Colorado Rockies: Examining three potential free agent gambles
The Colorado Rockies aren’t expected to make any big additions this offseason, but there are a few free agents who could be possible fits.
Colorado Rockies leadership entered the 2020 season with an unmatched enthusiasm for a ballclub that looked almost exactly the same as a Rockies team that won just 71 games in 2019.
Unsurprisingly, things didn’t improve in Colorado this season, in fact, the Rockies saw their winning percentage drop slightly in 2020 (.433) and watched as the San Diego Padres (the only team that finished below the Rockies in the NL West in 2019) catapulted their way from bottom-feeders to NL West contenders.
Meanwhile, the Rockies floundered at the bottom of the division, were buyers at the 2020 trade deadline for guys like Mychal Givens and Kevin Pillar who, in no shock to anyone, didn’t help put Colorado over the edge and only continued to deplete a farm system in need of significant upgrades.
As Colorado enters a long, cold offseason, ownership has already sent a letter to season ticket holders saying the current financial state of the organization is dire (seems to be every year in Colorado) and no high-profiled free agents will be looking for real estate in or around the Denver area over the next few months.
Although to be fair, the Rockies have nearly $100 million committed to just five players on their active roster. That includes Scott Oberg and Ian Desmond.
There are also the constant Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story trade discussions which will continue to dominate Colorado’s offseason. Despite the constant rumors and speculation, there’s a real opportunity neither gets moved and end up walking away in free agency in the near future.
Putting the negativity and frustrations to the side for a moment, the Rockies do have a current roster capable of being contenders, if ownership was willing to improve the roster. But that’s a massive “if”.
Knowing that the Colorado Rockies won’t be big spenders, let’s take a look at three free agent gambles the Rockies could target as they continue to focus on the fringes of the free agent market.
Could the Colorado Rockies turn around Carlos Rodon?
We’re going to dig deep here to find three names to discuss, including a few recent non-tenders who entered the free agent market on Wednesday evening. Until the Colorado Rockies decide they want to be major players in free agency, the options are fairly limited.
The first intriguing option is starting pitcher Carlos Rodon. Rodon was non-tendered by the Chicago White Sox after being set to earn close to $5 million in arbitration this winter.
It’s been a rough road for Rodon over the last few years, pitching just over 40 innings the last two seasons while suffering from shoulder and elbow injuries (included Tommy John surgery). He came back for 7.2 frames in 2020, giving up seven earned runs and striking out six.
His last healthy season came in 2018 where Rodon went 6-8 with a 4.18 ERA and was worth 2.2 Wins Above Replacement through 20 starts. He may not have been living up to the hype of being a former first round MLB draft pick, but his first four seasons in the majors showed evidence of a solid backend of the rotation piece.
Rodon’s fastball velocity ticked up a bit this season but is still 1-2 mph off his normal 94 mph+ four-seamer he featured when fully healthy. If he enters 2021 finally healthy and fresh, perhaps that velocity returns. He also owns a prominent slider that has a long track record of producing whiffs.
Since 2018, Rodon’s slider has limited hitters to a .183 wOBA, which ranks among the best in all of baseball.
Maybe a change of scenery will help. After his recent injury history and limiting action, he’s sure to come at a minimal cost. Rodon will be 28 next season, so he still has a bit of youth on his side as well. If the Colorado Rockies are looking for a backend starter with upside, they may take a flyer on him.
Who plays first base for the Colorado Rockies?
One of the many questions facing the Colorado Rockies in 2021 is who will play first base? Josh Fuentes is one option, but with just 54 major league games under his belt and enormous strikeout numbers in his limited sample size, he isn’t an everyday option.
Ian Desmond may be back in 2021 after opting-out of the 2020 season, but at 35 and coming off three negative-WAR seasons before missing all of 2020, Desmond doesn’t appear to be a reliable option either.
The class of first base free agents is small and largely consists of options like CJ Cron who will end up signing minor league deals late in the offseason, but there are two cheap options that may interest the Colorado Rockies.
One of those is Carlos Santana. Santana appeared in all 60 games for Cleveland last season, but hit just .199 with eight home runs and a wRC+ of 95. It was a notable dip from his .281/.397/.515 batting line, 34 home runs, and 4.4 fWAR 2019 season.
Santana has put up impressive numbers across his career, including a career 15.5% walk rate and 16.5% strikeout rate, but 2020 may have been a sign of decline, or, was it just 2020 being 2020?
MLBTradeRumors.com predicts a one-year/$6 million deal for Santana this offseason which is very reasonable for a bounceback candidate.
But we are talking about the Colorado Rockies, so that price may be a little high. Another cheaper option could be Mitch Moreland. Moreland hit .265 with 10 home runs between Boston and San Diego in 2020.
The Colorado Rockies could really use a left-handed reliever.
As of early-December, the Colorado Rockies do not have a single left-handed reliever on their projected bullpen roster, according to Fangraphs Roster Resource, meaning they should probably look at bringing one in. Just a thought.
Brad Hand is the top left-handed reliever, meaning he won’t be going to Colorado. But there are a handful of intriguing options available.
Andrew Chafin has plenty of experience in the NL West after spending seven seasons with the Diamondbacks, posting three-straight seasons of a FIP lower 3.39 from 2017-2019, but despite the ability to rack up strikeouts, Chafin walks high rate of hitters and really struggled in 2020 in both Arizona and Chicago.
Chasen Shreve is an interesting option after being non-tendered by the New York Mets on Wednesday. Shreve has bounced around the league since 2014 but is coming off 17 outings in New York where he struck out 33% of hitters and held opponents to a .189 average. Some of the red flags with Shreve would be his high walk and home run rates.
Lastly, there’s Sean Doolittle. Doolittle strugged in Washington last season and was shut down early with an oblique strain, but he is a bounceback candidate a team like the Rockies could take a flyer on. From 2017-2019, Doolittle recorded 78 saves and was worth 4.5 Wins Above Replacement.
Best case scenario, one of these arms, or someone similar, rebounds in Colorado and can be flipped at the deadline when relievers are in high demand.
Next. Three destinations for Nolan Arenado. dark
It won’t be an exciting offseason for the Colorado Rockies, but there are a few gambles worth taking to see if at least one pays off.