Trevor Bauer is not worth the cost in free agency

Trevor Bauer may be considered the top pitcher in free agency, but he carries a great deal of risk. He is not worth the price.

There is a great deal of speculation surrounding Trevor Bauer in free agency. Considered to be the best pitcher available, he has been open in his time on the market, providing a fascinating look into the machinations of the process.

As the top starter on the market, Bauer is set to receive a significant payday. He is viewed as an ace, the type of pitcher that can put a team over the top. Bauer could be the missing piece for a team on the cusp of the postseason, potentially allowing for a deep playoff run.

One can understand the reason for such optimism. Bauer dominated in 2020, leading the National League with a 1.73 ERA and a 0.795 WHiP. He struck out 100 batters with just 17 walks in his 73 innings, taking home a well deserved Cy Young award as he timed his career season perfectly.

While Bauer did have success in 2018, his performance last year is a distinct outlier when it comes to his overall career. Prior to 2020, Bauer had posted a career 4.09 ERA and a 1.295 WHiP over his 1117 innings, striking out 1179 batters with 437 walks. Those are solid enough numbers for a middle of the rotation arm, but that is not ace material.

Bauer has displayed considerable improvement over the past three years however. He struggled upon being traded to the Reds, but looked more like the top of the rotation arm that he is being marketed as. But can he be that pitcher consistently?

That is the question teams have to ask themselves. Bauer is in the midst of his prime and should remain as a solid pitcher over the next few years. But there is a major difference between being a solid pitcher and a potential staff ace. And Bauer will be paid as the latter.

Some team will make the investment necessary to land Trevor Bauer. But it is fair to wonder whether or not he will be the staff ace that teams are hoping for.