MLB: The best since 1969 in right field – Surprise, it’s Larry Walker
Perhaps at no position is the debate over best player of the MLB expansion era as wide open as it is in right field.
Unlike at some other positions – Barry Bonds in left field, Joe Morgan at second, Mariano Rivera in the pen — there is no obvious king. Tony Gwynn hit for average, but not power. Sammy Sosa has all those PED questions clouding his legitimacy. Dave Winfield and Gary Sheffield were indifferent defenders. Ichiro Suzuki is over-rated. And what of Hall of Famers Larry Walker, Andre Dawson, Vlad Guerrero, and Reggie Jackson?
MLB Network personalities Brian Kenny and Bob Costas wrestled with the question of who among that group ought to be proclaimed the best during the latest installment of the network’s ‘Top 10 Right Now’ Wednesday. That episode included a segment rating post-1969 right-fielders.
There’s one other question about right field. Do you even consider Hank Aaron, who played only 30 percent of his career in the divisional era?
Bob Costas did, and rated Aaron No. 1. Brian Kenny did not. Although he had some great seasons late in his career, Aaron’s offensive peak occurred in the early 1960s. For that reason, this ranking agrees with Kenny’s approach and does not assess Aaron. If you choose to include Aaron, he almost certainly rises to the top.
Before measuring how accurate the Kenny and Costas lists were, here are their respective top 10s:
Kenny Costas
1 Reggie Jackson Hank Aaron
2 Tony Gwynn Tony Gwynn
3 Dwight Evans Reggie Jackson
4 Dave Winfield Ichiro Suzuki
5 Andre Dawson Larry Walker
6 Vlad Guerrero Vlad Guerrero
7 Gary Sheffield Dave Winfield
8 Larry Walker Andre Dawson
9 Ichiro Suzuki Mookie Betts
10 Dave Parker Sammy Sosa
As we pursue this categorical analysis, you’re going to see greater differences of viewpoint for right field than perhaps any other position.
Right field is an inherently offensive position, but it demands one unique defensive talent: a strong throwing arm. Our five ratings criteria reflect those varying demands, and they include one category – assists – designed to evaluate the ability to throw the ball. When all five categories are assessed, the player with the average ordinal score closest to a perfect rating of 1.0 is the winner.
The criteria are: 1. Five-season peak performance with OPS+ as the yardstick; 2. Cumulative OPS+ over the course of their careers; 3. Career MVP shares; 4. Career Defensive Wins Above Replacement; 5. Assists per 162 games; 6. Baserunning runs.
Alphabetically, the 30 nominees are: Bobby Abreu, Harold Baines, Jose Bautista, Mookie Betts, Bobby Bonds, Jose Canseco, Andre Dawson, Dwight Evans, Kirk Gibson, Carlos Gonzalez, Juan Gonzalez, Vlad Guerrero, Tony Gwynn, Josh Hamilton, Bryce Harper, Reggie Jackson, Dave Justice, Paul O’Neill, Magglio Ordonez, Dave Parker, Hunter Pence, Tim Salmon, Gary Sheffield, Ken Singleton, Sammy Sosa, Giancarlo Stanton, Darryl Strawberry, Ichiro Suzuki, Larry Walker, and Dave Winfield.
Five-season peak performance
This criteria is simply the player’s best five-season average OPS+.
Here are the 10 best peak averages among the 30 MLB candidates.
Rank Right Field Seasons Average
1 Sammy Sosa 1998-2002 167.0
2 Gary Sheffield 1994-1998 160.0
3 Jose Bautista 2010-2014 155.6
4 Vlad Guerrero 2000-2004 154.8
5 Larry Walker 1997-2001 154.0
5 Reggie Jackson 1969-1973 154.0
7 Jose Canseco 1988-1992 152.2
8 Darryl Strawberry 1984-1988 151.4
8 Ken Singleton 1975-1979 151.4
10 Giancarlo Stanton 2011-2015 150.0
Sosa’s top position in this category may be questioned for its influence by PEDs. Both Kenny and Costas did that in dropping him overall to 10th (Costas) or off the list altogether (Kenny). As has been stated in prior parts of this series, the number themselves are objective; feel free to impose any subjective penalties on Sosa or others at your discretion.
Sheffield’s No. 2 ranking thrusts him into overall contention. Jackson’s tying with Walker for fifth makes him a contender, although it may undermine his chances of finishing No. 1, where Kenny put him. After all, the strength of Jackson’s game was his offense.
If there are surprises, they may be Winfield, Gwynn and Suzuki. None make the top 10, and Suzuki – at a peak OPS+ of 120.2 – is far from it. That number alone suggests that Suzuki’s reputation, notwithstanding his hit total, is overrated.
Winfield finished 12th, one spot ahead of Gwynn.
Cumulative career OPS+
This category, which is simply the sum of each right fielder’s OPS+ values, is different from the standard career OPS+, which is essentially the player’s career average. Cumulative career OPS+ is designed to reward longevity. It is a counter-balance to the first, peak-performance oriented, category.
Here’s the top 10.
Rank Right Field Cumulative OPS+
1 Gary Sheffield 2,846
2 Reggie Jackson 2,816
3 Dave Winfield 2,757
4 Harold Baines 2,544
5 Dwight Evans 2,497
6 Andre Dawson 2,403
7 Dave Parker 2,258
8 Larry Walker 2,224
9 Sammy Sosa 2,186
10 Bobby Abreu 2,104
With his second and first place rank in the two major hitting categories, Sheffield plainly is the best hitter among MLB expansion era right fielders. Jackson is a strong second, and Winfield a strong third.
The surprises on this list are Baines, Evans, and Abreu. Again, Suzuki comes up as over-rated. His career total of 1,790 cumulative OPS+ points only ranks 15th – barely upper half – among our 30 contestants.
Gwynn also comes up surprisingly weak in this category. At 1,596, he stands just 21st. Not surprisingly, the contemporary players – notably Betts – are harmed by the fact that they are still in mid-career. The fact that Betts is still only 28 illustrates that he has many years to move up the career list.
MVP shares
Peer and contemporary recognition is one important tool for measuring a player’s skill. This category is designed to factor that into the overall evaluation. For this largely offense-oriented position, the best choice is MVP Shares.
Each player’s MVP share is based on the percentage of available MVP votes he received during the course of his career.
Here’s the ranking of the 10 highest shares among the 30 players who were considered.
Rank Right field Shares
1 Reggie Jackson 3.28
2 Dave Parker 3.19
3 Vlad Guerrero 2.94
4 Mookie Betts 2.79
5 Juan Gonzalez 2.76
6 Gary Sheffield 2.48
7 Sammy Sosa 2.46
8 Andre Dawson 2.36
9 Dave Winfield 2.20
10 Tony Gwynn 1.93
This is Jackson’s best category. He only won one MVP Award, that in 1973, but had four other top five finishes.
Right field has been an MVP generator. Since 1969, 16 right fielders have been voted MVP, one of whom – Jeff Burroughs in 1974 – does not even rate inclusion among the 30 candidates.
Gonzalez, with wins in 1996 and 1998, is the only two-time winner. Yet he still ranks just fifth in the category, Parker, Guerrero, and Betts each having one win plus multiple other top five placements.
This category, too, works against Suzuki, who ranks only 18th with 1.38 MVP shares. Three categories through the overall rating, it’s already obvious that the Costas and Kenny selections of Suzuki inside the top 10 will not be supported by the numbers.
Assists per 162 games
The right field position requires a fielder to cut down aggressive baserunners. That makes his assist total a vital measuring tool of positional excellence.
The tool in use here is assists per 162-games as opposed to peak or career assist totals. Using that approach provides a balance between players who piled up high assist totals over more lengthy careers compared with those who were better for shorter periods. It also allows us to assess players based purely on their play in right field.
With that as an understanding, here are the top 10 MLB right fielders based on their 162-game career assist averages at the position.
Rank Right Field Per-162 gms.
1 Larry Walker 14.14
2 Jose Bautista 13.31
3 Juan Gonzalez 13.02
4 Tim Salmon 12.83
4 Vlad Guerrero 12.72
5 Dave Parker 12.29
6 Dwight Evans 12.00
7 Bobby Bonds 11.87
8 Tony Gwynn 11.18
9 Bobby Abreu 11.07
It’s time to take Larry Walker seriously. His No. 1 rank in this category gives him top 12 finishes in all four categories to date. Bautista and Gonzalez probably merit stronger overall consideration.
Guerrero’s credentials are as impressive as Walker’s. He, too, has no placement worse than 12th in any of the four categories thus far.
Again Suzuki, with just 8.22 outfield assists per 162 games at the position, comes up small. He ranks only 27th in the category. Betts, Sheffield, and Dawson are also hurt by modest assist totals.
Baserunning runs
The running game is only occasionally in demand among right fielders, who are also prized for their power. Nevertheless, several members of this group featured the ability to take advantage of base advancement opportunities.
Here’s the category top 10
Rank Right field Runs
1 Ichiro Suzuki 62
2 Larry Walker 40
3 Dave Winfield 38
4 Mookie Betts 37
5 Kirk Gibson 30
6 Tony Gwynn 23
7 Carlos Gonzalez 17
8 Bobby Abreu 16
9 Andre Dawson 14
9 Hunter Pence 14
His 62 baserunning runs gives Suzuki the consolation prize in this category. Among the overall contenders, Walker, Winfield and Gwynn stand out.
Jackson, the pick of Kenny as the era’s best right fielder, was no baserunner. He ranks only 26th among the 30 with -10 baserunning runs. Sosa and Guerrero are also downgraded for ordinary to subpar performance.
Walker’s baserunning may be overlooked by some historians, but it gives him yet another high category placing. Betts well represents the current players with 37 baserunning runs, good presently for fourth place. His next baserunning run will tie him with Winfield, and it’s not at all out of the question that he soon moves into the category’s No. 2 spot behind Suzuki.
The final tabulation
The tabulation below is based on the average ordinal placement of each of the 30 MLB right fielders in all five categories. A score of 1.0, indicating a first place rank in all six categories, would be perfect. The list also shows the right fielder’s standing on the Kenny and Costas lists.
Rank Right Field Ordinal Avg Kenny Costas
1 Larry Walker 5.60 8 5
2 Dave Winfield 7.80 4 7
3 Vlad Guerrero 9.20 6 6
4 Gary Sheffield 9.40 7 NR
5 Reggie Jackson 9.60 1 3
6 Juan Gonzalez 11.40 NR NR
7 Dave Parker 12.00 10 NR
8 Tony Gwynn 12.60 2 2
9 Sammy Sosa 13.20 NR 10
10 Andre Dawson 13.40 5 8
In none of the MLB expansion era position analyses have we seen such a divergence of opinion. With top 12 finishes in all five categories, three top fives among them, Walker turns out to be a fairly strong No. 1 pick. Yet Kenny rates him only the era’s eighth best right fielder and Costas only has him fifth.
This system’s top three are Walker, Winfield and Guerrero. None are top three on either the Kenny or Costas lists. Sheffield rates fourth by these metrics but only seventh for Kenny. Costas does not rank him at all, possibly omitting him due to PED suspicions.
At the other end of the spectrum, Gwynn is rated second by both Kenny and Costas. Yet his relatively unremarkable showings in both peak and cumulative OPS+ consign him to eighth place in this ranking. Similarly, Kenny rates Jackson No. 1, but his ordinary assist total and poor baserunning drag him down to fifth on this list.
As for Suzuki, although Kenny put him ninth and Costas fourth, he ranks only 22nd among these 30 candidates…and it would be worse but for his baserunning superiority.
Costas’s inclusion of Aaron at No. 1 is a judgment whose propriety for an expansion era list can be debated. Costas also rated Betts ninth, a position he hasn’t quite justified yet based on his career numbers to date.
Next. When 60 homers was not enough. dark
Kenny rated Evans third, a position that is not as overblown as it may sound. Overall, Evans just missed the top 10, finishing 11th.