Baseball Hall of Fame voters pitched a shutout Tuesday. But the down-ballot results still represented a victory for three candidates.
Scott Rolen, Todd Helton and Billy Wagner each made significant jumps of at least 12 percentage points with voters.
That’s noteworthy. Since 2010, there have been 18 instances involving 11 players which met two criteria:
- They had received at least 30 percent of votes as down-ballot hopefuls in a previous election and enjoyed at least a 12-point jump in a subsequent election.
- Ten of the 11 eventually won enshrinement.
The only exception, Curt Schilling, has seen his ballot share stall more for assessments of his off-field activities than for his record. Back in 2016, Schilling received 52.3 percent of the vote, a total that was up from 39.2 percent the previous election.
In his fourth year of candidacy, Rolen this time was fourth overall with 52.9 percent. He was the highest vote-getter among the non-controversial portion of the ballot, trailing only Schilling (71 percent), Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.
Rolen’s share of the vote rose by 17.6 percentage points, from 35.3 percent last year. In 2019, his first season on the ballot, he had received 17.2 percent.
Helton saw his share rise from 29.2 percent in 2020, his third season of eligibility, to 44.9 percent, a 15.7 percent jump. He ranked fifth, behind Rolen.
Wagner’s share rose from 31.7 percent in 2020 to 46.4 percent. This was his sixth year of eligibility.
For all three, their increases continued a process of building momentum that began last year. On the 2020 ballot, Rolen’s support had risen by 18 percentage points, Wagner’s by 15 and Helton’s by 13.
The results might also prove encouraging to a fourth down-ballot candidate, Gary Sheffield. His share rose from 30.5 percent in 2020 to 40.6 percent this year, a 10 percent boost. In his seventh season on the ballot, Sheffield finished eighth.
The results were less favorable for other down-ballot candidates. Jeff Kent, whose candidacy has been pushed hard in some circles, got only 32.4 percent support, an increase of less than 5 percent. Andruw Jones, in his fourth year on the ballot, did pick up 14.5 percentage points. But Jones was starting from only a 19.4 percent base, so his share still stood at just 33.9 percent.
He ranked ninth, one spot ahead of Kent.