MLB all-time lists: Best third basemen of the expansion era

The best third baseman of the expansion era was either Mike Schmidt or George Brett. Everybody agrees on that addition to the MLB all-time lists, right?

MLB Network personalities Brian Kenny and Bob Costas did agree on that during the fifth installment of the network’s Top 10 Right Now Wednesday. That episode included a segment rating post-1969 third basemen. Both selected Schmidt for the era’s top spot with Brett a solid second.

But is that presumption correct? Or have other, more recent third basemen, eclipsed Schmidt and/or Brett among the position’s expansion era elite.

Before assessing how accurate the Kenny and Costas lists were, here are their respective top 10s:

Third base is a position demanding an unusual combination of power plus defensive facility. That being so, our five expansion era ratings criteria attempt to present a balanced recipe. When all five categories are assessed, the player with the average ordinal score closest to a perfect rating of 1.0 is the winner.

The criteria are:

1. Five-year peak performance with OPS+ as the yardstick
2. Cumulative OPS+ over the course of their careers
3. Career MVP shares
4. Career Defensive Wins Above Replacement
5. Career baserunning runs.

Alphabetically, the 30 nominees are:  Nolan Arenado, Sal Bando, Buddy Bell, Adrian Beltre, Wade Boggs, Alex Bregman, George Brett, Ken Caminiti, Ron Cey, Doug DeCinces, Josh Donaldson, Darrell Evans, Gary Gaetti, Troy Glaus, Bob Horner, Chipper Jones, Evan Longoria, Manny Machado, Bill Madlock, Paul Molitor, Graig Nettles, Terry Pendleton, Aramis Ramirez, Anthony Rendon, Scott Rolen, Mike Schmidt, Justin Turner, Robin Ventura, Matt Williams and David Wright.

MLB all-time lists: Cumulative career OPS+

This category, which is simply the sum of each third baseman’s OPS+ values, is different from the standard career OPS+, which is essentially the player’s career average. Cumulative career OPS+ is designed to reward longevity. It is essentially a counter-balance to the first, peak-performance oriented, category.

Here’s the expansion era top 10 for the position.

George Brett’s superior career total is based on nine seasons above 140, five of them coming in succession, over a 20-year career. Mike Schmidt only played 17 seasons, although they were good ones, including 13 above 140. That creates enough space for Chipper Jones, with nine such seasons over 18 years, to squeeze in between them and Paul Molitor, whose total precisely equaled Schmidt’s.

In company with his 10th place rank in peak OPS+, Adrian Beltre’s fifth-place standing thrusts him into serious contention overall. Beltre had seven seasons with an OPS+ below 100 But he played 21 years, and came on strong at the end of his career. During his final nine seasons, Beltre averaged a 129.11 OPS+.

This category works to the disadvantage of several players still in mid-career. That specifically includes Evan Longoria, Justin Turner and Josh Donaldson, all three of whom ranked among the top 10 for peak OPS+.

Other current players, Alex Bregman, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon and Manny Machado, who may eventually move up, for now form a pack at the bottom of this category.

MLB all-time lists: MVP shares

Peer and contemporary recognition is one important tool for measuring a player’s skill. This category is designed to factor that into the overall evaluation. For this combined offense-defense position during the expansion era, the best choice is MVP shares.

Each player’s MVP share is based on the percentage of available MVP votes he received during the course of his career.

Here’s the ranking of the 10 highest shares among the 30 players who were considered.

Since the start of the division era in 1969, 15 players whose primary position was third base won MVP awards. The positional peak came in 1980, when Mike Schmidt and George Brett both won, Schmidt’s award coming unanimously.

Beyond his 1980 and 1981 selections, Schmidt also won in 1986 and was third two other years. Beyond Brett’s 1980 selection, he was runner-up in 1976 and again in 1985, and third in 1979.

Again, the finishes of Adrian Beltre and Chipper Jones in this category are noteworthy. Jones won in 1999. Beltre never won an MVP, but he was second in 2004, third in 2012 and he received votes in eight different elections.

Wade Boggs is a big loser in this category. Third in peak OPS+ and sixth in cumulative career OPS+, he stands only 14th with 1.2 MVP shares.

MLB all-time lists: Defensive WAR

The defensive component at third base is a significant portion of a player’s overall value.

Today, the best category for rating third base play is probably Outs Above Average. But data for that calculation is not available for the pre-Statcast era, leaving Defensive WAR as the next best choice when considering the entire expansion  era.

It reflects the number of runs a player is projected to have saved his team due to his defensive play over the course of his career, then is converted to the number of wins those runs contributed to.

The balanced offensive-defensive nature of the third base position is reflected in the ratings of our 30 candidates. The average, +7.99, tilts toward the fielding side of the spectrum.

Here are the top 10 for third basemen since 1969.

Defensive WAR turns out to be a decisive category in distinguishing between the records of Mike Schmidt and George Brett. While Schmidt ranks a respectable fifth at 18.4 Defensive WAR, Brett – at just 2.2 dWAR, is only 22nd. He’s also well below the positional average among our 30 candidates; Schmidt is well above the group average.

That’s not an isolated difference:  Schmidt also beats Brett in fielding percentage (.955 to .951) and range (3.15 chances to 3.11) at third base. Those were the two dominant fielding measures of their peak period.

Adrian Beltre’s leadership is significant for his challenge to Schmidt’s category primacy. Scott Rolen is the category’s other big winner. Increasingly viewed as a potential Hall of Famer, Rolen’s 21.2 dWAR enhances the overall impression he makes.

MLB all-time lists: Baserunning runs

The position of third base requires a multiplicity of skills. Power and a high average are highly valued, but so is defensive range.

The disparate positional needs also encompass baserunning ability and that skill varies widely among the contenders. The expansion era category leader produced 78 baserunning runs during his career, an exceptional total for any position. But the positional average is a nearly neutral 2.66, and 11 of the 30 candidates produced negative value due to their baserunning.

With that as an understanding, here are the top 10 players based on the number of baserunning runs they generated over the course of their careers.

If Mike Schmidt’s dominance is questionable in any category, it is this one. His career baserunning score was minus-1, consigning him to 19th place on this list. That’s 17 places below his chief competitor for overall dominance, George Brett, and it offsets the advantage Schmidt accrued due to his fielding superiority.

But the category’s big winners are Paul Molitor and Scott Rolen, not surprisingly. Molitor – with 504 career steals and a success rate approaching 80 percent, is a runaway No. 1. Rolen’s 12 baserunning runs were accumulated during a 17-season career. In only six of those seasons did he produce a negative baserunning value.

Adrian Beltre and Chipper Jones, both of whom have rated highly in the previous categories, were among the six players tied for 10th in this category.

MLB all-time lists: The final tabulation

The expansion era tabulation below is based on the average ordinal placement of each of the 30 third basemen in all five categories. A score of 1.0, indicating a first place rank in all five categories, would be perfect. The list also shows the players’ standing on the Brian Kenny and Bob Costas lists.

Although their scores were identical, Mike Schmidt gets the slight nod as the expansion era No. 1 third baseman because he ranked higher than George Brett in three of the five categories. In ordinal terms, he beat Brett by one position in peak OPS+, by one in MVP shares and by 17 in Defensive WAR. Brett beat Schmidt by two positions in cumulative WAR and by 17 in baserunning.

Adrian Beltre is a surprisingly close third.  Surprising? Well, both Kenny and Costas ranked him sixth. With category finishes of 10th, fifth, fourth, first and 10th, he was the only third baseman to reach the top 10 in all five categories.

Given a handful more baserunning runs, he might have edged out both Schmidt and Brett to claim the positional top spot.

The other big surprise was Matt Williams’ finish in the seventh position. Overlooked by both  Kenny and Costas, neither of whom viewed him as top-10 material, Williams qualified due to his steadiness. Although top 10 in just two categories – he was seventh in MVP shares and tied for 10th in Baserunning Runs – he finished no lower than 13th in any of the categories.

Aside from Beltre, Williams was the only player who held an upper half standing in all of the category ranks.

Sal Bando and Josh Donaldson, at the bottom of this top 10, also escaped the attention of Kenny and Costas. Kenny opted instead for David Wright and Ron Cey. Wright ranked 12th overall in this list.

Cey – who Kenny portrayed as something of an emotional throw-in on his part, actually ranked only 25th among the 30. Among the era’s best, he was no better than average in three categories, and weak in both MVP shares and baserunning.

Costas preferred Bill Madlock and Graig Nettles, who Kenny also selected, to round out his list. With a weak peak OPS+ offset by strong defensive skills, Nettles rated a solidly mid-pack 15th on this list. Madlock’s sub-par defense cost him anything more than 17th.  Of Madlock, it was once famously said that he could be the first player to simultaneously bat .500 and field .500.