The St. Louis Cardinals outfielders disappointed in 2020. Is there any hope that they can rebound for the 2021 campaign?
The St. Louis Cardinals offense was a major disappointment in 2020. While the pitching staff more than held its own, the Cardinals finished dead last in the National League with 51 homers and 73 doubles. They were not much better in other areas, finishing 14th in the NL in hits, runs, and OPS. Those struggles were a major contribution to their disappointing 30-28 finish last season.
The outfield was a major part of the Cardinals disappointing production. While Harrison Bader was one of only two regulars to finish with an OPS+ over 100, the rest of the outfield struggled. Dexter Fowler continued to disappoint during his time in St. Louis, and Tyler O’Neill was a disaster at the plate. Top prospect Dylan Carlson was not much better, struggling to find his footing in the shortened season.
At this point, the outfield appears as though it will be much the same in 2021. Bader is secure in his spot in center, while the Cardinals depth chart has him flanked by O’Neill and Lane Thomas. Fowler is theoretically on the bench, with Carlson serving as the fourth outfielder.
O’Neill’s metrics do not paint that pretty of a picture. He produced a .173/.261/.360 batting line over his 157 plate appearances, with seven homers and five doubles. His exit velocity and hard hit rate were both in the lower half of the league, while his whiff percentage was in the 11th percentile. Based on the numbers, O’Neill was expected to produce a .196/.267/.376 batting line, which was still somehow better than his actual production.
Thomas did not receive much playing time last year, with just 40 plate appearances. He produced a meager .111/.200/.250 batting line in that time, but three of his four hits went for extra bases, with two doubles and a triple. He fared much better during his trial in 2019, and has been a solid hitter in the minors, giving the Cardinals hope that he can improve upon Fowler’s production.
Although he is listed as the fourth outfielder, Carlson may be the Cardinals’ best hope for improvement. His .200/.252/.364 batting line with seven doubles and three homers in 119 plate appearances is hardly impressive, but he was expected to perform at a higher level. His expected batting line of .246/.303/.443 would be a dramatic improvement, and would give St. Louis another competent bat in the lineup.
To this point, the Cardinals have two routes they can follow. The first is to hope that their young outfielders can progress and find their footing over a normal season, that their struggles last season were a fluke. The other will be to land help in free agency and hope that a corner outfielder can be had at a point within their budget.
The St. Louis Cardinals need more production from their outfield in 2021. That does not seem likely with the players they currently have on the roster.