Are the New York Mets going to ‘miss’ Trevor Bauer?

Before it was announced that the reign NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer was signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers for three years and $110 million, Rachel Luba, Bauer’s agent, reported that there were only two teams left in the mix: the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets. The Mets, who have been aggressive this winter, offered a very similar contract to the one presented by LA.

In the end, the right-handed pitcher from California picked the current world champions. Despite not signing Bauer, New York still has one of the best rotations in baseball, which makes you wonder if they are better off without him.

How much will the New York Mets miss Trevor Bauer?

There is no denying that Bauer is an impact player. Since 2018, he has an ERA+ of 144, better than Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg. Last season, he posted a league leading1.73 ERA and an incredible WHIP of just 0.795.

Not only he has an impact on the field, but he has a personality that attracts crowds and drama, he has a big clubhouse presence, and, most of all, he plays loud. He can easily be the face of any franchise. Nevertheless, when you dive into his stats some numbers make you wonder about the high salary and generate some doubts about his future performance. During his nine seasons as a major leaguer, he has only posted an ERA under 4.00 two seasons (2018 and 2020) and the back and ankle injury that caused a regression in 2019 might also be in play for the future.

The Mets have added already this offseason two good pitchers to their rotation: Carlos Carrasco and Joey Luchessi. Carrasco, who came to New York in the Lindor trade, is one of the only five pitchers, since 2016, who have recorded an ERA+ of at least 125 and a strikeout ratio of at least 10.0. The other four; Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and his new teammate, Jacob deGrom.

On the other hand, Joey Luchesi, who arrived in a three-team trade with the Padres and the Pirates, will replace the role performed in the past few seasons by Steven Matz as the lefty of the rotation. Luchessi, who is 27 and has played just three seasons on the majors, has an amazing changeup and decent fastball and bring a much needed cheap and team controllable contract for the next few years.

The first two spots of the rotation are already practically settled with deGrom and Stroman. deGrom has been, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball during the last few seasons, and his great 2020 season showed that he has a lot left on the tank. On the other hand, Stroman opted out of the 2020 season, but exhibited great performances in his few games as a Met in 2019 and has never posted a FIP over 4.00 in his major league career.

The other spot of the rotation will surely go to Noah Syndergaard, who when healthy, is one of the best power pitchers of the game. Although he is coming back from Tommy John surgery, he is already throwing bullpen sessions. Nevertheless, the Mets front office, said that a realistic date for his major league return would be after Memorial Day.

Considering those statements, the missing spot should go to David Peterson. The rookie had a decent first season in 2020 posting a 3.44 ERA and showed potential at the highest level. Peterson would benefit a lot by sharing the rotation with the veterans and his development can help the team financially during the next few seasons.

The Mets never really needed Trevor Bauer. Adding Carrasco and Luchessi made the rotation stronger, which caused them to need Bauer even less. If Bauer signed with the Mets and decided not to exercise any of his opt-outs, his high contract would be a problem and would prevent them from signing and strengthen other positions.

The Mets right now need another outfielder, preferably a right fielder. Comforto and Nimmo should start in center and left, but the versatile JD Davis and the new addition José Martínez might not be enough. Jackie Bradley Jr. has been on their radar and the former Red Sox outfielder might be the real missing piece the team needs to win the toughest division in baseball.

Bauer’s rejection also leaves a much-needed open door for the future trade line. Facing the toughest division in baseball, the Mets might realize into the season what spot they need to bolster due to an injury or a bad performance by a player, to beat the two time division champs Braves, the 2019 world series winner Nationals, the newly improved Phillies and the 2020 playoff Marlins.

Trevor Bauer is going to the best team in baseball, but New York Mets fans should not be disappointed by this. Steve Cohen and the front office did a huge effort this offseason to improve the team and have built an amazing rotation, with an above-average offense led by Francisco Lindor. The door closes on Bauer but it opens up in acquiring an outfielder, leaving room for the trade deadline, and future extensions.