yes, it that occurred in a shortened season (23 appearances), but who’s to say next season won’t also be shorter? That figure is far better than any other WHIP of his career – the next closest was 0.933 three years earlier.
Hand’s FIP figure last season was even more positive last season – down to a most impressive 1.37. This figure represented a second straight improvement in that regard. He fell from 3.23 to 2.80 in 2019. That year he appeared in 60 games.
Indeed, Hand’s FIP figures have been pretty much marching straight downhill to more impressive territory his whole career. It’s hard to tell if Lauber’s declaration that a $10 million price tag for this pitcher is a “bargain,” but what if Hand were actually willing to take less than that, just to sew up a contract in an uncertain year for MLB free agents?
Marcus Semien
Could Marcus Semien be the Didi Gregorius of 2021? Wait, what does that mean, exactly?
This past season Gregorius’ stint with the Phillies really had only one purpose for Gregorius, from the point of view of the player – re-establishing his worth after an unfortunate year.
This is not to say Gregorius isn’t a team player or a selfish person – he doesn’t seem to be either – but he did, in fact, recover his value. He led the Phillies in RBI (40) and played a far more than passable shortstop. The Phillies let him go, at least temporarily – maybe a mistake.
Semien is in a similar situation to Gregorius’ last year. He has to re-build his value after a bad season with the A’s. Although he played most of the games scheduled, he slashed only .223/.305/.374.
However, this is a guy who came in third in the AL MVP voting in 2019, a year in which he appeared in every game and had a slash line of .285/.369/.522. His overall fielding percentage is a couple of ticks below the league average at shortstop (over eight years), but his RF/9 is well above the league average, and doesn’t seem to be noticeably declining as he approaches the age of 30.
He has had seasons with 27 and 33 home runs.
His contract with Oakland for this past season was for $13 million. He might well be available for less than that per year for the right-length contract. If so, he may be an early signee among MLB free agents.
Brad Miller
Like Paxton, Brad Miller is put on tier four of MLB free agents, but he may well be the best utility man available. He is 31, and has played for the Mariners, Rays, Brewers, Indians, Phillies, and Cardinals. St. Louis used him largely as a DH in ’20, but he has also played seven of the nine positions on the field, never having pitched or caught.
His career fielding average is below the league averages, but keep in mind that’s a comparison between guys who usually play a given position most of the time (plus a few other utility men) and him.
His lifetime batting average is .240, including a .737 OPS figure, well above the Bill James minimum for being classified as “average.” The MLB average OPS in the last full season of baseball was .758. Miller once hit 30 home runs in a season, and in 2019 he hit 13. His OPS that year was .894.
Some observers feel Miller was valuable enough to St. Louis in 2020 that they should bring him back and give him a raise over his scheduled $2 million for this past season, which of course he did not entirely collect. The infielder-outfielder’s top salary was $4.5 million with Milwaukee in ‘18.
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Miller’s probably smart enough not to be too greedy, and it says here he will be signed before a lot of other MLB free agents.