MLB: The most intriguing 2020 non-tender candidates
MLB teams have two weeks to decide which of their arbitration-eligible players get tendered a contract for 2021.
By 8 pm ET on Wednesday, December 2nd, MLB teams must make a decision as to whether or not they tender a non-guaranteed contract to any arbitration-eligible player on their roster or allow them to walk and enter free agency.
Early guesses by many national writers assume a larger than normal amount of players being non-tendered on December 2nd, an effect of the ongoing financial turmoil across the MLB landscape.
For those players who are non-tendered, they immediately become free agents and are free to sign with any MLB team ahead of the 2021 season for any amount.
Many of these arbitration-eligible players will be signed to a contract extension, while many will be traded over the coming weeks as teams look to part with players but acquire something in return. If the prognosticators are right, fans could be in for a busy upcoming holiday season.
So, who are some of the bigger names who may be non-tendered in the coming weeks? Here are five notable names to keep a close eye on.
Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber
With the Chicago Cubs ready to completely revamp their entire roster and slash payroll, many big names like Kyle Schwarber are suddenly on the market and available to other teams, possibly for a slightly lower asking price than in a normal offseason.
Schwarber’s case is interesting. He’s coming off back-to-back standout seasons in 2018 and 2019 in which he hit a combined 64 home runs and posted a near .350 on-base percentage with a wRC+ of 115 and 120. He appeared primed to take over as one of the top offensive threats in the National League, before 2020 struck.
Schwarber hit just .188 this season in 59 games, striking out 29.5% of the time and recording a wRC+ of 90 and a lowly 0.4 Wins Above Replacement value. But he did hit 11 home runs and continued to reach base at an impressive clip thanks to a high walk rate.
If Chicago wants to avoid running the risk of having to pay him north of a projected $8 million next season, Schwarber could be a non-tender candidate. Chicago could of course attempt to bring him back on a lighter contract, but if there’s another MLB team out there who likes his bat (like an AL team who can plug him at DH), his days in Chicago could be coming to a close.
The list of MLB non-tenders could be pretty long this winter.
Minnesota Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario
All early signs are pointing to the Minnesota Twins moving on from Eddie Rosario and non-tendering the 29-year-old outfielder who has spent the last six seasons in a Twins uniform.
Rosario is projected to make close to $10 million through arbitration, which may also severely limit his trade value. There aren’t very many, if any, MLB teams looking for a slightly above league-average hitter for that price tag in this market.
But that doesn’t mean Eddie Rosario isn’t worthy of a starting job somewhere. In 57 games for the Twins this season, Rosario hit .257 with 13 home runs, a career-high 8% walk rate, and a 110 wRC+. He hit 32 home runs and 28 doubles as recently as 2019 and doesn’t strike out very much from the left side of the plate. However, he provides little baserunning or defensive value.
If the Twins do move on from Rosario, they have replacements in place in either Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach, two high-profiled outfield prospects currently in the organization.
Toronto Blue Jays infielder Travis Shaw
The Toronto Blue Jays are quickly becoming one of the more aggressive teams to watch this offseason, having already brought back starting pitcher Robbie Ray to shore up the backend of the rotation, and being open about their desire to bring in more high-quality, elite talent.
The Jays already have a great young core in their infield, but Francisco Lindor is available for trade and the Blue Jays have the means to acquire him. They have also recently been connected to free agent second baseman Kolten Wong.
Bringing in either one of these middle infielders would allow Toronto to shuffle the infield around a bit, leaving Travis Shaw as the odd man out. Even if the Jays don’t land a prized middle infielder, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.reportedly wants to be back in the hot corner.
If Toronto believes Shaw is eventually forced to the bench, his projected salary of $5 million will be better used elsewhere.
He hasn’t been able to repeat his 2017 and 2018 numbers in Milwaukee when he hit 31 and 32 home runs, but he does provide value by being able to play both corner infield spots and that power potential still hanging around in his bat.
For MLB teams looking for cheap, non-tender options, there may be a small number of intriguing arms.
New York Mets LHP Steven Matz
Like the Blue Jays, the New York Mets figure to make a lot of noise this offseason with new ownership in place and a renewed sense of hope instilled in a hungry fanbase.
Marcus Stroman was so impressed with the new direction New York appears headed for that he recently signed his qualifying offer, giving New York a big rotation piece to compliment Jacob deGrom heading into 2021.
But the Mets still need rotation help. They could be major players for a Trevor Bauer or Masahiro Tanaka and have already been connected to a number of arms including Charlie Morton, Mike Minor, and Corey Kluber.
Right now, the Mets may not be in a position to non-tender Steven Matz, but if they are confident that they can land a few arms in free agency, Matz and his projected $5+ million 2021 salary may become expendable.
The 29-year-old was bad in 2020, going 0-5 with a 9.68 ERA and -0.7 fWAR, but he is coming off a 1.6 fWAR campaign in 2019 and teammates like deGrom have routinely praised the potential Matz has to find success in the big leagues. Unfortunately, that potential just hasn’t been unlocked yet. Maybe a change of scenery will be the trick.
Philadelphia Phillies RHP Vince Velasquez
Speaking of a change of scenery possibly doing the trick with a player, can the same be said for Phillies starter Vince Velasquez?
Set to make north of $4 million through arbitration, Velasquez is a non-tender candidate of the Phillies who can use that money to help fill other gaps or bring in a new arm to solidify the backend of their rotation.
After years of never reaching that breakout so many people thought was coming, it’s hard to see many Phillies fans being concerned about letting Velasquez walk.
There are few positives to look at for rebuilding teams to take a flyer on Velasquez if he does enter the market. He struck out a career-high 30% of hitters last season and featured a FIP (4.16) a full run and a half lower than his ERA (5.56).
The Phillies may be able to get something small for Velasquez in a possible trade, but odds are more likely he’s ultimately non-tendered.
Next. Where will J.T. Realmuto land?. dark
Once December 2nd rolls around and MLB teams have made their final decisions as to who gets tendered and who doesn’t, buckle up because the MLB offseason will, hopefully, be ready to kick into gear.