The Chicago Cubs find themselves in an impossible situation this offseason
The Chicago Cubs’ present and future weigh on the shoulders of Jed Hoyer this offseason. Will he stick with his stars or move on from them?
You think you have it tough shopping for your significant other, three children, and four nieces this holiday season. Try filling Jed Hoyer’s shoes as he weighs the Chicago Cubs‘ present vs. their future through educated guessing and wishful thinking.
Here are the challenges that Hoyer and the Chicago Cubs face this offseason:
Three of Chicago’s famed core players have expiring contracts at the end of the 2021 season. Anthony Rizzo‘s 7-year/$41 million deal comes to an end, as does Kris Bryant‘s and Javier Baez‘s arbitration eligibility. Hoyer must soon decide which player, or players, he wants to pay for the extended future – if any of them.
He could trade each integral piece for a collection of younger pieces, a strategy that could catalyze a Cubs farm system ranked 23rd-best in baseball by MLB.com. If doing so, Hoyer commits to a full-on rebuild, which will set the team back for however many years and will rattle a Cubs’ faithful that backed the “championship or bust” mantra the past four seasons.
To make matters more difficult for Jed Hoyer, none of his marquee players with expiring contracts had anything close to a decent 2020 season. Rizzo come out the best with a .222 batting average, .342 OBP, and 103 OPS+. That leaves Javier Baez/Kris Bryant in the cellar with their .203/.206 batting averages, .238/.293 OBPs, and 59/73 OPS+s.
Trade leverage for each player only suffered, and after seasons like those, one begins doubting whether Rizzo, Baez, or Bryant are worth keeping.
It starts with Javier Baez and Kris Bryant
At this point, any offseason plans for the Chicago Cubs seem to be tentative. The only definitive moves made by Hoyer were not tendering contracts to outfielders Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora. The Cubs President of Baseball Operations did, however, express a willingness to trade “any veteran” as the next couple of months transpire.
It seems very likely that Chicago deals either Baez or Bryant sometime between now and next July. Ownership would be foolish to invest in both sluggers for the long-term; therefore, they might as well see what can be gained by a trade.
The Cubs tendered contracts to Baez and Bryant for the 2021 season, which means their salaries would factor into trade negotiations. If the Cubs are willing to consume one or both players’ salaries, then they’ll have more command over trade packages. Conversely, a desire to transfer their salary burdens to an acquiring team would cost them negotiating power.
Chicago could wait until the July 31st trade deadline to complete a deal. This way Baez and Bryant earn their paychecks while still wearing Chicago Cubs uniforms. Each player could gain trade value if amidst impressive seasons. That said, they could also lose value if their play is lackluster.
Every scenario is a gamble for Jed Hoyer. Unless fortune-telling is in his repertoire, he’ll have to trust his instincts and not look back when it comes to his handlings of two of the most impactful players the franchise has possessed in decades.
Plans for Anthony Rizzo
The Chicago Cubs exercised their club option on Rizzo’s contract for the 2021 season. Owed $16.5 million, Rizzo should remain with the team through its next 162 games.
There’s a chance the Cubs try to re-sign him, though the offer would have to weigh on the side of team-friendly. He’s 31 years old, so unless the front office maintains its winning intentions, Rizzo will likely latch on with a contending club to spend the rest of his prime years.
He’s already accomplished the greatest feat in club history by ending a 108-year championship drought. And the taste of a dynasty would permanently cease if the Cubs were to trade away their top players. It’s hard to find a reason for Rizzo to stick around.
Other players of concern
If Chicago opts to rebuild by trading one or both Javier Baez and Kris Bryant and send Rizzo on his merry way, they might as well offload a few more vets.
Willson Contreras, the Cubs’ 28-year-old backstop, is on pace to become a free agent after the 2022 season. Contreras is one of the better offensive catchers in MLB, making him considerably valuable.
The Cubs are probably stuck with Jason Heyward and the $44 million remaining on his contract. Starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks are their other significant liabilities. Darvish has $59 million left on his contract, though he does have the autonomy to opt-out after each season leading up to 2023. Hendricks signed a four-year, $55 million contract extension that takes effect next year.
Both starters are trending upward; Hendricks posted a career-low 2.88 ERA over 12 starts in 2020, and Darvish finished second in Cy Young voting with a 2.01 ERA and an 8-3 record.
If a contender is looking to add an ace, the top of the Cubs rotation is an ideal place to start. Money would need to be worked out, but Chicago has an avenue for shedding at least part of two substantial contracts and swapping their best pitchers for promising youth.
dark. Next. Three landing spots for Kyle Schwarber
We’ll see what Jed Hoyer and the Chicago Cubs have in store for their players and fans over the next year. The decision process begins with Javier Baez and Kris Bryant. The way Hoyer manages those two will indicate subsequent moves for his remaining veterans.