Free agent or trade: Which market prevails for shortstops this offseason?
Three high-caliber free agent shortstops merge with three higher-caliber trade candidate shortstops this offseason. How will the markets play out?
It’s not the most opportunistic time to be a free agent in Major League Baseball. With revenues slashed from a short and fanless season, teams are likely to forgo big spending this offseason and instead seek to build their rosters through trades. The circumstantial strategy adjustment will have the worst impact on free agent shortstops.
Only four shortstops are partaking in free agency: Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, and Freddy Galvis. Each player will compete against the others for money and employment over the next few months. They’ll also face off against two shortstops on the trade block and a third that might as well be.
Four against three, the free agents must like their chances. Though, not when the three consists of Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, and Trevor Story.
The Cleveland Indians gave every club the green light to bargain for Lindor, who is under contract for one more season. He headlines all available position players, and with several teams already expressing interest, it’s all but certain he’s wearing a new uniform come April.
Story and Baez will also hit free agency after the 2021 season. The Chicago Cubs grabbed everyone’s attention by making “any veteran” available this offseason, “including shortstop Javier Baez” – per ESPN’s Buster Olney. Baez finished as runner-up in the 2018 NL MVP race, though he had his worst season by far in 2020, recording a .203/.238/.360 slash line.
As for Story, the Colorado Rockies have not openly made him available. However, their downward trajectory and discouraging farm system give reason to believe they will at least listen to offers on their rising star. If the Rockies know what’s best for their future, they will deal Trevor Story before the start of the season.
Reputations precede Lindor, Baez, and Story, but don’t overlook Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, or Andrelton Simmons.
Semien placed third in MVP voting in 2019, a year in which he hit .285 with 33 home runs and 92 RBI. He’s improved immensely with his glove and has found success with his bat despite regularly hitting in a commanding pitcher’s park. The 31-year-old has also proved durable, playing in 159 games in 2018, 162 games in 2019, and 53 – out of 60 – in 2020.
Gregorius had an outstanding pre-free agency campaign with the Philadelphia Phillies. He slashed .284/.339/.448 and launched ten homers. His .345 batting average with runners in scoring position led to 40 RBI, which tied for ninth-most in the NL.
Finally, Simmons missed a chunk of the 2020 season with an ankle injury. Though, in his 30 games, he posted career highs in batting average (.297) and OBP (.346). Simmons’ defensive abilities are, of course, his primary selling point. He’s the total package at shortstop; his range, quickness, and arm strength have contributed to four Gold Gloves over his nine-year career. In four of the last five seasons in which he’s played at least 146 games, he’s won a Gold Glove.
So, how will the offseason pan out for three very capable free agent shortstops? They’ll likely be afterthoughts to the Big Three on the trade track – assuming Lindor, Baez, and Story remain accessible. Look for the major-market clubs like the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, and Angels to fight over those three.
A few teams that may be interested in a free agent SS include the Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Cincinnati Reds.
Milwaukee’s offense was atrocious this season. They would be wise to cash in on a solid bat and reassign Orlando Arcia to third base or first base, two positions that hardly produced in 2020. Left-handed hitting Didi Gregorius would be a great fit, as the Brewers are heavy with right-handed bats. They could platoon Gregorius with Arcia or Luis Urias based on pitching matchups.
The Diamondbacks remain believers within the NL West. They have the money to spend on an upgrade at shortstop, and the upgrade should be Marcus Semien. His gap-to-gap power would play well at Chase Field, and the D’Backs’ lineup could use some reliability.
All three free agent shortstops would be a stellar fit for the Reds. They desperately need to improve their defense on the left side of the infield, which makes Andrelton Simmons a strong candidate. Though, their inconsistent offense could also use a disciplined bat.
Semien, Gregorius, and Simmons will all find a home before March. Simmons will likely sign a short-term contract, while Semien and Gregorius are eligible for long-term contracts. However, it’s unlikely that any of them get the money that they desire. Again, teams won’t be spending this offseason like they usually do, plus there aren’t many clubs in need of a shortstop.
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The big wigs on the trade block have clouded the market for free agent shortstops. The rumors and rumblings surrounding Lindor, Baez, Story, Semien, Gregorius, and Simmons will be fascinating to follow in the coming months. Enjoy!