Colorado Rockies: Three Potential Landing Spots for Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado’s future with the Colorado Rockies has become one of the most intriguing storylines of the 2020-2021 MLB offseason. With a deal likely on the horizon, who are the potential suitors for the superstar third baseman?
Nolan Arenado has cemented himself as one of the league’s premier talents. He boasts a .293/.349/.541 career slash line with 235 home runs and 760 RBIs. To add to his slugging prowess, Arenado is the best defensive third baseman in the league, winning gold gloves in all eight of his major league seasons.
Combined, he has become one of the most valuable players, posting a 38.9 career WAR. In 2019, the Rockies rewarded him with an 8-year/$260 million extension to keep him in Colorado until 2026. At the time, both Arenado and GM Jeff Bridich seemed committed to seeing that contract through. However, it appears that is no longer the case.
Colorado’s intention to move their superstar dates back to last offseason, but all serious talks subsided due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, the rumors have started up again, and they appear more realistic this time around.
There are plenty of reasons why an Arenado trade makes sense:
First, Arenado has reportedly grown frustrated with the organization. When rumors first circulated last year, Nolan said he felt “disrespected” in Colorado. It is clear his relationship with Bridich and the Rockies’ front office has frayed.
Next, like many smaller market teams, the Rockies were hit hard financially by the pandemic. Due to his massive extension, Arenado is owed $199 million over the next six years. He is slated to make $35 million in 2021, which would account for 26.8% of Colorado’s payroll. Owner Dick Monfort has hinted at his desire to cut costs this offseason. Moving Arenado would be a great place to start.
Finally, Arenado has an opt out option following the 2021 season. That means he can eat up over a fourth of their payroll and leave them empty-handed in 2022 and beyond. Given the situation, its likely he will exercise that option and test free agency next season.
So with a franchise-transforming superstar like Nolan Arenado available on the market, potential suitors should be lining up out the door, right? In normal times, yes, but these are not normal times. Most owners are in full savings mode after the financial losses they suffered in 2020, so the market for Arenado is limited to big market teams. Arenado also has a no-trade clause, which gives him veto power
A talent like Arenado will require a large haul of valuable young prospects, so teams pursuing him are going to be in win-now mode. However, if Monfort and Bridich are really committed to unloading his franchise-record contract, there will be someone willing to take him.
Here are the three potential landing spots for Nolan Arenado:
Top Landing Spots for Nolan Arenado: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are everyone’s sleeper pick to make some big splashes this offseason. After doing a great job building their young core around the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio, the Blue Jays are looking to take the next step to be able to compete with the Rays and Yankees in the AL East.
After making the expanded playoffs in 2020, there is a clear motivation to add impact pieces through free agency. While their primary needs are both starting and bullpen arms, they have a hole at third base. Guerrero Jr. came up as a their third baseman of the future, but has since migrated to first base. He can still be their answer long-term (especially after dropping 40 LBs this offseason), but if Toronto has an opportunity to keep him at 1B or DH, they will take it.
That’s where Nolan Arenado comes into the conversation. According to Fangraphs, the Blue Jays were the 22nd ranked defense overall. They could certainly use a four-time Platinum Glove winner to man the hot corner. From an offensive perspective, he would give them a bona fide superstar slugger to compliment their rising youngsters. Inserting his bat in the middle of that already-potent lineup will make them one of the most feared offensive juggernauts in the league.
From a financial standpoint, they have the flexibility to inherit Arenado’s contract. They are currently 19th in payroll with about $75 million on the books and $105 million in tax space. It would certainly be a risk given his opt out option, but Arenado might be willing to stay in Toronto if his presence takes their success to the next level.
The question for the Blue Jays is how much are they willing to deplete their farm system. Entering the 2019 season, they had the 5th ranked farm system in all of baseball. However, their top prospects have graduated into everyday starters. Fortunately, they still boast the game’s 7th best farm system and have plenty of assets to flip for a star.
Their top prospect (MLB.com No. 6), Nate Pearson, got a taste of the big leagues in 2020 and is likely off limits. However, they have three other top 100 prospects in SS/OF Austin Martin (16th), SS Jordan Groshans (70th), and RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (93rd) to include in a trade for Arenado.
A trade for Arenado would prove the Blue Jays are not messing around. They are still a few quality arms away from being a true contender, but Nolan Arenado would make them a force to be reckoned with in the AL East.
Top Landing Spots for Nolan Arenado: New York Mets
Unlike the Blue Jays, it is no secret that the New York Mets plan on making some big moves this offseason. New billionaire owner Steve Cohen has made it clear he wants this team to win now, and will pursue the top free agents on the market.
While there is a lot of excitement buzzing around their new leadership, there is still plenty of work to clean up the mess the last regime made. Cohen started by cleaning out the front office and rehiring former Mets GM Sandy Alderson as team president. The duo now look to hire a prominent front office that is keen on spending, but spending wisely.
The organization has been connected to almost every high-profile name from J.T. Realmuto to DJ Lemahieu. So why not add Nolan Arenado into the mix? The team is clearly in pursuit of powerful right-handed bat, and Arenado has been consistently one of the best since he came into the league.
The Mets have some good pieces in their lineup, but they still struggle immensely driving in runs. In fact, they ranked dead last with 3.77 runners left in scoring position per game in 2020. Arenado is an RBI machine with a league-leading 760 since his debut in 2013. He would provide guys like Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto some much needed protection in the middle of that lineup.
The Mets could also use the help defensively. As a team, they had the 5th-worst fielding percentage at 3B last season with .941 mark. J.D. Davis played the most games at third with 34, but has seen more success as an outfielder. It is clear they could use Arenado’s defense at third, allowing them to move Davis back to the outfield and Jeff McNeil back to second.
Financially, the Mets have the money to pay anybody. With Robinson Cano‘s recent suspension, the Mets will save $24 million in their infield, which they could allocate to Arenado’s $35 million 2021 price tag. They need stars and positive locker room presences, and Arenado has proven to be both throughout his career. They are a big market team looking to win now, which might be intriguing to a guy like Arenado who has spent his entire career in Colorado’s small market.
There is no question the Mets will make some big splashes this offseason. Cohen is the only owner not financially impacted by the pandemic, so It will be interesting to see which route they take to remodel their team. It’s possible they elect to stay away from depleting their already weak farm system. But if they do decide to make a blockbuster trade, Arenado should be at the top of their wishlist.
Top Landing Spots for Nolan Arenado: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are at the top of the baseball world right now. They have two MVPs in Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger, a future hall of famer in Clayton Kershaw, and the 2020 World Series championship to their name. What more could they want?
Apparently, Nolan Arenado.
The Dodgers have been interested in Arenado for years, and now it appears they finally have their best chance to get him. In past years, it was inconceivable that their NL West division rivals would give them their coveted superstar, especially when they were competitive. While they would like to trade him out of the NL West, the Dodgers might be Arenado’s most realistic suitor.
In a tough market for offloading large contracts, the filthy rich Dodgers might be the only team truly willing and able to inherit the $199 million owed to Arenado. Additionally, they could have a void at third if their current 3B Justin Turner decides to leave in free agency (Or they decide to move on). Arenado has watched the Dodgers dominate the NL West for his entire career, so I’m sure he wouldn’t mind waiving his no-trade clause to join them.
The Dodgers also have the farm talent to create a package that would satisfy the Rockies’ steep asking price. The obvious candidate to be the centerpiece of that deal is Gavin Lux. The uber-talented second baseman struggled in 2020, but presents a young, controllable infielder to replace Arenado. Other notable candidates include their young arms Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Brusdar Graterol. If they were to pull the trigger on an Arenado deal, one or more of those pieces would likely be involved.
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Arenado appears to be their top trade target, but they have also expressed interest in other superstar infielders like Francisco Lindor and Kris Bryant. The Dodgers are rich, world champions, and play in the big market of Los Angeles. can pretty much have anything they want, so don’t be surprised if Nolan Arenado is in Dodger Blue next season.