Miami Marlins Make That Minor Splash With Adam Duvall Deal

The Miami Marlins made their boldest move of the 2021 offseason with the signing of free agent slugger Adam Duvall.

Last season, Adam Duvall took the Miami Marlins to school, hitting .313 with 5 HRs against them as a member of the division rival Atlanta Braves.

This season, the Marlins hope they can use Duvall to return the favor against his former club.

That’s right, as of Monday afternoon, Duvall is bringing his talents to Little Havana, thanks to a one year, $2 million deal. The move brings a potential impact bat to Miami’s lineup, shoring up an offense badly in need of some added pop. Without question, it’s Miami’s boldest move of the offense thus far.

There’s an option for a second year tacked on to the deal as well, a $7 million option with a $3 million buyout. Basically, unless Duvall leads the majors in homers in 2021, it’s going to be a $5 million investment on the Marlins part in a low risk, high reward move. That’s exactly the kind of move this rebuilding/contending club needed to make to build on last year’s success, rewarding fans and players alike.

Inarguably, adding Adam Duvall does not carry the same weight as adding Marcell Ozuna, Francisco Lindor, or J.T. Realmuto– the marquis offseason signings of the rest of the NL East. Fortunately, Duvall doesn’t remotely need to be those players to make a big difference in Miami’s lineup.

If you project Adam Duvall’s 2020 pace for a full 162-game season, he would have hit forty-three home runs.

Not a single member of the 2020 Miami Marlins was on pace for thirty. Only two, Brian Anderson and Jesus Aguilar, had paces in the twenties.

Okay, I’m admittedly being a little unfair to Anderson’s 29.7 pace. That doesn’t change the fact Miami’s power output was outright anemic by today’s offensive standards. And simply banking on Jazz Chisholm and Isan Diaz becoming Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla was not nearly enough of an offensive upgrade on the front office’s part.

Certainly, Duvall’s 2020 was more likely fluke than trend. A flame out is possible.  Yet if he does crash and burn, so what? Miami has a veteran bench bat, and young talents like JJ Bleday and Monte Harrison to take his place. Indeed, the front office would in many respects be thrilled if that is how things play out. If returning to the postseason is the primary goal of the 2021 season, Bleday and Harrison proving they’re good enough to push Duvall to the bench is undoubtedly the second.

Even Duvall only hitting on his current Baseball Prospectus projection of 25 HRs would makes the move worth it for Miami. On the other hand, reproducing that 2020 HR pace wouldn’t just be worth it- it would be the steal of the offseason.

Nice work, Marlins.