Phillies: Three moves that might help a very bad situation
The Philadelphia Phillies are in a rough spot at the moment. Here are three moves that could make a difference.
The notion of narrowing suggestions for the Philadelphia Phillies this off-season to three involves two problems. The first is the assumption the team will do something meaningful this winter despite all kinds of signals they won’t. The second involves embracing the thought they won’t re-sign J.T. Realmuto.
Of the Phillies’ serious needs, though – I count seven, a shortstop, a catcher, at least two better starters, and three better relief pitchers – which three moves would make the most strategic sense?
Phillies’ managing partner John Middleton complained recently (twice, by my count) about the fact the Phillies have been trying to win by signing or trading for players from other teams instead of developing their own. But if Middleton expects fans to come back to the park, he’s going to have to continue doing that to a certain extent because his minor leaguers are wanting.
Of the six Phillies players recently protected from the Rule 5 draft, one might have an impact at the MLB level. Some day. On the 40-man roster, Cole Irvin has been almost ready for two years now. Vince Velasquez has been almost ready for six.
So…
Move Number 1
Trade Scott Kingery for a promising, young starting pitcher, but a pitcher who seems sure to jump forward from the Triple-A level now, or a player who has at least a little MLB experience.
Who might that be? A number of pitchers would surely fit the bill, but how about the Pirates’ Mitch Keller?
Wait, you say, would any team want Kingery after his dreadful 2020 campaign? This is a good question. Kingery was clearly affected by his COVID infection this year. Also, his swing is too long now. But he is entering his age-27 season under a reasonable contract through at least 2023, after which expensive options could kick in.
The Pirates would likely have enough sense to play Kingery at second base (unlike the Phillies), and the trade should make the player more receptive to a hitting instructor’s directive to shorten his swing.
If need be, minor leaguers could be added to the deal, or the Phillies could eat some of Kingery’s contract. Or both.
In Keller, the Phillies would be getting a pitcher in his age-25 year who seems at least as promising as the back end of their rotation now, or anyone likely to challenge for the fourth and fifth slots in it. Keller “boasts” a 2-6 MLB record (1-1 in ’20), but improvements between ’19 and ’20 in WHIP, from 1.833 to 1.246, and in LOB percentage from 59.6% to 93.8%.
Pull the trigger. It’s time for Scotty Jetpax to go and to put Jean Segura at second to stay for at least a year.
Move Number 2
Again, John Middleton is apparently annoyed about the non-development of players by the Phillies in the minors, and the team’s attendant need to sign or trade for players since that development isn’t occurring. But since there was literally no minor-league baseball last year, this complaint is a bit like whining about the girlfriend you broke up with last year – or five years ago.
This isn’t the year for the Phillies to refuse entirely to consider free agents or trades. If they’re not going to re-sign Realmuto, the Phils must go to the second most important position on the field – shortstop. In Little League we all observed that short went to the best player on the team (when he wasn’t pitching). At the MLB level, the position is just as important, arguably the most important position assuming you don’t have a best-in-MLB player elsewhere on the field. The Phillies need to re-sign Didi Gregorius.
And hey, John Middleton, Gregorius actually played for the Phillies last year – and very well, leading the team in RBI and games played – all 60. Every third day the masked shortstop didn’t drive in a run (on average); the two days before that statistical day, he did, exactly one a day.
In 2020, Gregorius’ contract called for $14 million for one year, which of course, he did not entirely collect. This contract was generous because the player was a bit of an unknown quantity last winter, a guy turning 30 who had posted weak ’19 figures since he was recovering from Tommy John surgery.
However, Gregorius went for the one-year deal, no doubt in part, to re-unite with Joe Girardi, who managed him three years with the Yankees. And thus, as much as any Phillies player thrived in ’20, Gregorius thrived, driving up his batting average 46 points from the previous year and his OPS 109 points.
Interestingly, although Gregorius’ 40 RBI led the Phillies last summer, in the previous year he actually drove in more runs per games played despite hitting .238, registering an RBI in nearly three out of four contests. However, he did deposit some impressive rockets in the empty seats behind right field at Citizens Bank Park in ’20. If this is a player who is consciously paying attention to launch angles, that isn’t hurting him.
Offer him $11 million, $12 million, and $15 million for the next three years. It doesn’t matter how Middleton manages that. He should. Baseball Reference’s projection of 55 RBI for Gregorius next season is too low.
Move Number Three
Then there’s the matter of the Phillies dreadful bullpen. At the moment, their 40-man squad includes 14 pitchers who are arguably relievers. Some of them were part of the team’s dreadful bullpen crowd from last season.
About five of those 14 pitchers may pitch a significant number of innings for the Phillies this year, and if you passed a list of those five around to Phillies fans, you would get a lot of silence and heads shaking.
Is Victor Arano or JoJo Romero an exception to that statement? Maybe. You have to dig into Romero’s game logs, though, to see that, and assume Arano’s shoulder will be all right next season.
So, we need a reliever who might arguably be as valuable as three other relievers, the need indicated.
And the winner is Trevor Rosenthal. Like Gregorius, Rosenthal is recovering from Tommy John surgery with everything now running smoothly. After a stellar nine games (0.00 ERA, 0.400 WHIP) with the Padres after leaving the Royals this past year, the right-handed flamethrower likely wants more than the $7 million he made under his last full season’s contract in 2019.
It is tempting to say Rosenthal would automatically slide into the closer’s role with the Phillies, and if they signed him, that might very well happen. However, it might as reasonably be expected that, whenever Hector Neris is throwing his splitter well, Rosenthal could set him up. Neris is streaky.
Perhaps it would depend on which batters were coming to the plate in the eighth inning.
Next. Middleton denies Wheeler rumors. dark
Bottom Line
A Chinese proverb asserts that a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. The Phillies have more than three needs, but the absolute minimum number of moves needed this off season for them to compete with the Braves and now-wealthy Mets in the NL East is three. If the team could make the three changes suggested here, get a little lucky with the back end of their rotation and the rest of a bullpen that includes Neris and Rosenthal, they might do something they haven’t for nine years now.
The Phillies could barely make the playoffs.