MLB all-time lists: The expansion era’s 10 best starting pitchers
By Bill Felber
Enough Hall of Fame starting pitchers have populated baseball’s expansion era to overflow even a modern staff. A total of 17 starters whose careers peaked since 1969 have already been elected, so coming up with another entry for MLB all-time lists from that era will be a tough job.
That doesn’t consider several active or recently retired pitchers who are on track to attain that same status.
Among that elite group of starters, who stands out as the best? Is it Pedro Martinez? How about Randy Johnson? Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Tom Seaver have to be considered. Or might Clayton Kershaw have already done enough to outshine all of them.
MLB Network personalities Brian Kenny and Bob Costas considered the question of the era’s best starters during the sixth installment of the network’s Top 10 Right Now Thursday. That episode included a segment rating post-1969 starters.
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As difficult as the challenge of picking one “best” starter may sound, Kenny and Costas did agree, at least at the top. Both selected Seaver, star of the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds, for that honor.
But does Seaver really deserve to be placed at the head of such a crowded class of greats? Making that determination is the focus of this essay.
Before assessing how accurate the Kenny and Costas lists were, here are their respective top 10s:
| Brian Kenny | Bob Costas |
|---|---|
| 1. Tom Seaver | 1. Tom Seaver |
| 2. Randy Johnson | 2. Pedro Martinez |
| 3. Pedro Martinez | 3. Roger Clemens |
| 4. Greg Maddux | 4. Randy Johnson |
| 5. Clayton Kershaw | 5. Greg Maddux |
| 6. Roger Clemens | 6. Steve Carlton |
| 7. Phil Niekro | 7. Jim Palmer |
| 8. Gaylord Perry | 8. Nolan Ryan |
| 9. Justin Verlander | 9. Tom Glavine |
| 10. Jim Palmer | 10. John Smoltz |
The demands placed on a starter have evolved considerably over the past half century. Most obviously, starters are asked to work less frequently. In 1970, Gaylord Perry started 40 games and pitched 329 innings. In the modern game, a starter is considered heavily used if he logs 33 starts and 180 innings.
Today’s starter is also asked to be more of a strikeout pitcher; a half century ago, starters were allowed to rely on their fielders.
Our five ratings criteria attempt to recognize and balance those changes. When all five categories are assessed, the player with the average ordinal score closest to a perfect rating of 1.0 is the winner.
The criteria are:
- Five-year peak performance with ERA+ as the yardstick
- Cumulative ERA+ over the course of their careers
- Career Cy Young shares
- Strikeouts, with an era-based adjustment
- Innings pitched, also with an era-based adjustment.
Alphabetically, the 30 nominees are: Bert Blyleven. Kevin Brown, Steve Carlton, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Dwight Gooden, Zack Greinke, Ron Guidry, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Orel Hershiser, Ferguson Jenkins, Randy Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Jack Morris, Mike Mussina, Phil Niekro, Jim Palmer, Gaylord Perry, David Price, Nolan Ryan, Johan Santana, Max Scherzer, Curt Schilling, Tom Seaver, John Smoltz, Don Sutton, Justin Verlander.