First base: Pujols, and then who?

MLB Network continues dive into best of expansion era

Was Albert Pujols a better first baseman than Miguel Cabrera, Willie McCovey or Frank Thomas MLB Network personalities Brian Kenny and Bob Costas agreed on Pujols’ superiority during the fourth installment of the network’s Top 10 Right Now Wednesday.

That episode included a segment on post-1969 first basemen.

The ranking is greatly influenced by whom you define as a first baseman. Almost all of the leading candidates spent considerable time at other positions … assuming you count DH as a position.

Still, the matter of best first baseman of the expansion era appears to come down to this: Pujols, then who?

Before assessing how accurate the Kenny and Costas lists were, here are their respective top 10s:

Given the fundamentally offensive nature of the position, our four criteria for ranking first basemen are heavily weighted toward that aspect of their games. When all four categories are assessed, the player with the average ordinal score closest to a perfect rating of 1.0 is the winner.

For the most part, the players we’ve assessed played more games at first base than any other position. The exceptions – Frank Thomas, Dick Allen, Lance Berkman – were included by MLB Top Ten Right Now because they did not fit into any other category.

Alphabetically, the 30 nominees are:  Dick Allen, Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman, Miguel Cabrera, Will Clark, Cecil Cooper, Freddie Freeman, Andres Galarraga, Steve Garvey, Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Grace, Pedro Guerrero, Todd Helton, Keith Hernandez, Ryan Howard, Don Mattingly, Willie McCovey, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Eddie Murray, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Tony Perez, Albert Pujols, Willie Stargell, Mark Teixeira, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Mo Vaughn and Joey Votto.

The criteria are:

1. Five-year peak performance with OPS+ as the yardstick
2. Cumulative OPS+ over the course of their careers
3. Career MVP shares
4. Career Defensive Wins Above Replacement.

MLB expansion-era first basemen: Five-season peak performance

This criteria is simply the player’s best five-season average OPS+.

Here are the 10 best peak averages among the 30 candidates.

First base is a slugger’s position and peak OPS+ is a slugger’s category. So it’s no surprise that this top 10 is dominated by power guys. The category leader, McCovey, actually had a slightly better peak OPS+ between 1966-70, but that does not predominantly fit within the definition of the expansion era. His 194.6, though, is still the best peak rating of any of the contenders.

McGwire’s 1996-2000 period was simply transformative. He averaged 55 home runs per season, leading the majors four of those five years. His 277 home runs over that five-season span was 20 more than Sammy Sosa, 21 more than Ken Griffey Jr., and 75 more than Barry Bonds.

Pujols was not as dimensionally a home-run hitter, but he was overall a more accomplished batsman. Between 2006-10 he won an on-base title, three slugging titles and batted .327.

The surprise on this list might be Helton, who in two seasons of eligibility has failed to surpass 30 percent support in Hall of Fame voting. Perhaps the writers need a redo. In 2000 Helton won the slash line Triple Crown at .372/.463/.698. He averaged 103 RBIs during that window, adding three Gold Gloves to his four Silver Slugger awards.

MLB expansion-era first basemen: MVP shares

Peer and contemporary recognition is one important tool for measuring a player’s skill. This category is designed to factor that into the overall evaluation. For this offensive-oriented position, the best choice is MVP shares.

Each player’s MVP share is based on the percentage of available MVP votes he received during the course of his career.

Here’s the ranking of the 10 highest shares among the 30 players who were considered.

At this stage in the exercise, a positional hierarchy is clearing asserting itself. Four players – Thomas, Pujols, Cabrera and Stargell – have ranked in the top 10 in all three categories.

All four were among the top five in this category. Pujols is a three-time MVP selection – 2005, 2008 and 2009 – who was selected unanimously in 2009. Thomas won the award unanimously in 1993 and repeated in 1994, losing only three first-place votes.

Cabrera won in 2012 – his Triple Crown season – and repeated in 2013, although both years Mike Trout denied him unanimous status. He was runner-up in 2010.

Stargell famously split the Most Valuable Player award with Keith Hernandez in 1979. Between 1971-73, he finished second to Joe Torre, third behind Johnny Bench and second to Pete Rose.

MLB expansion-era first basemen: Defensive WAR

First base is primarily an offensive position, but defensive play should not be entirely ignored.

Today, the best category for assessing first base play is probably Outs Above Average. But data for that calculation is not available for the pre-Statcast era, leaving Defensive Wins Above Replacement as the next best choice.

It reflects the number of runs a player is projected to have saved his team due to his defensive play over the course of his career.

As with our previous review of left fielders, one need only peruse this top 10 to grasp the offensive nature of this position. The average score of the rated players is minus-10.9 runs. Among the 30 rated players, only Keith Hernandez produced a positive defensive WAR impact over the course of his career.

Here are the top 10 for first basemen since 1969.

Hernandez’ status atop this category is, in terms of the overall ranking, a saving grace. Despite ranking only 27th, 20th and  13th in the three previous categories, his defensive excellence will elevate him into overall top 10 contention.

The other category leaders, Teixeira and Olerud, will not fare as well. Neither ranked above 18th in any of the offensive or popularity-oriented categories.

The category’s true weight, though, lies in the distinction it draws among the four previous front-runners, Thomas, Pujols, Stargell and Murray. Pujols’ fourth placement in Defensive WAR creates a clear distinction with Murray in 17th and especially with Thomas and Stargell. Both are buried toward the bottom of the category list.

MLB expansion-era first basemen: The final tabulation

The tabulation below is based on the average ordinal placement of each of the 30 first basemen in all four categories. A score of 1.0, indicating a first-place rank in all four categories, would be perfect. The list also shows the first baseman’s standing on the Kenny and Costas lists.

Pujols finished fourth, fourth, first and fourth in the four categories, making him an easy selection atop the overall list. No other first baseman was close to that level of consistency because all had either offensive, defensive or popularity shortcomings.

In fact Bagwell, the overall runner-up, was the only other player among the 30 candidates who secured a rating among the top half of all four categories. Bagwell was sixth in peak OPS+, 13th in cumulative career OPS+, seventh in MVP shares, and 13th in Defensive WAR.

Votto ranked third because of top 10 rankings in peak OPS+, MVP shares and Defensive WAR. He was 22nd in cumulative career OPS+.

Murray’s 20th place finish in Defensive WAR threw him behind both Bagwell and Votto overall. The same was true of Thomas, Cabrera, McGwire and Stargell.

But McCovey took the true hit for his defense. Despite rating first and first in the two OPS+ categories, he stood just 20th in MVP shares and lower than that for Defensive WAR. That sank him all the way to 22nd overall.

Although he rated Bagwell way too low – only 10th – Costas had the better overall list. He nailed nine of the actual top 10, missing out only on Hernandez, who on the show he listed as a “just miss.” He included Thome, 15th on this list, instead of Hernandez.

Kenny omitted four of this list’s top 10, among them Votto and Murray, who ranked third and fourth. He also left out McGwire and Helton. In their place, Kenny preferred Allen, Thome, McGriff and McCovey. They finished 14th, 15th, 20th and 22nd respectively.