San Francisco Giants: Matt Wisler signing is a solid gamble

Adding Matt Wisler to their bullpen could pay off well for the San Francisco Giants.

It’s a harmless deal for the San Francisco Giants, signing a relief pitcher a one-year contract worth $1.15 million to see if he can help a bullpen that struggled in 2020, but the signing of Matt Wisler has the potential to be a really good for the Giants as they enter the free agent market.

We’re also talking about a bullpen arm who put up some weird numbers in a pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but from the daily news outside of the baseball world to the recent announcements across minor league baseball, there’s a lot of depressing news everywhere, so why not hype up a bargain bullpen find of the San Francisco Giants.

Wisler was surprisingly non-tendered by the Minnesota Twins last week after putting together a breakout year for the organization.

Making 18 appearances, Wisler recorded a 1.07 ERA, struck out an absurd 32.7% of hitters he faced, and was worth a career-high 0.6 Wins Above Replacement. A former top prospect with the Atlanta Braves and starting pitching prospect, Wisler proved to be a solid bullpen piece for a playoff team last season, but was it a quirky year or the beginning of a real breakthrough?

There are a few eyebrow-raising numbers to look at when discussing Wisler and his potential success moving forward with the San Francisco Giants.

For one, he threw his slider 83% of the time. That’s not a typo. To rely so heavily on one pitch, it has to be pretty good, right? It was. Opponents hit .143 against Wisler’s slider and whiffed on the pitch 38% of the time. Hitters didn’t chase it out of the strike zone very often, but they did struggle to barrel it up or make hard contact.

There’s also his 23.6% groundball rate. Wisler didn’t produce very many groundballs, but he did generate a high number of popups and weak contact. Can he use his fastball more effectively next season to make his slider work better for him and produce more groundballs? TBD.

And despite a 1.07 ERA, Wisler’s final FIP was 3.35, with an xFIP of 4.99. When looking at that xFIP, with his lack of home runs allowed despite being an extreme flyball pitcher, and his 13% walk rate, there are real causes for concern and you can easily make an argument as to why non-tendering him was the right decision if you’re the Twins.

But the San Francisco Giants need bullpen help and Wisler showed that there’s plenty to work with. San Francisco’s bullpen ranked 25th in baseball with a -0.6 fWAR in 2020 and averaged the third-fewest strikeouts per game.

At just over $1 million, if Wisler can make the necessary adjustments to keep him from regressing as heavily as some expect he may in 2021, the San Francisco Giants will have found themselves a bargain bullpen arm as they hunt for a playoff spot next season.