Minnesota Twins: Surprise non-tender Matt Wisler is worth a flyer

Surprisingly, the Minnesota Twins have non-tendered RHP Matt Wisler after a breakout 2020 campaign.

Let the 2020 MLB offseason finally begin. After a night full of non-tenders, a few trades, and the occasional head-scratcher, more than 50 additional players were added to the current free agent pool, including former Minnesota Twins relief pitcher Matt Wisler.

The Twins expectedly decided to move on from outfielder Eddie Rosario and his projected salary of around $10 million next season, but the non-tendering of Matt Wisler was a bit of surprise. A quick look at some of his numbers paints the picture of a bullpen arm who a few different teams may have interest in now that he’s on the open market.

With Trevor May off to New York and both Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard also gone from the roster, Minnesota’s bullpen is even thinner after moving on from Wisler, adding to the surprise of this move.

Coming off a career-year, Wisler appeared in 18 games for the Minnesota Twins this season, posting a 1.07 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a .165 average against across 25.1 innings of work. He also struck out a career-high 32.7% of hitters with his oft-used and devastating slider.

Largely a one-pitch pitcher, Wisler used his slider 83.4% of the time in 2020, limiting hitters to a .143 average against and producing a 38% whiff rate. As you can see below, it’s a pretty filthy pitch and it’s no wonder Wisler relies on it so heavily.

A Statcast darling, Wisler ranked in the 90th percentile or better in multiple different metrics, including hard-hit percentage, expected ERA/BA/SLG/wOBA, and whiff percentage.

Those numbers are all fantastic and describe a middle-inning reliever that any team in baseball would love to have, so why did the Minnesota Twins non-tender him?

Well, there are a few red flags. While Wisler posted a 1.07 ERA, he also recorded a 3.35 FIP and 4.99 xFIP. He also saw his walk rate nearly double, climbing to over 13%, and even though he gave up just two home runs on the season, his groundball rate tanked to below 24%.

2020 provided a small sample size, but it would appear as if Wisler is a strong candidate to take a step back next season. However, his improvements can’t be overlooked and despite those red flags, many teams in need of bullpen depth will likely be looking very closely at bringing in Wisler over the next few days or weeks.

Something clearly clicked this year for the now-former Minnesota Twins reliever. If he can replicate that success again in 2021, Minnesota’s loss will be another team’s noteworthy gain.