The Chicago Cubs filled a need while engaging in some fan service Friday evening, bringing Jake Arrieta back to the North Side on a one-year deal.
It has been another quiet offseason for Chicago Cubs fans looking to improve their roster.
Friday night’s news might not go on to move that needle too much, but it will at least bring back some fond memories: Jake Arrieta is returning to the North Side.
Back on a one-year, $6 million deal, Arrieta should slide easily back into the starting rotation given the embarrassing paucity of options Chicago has considering they were the No. 3 seed in the NL postseason field in 2020. Trading Yu Darvish will do that to a rotation- it was only the “hold my beer” offseason of AL champion Tampa and their decision to move on from Blake Snell and Charlie Morton that has kept the Cubs from leading the league in negative scrutiny since trading the Cy Young runner up.
In any case, a solid spring and the benefit of the doubt from former battery-mate turned skipper David Ross likely propels him to the No. 3 role for Chicago behind Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies. So what can Chicago expect from Arrieta, three years later?
On the one hand, Arrieta is a serviceable enough veteran that obviously has plenty of familiarity pitching at the Friendly Confines. He won the Cy Young with the Cubs in 2015, and earned a Silver Slugger award during the championship run the following season. Consider him unfazed by the absence of an NL DH this season at any rate. If any organization is going to squeeze whatever productive baseball is left out of Arrieta, it stands to reason it would be the Cubs, the franchise that fixed him in the first place after (like so many others) his escape from Baltimore.
But on the other, there is a reason Arrieta was still available less than a week before pitchers and catchers report. Several actually. Virtually every counting stat of his worth tracking has declined since that 2015 Cy Young effort. From 2016 to 2018, he pulled off the neat trick of winning four less games than he did the previous year for three consecutive seasons; the wins have still dropped every season since. Strikeouts? Down for five seasons straight. Innings pitched? Down for five again. WHIP and ERA? Might as well be Gamestop stock.
No, the biggest advantages for Chicago in this move are familiarity and marketability.
Even if the Cubs can’t squeeze 180 quality innings out of him, plenty of nostalgic fans have a reason to turn out or tune in every fifth day now that they didn’t have when they woke up Friday morning. Fans that didn’t have prayer of seeing Arrieta in action without taking out a small mortgage from 2015 to 2017 should have an easier time doing so in 2021.
From a baseball only standpoint, the Cubs would be better off running whichever prospect finishes sixth in the starting rotation race out there than the 2021 version of Arrieta. When you factor in those aforementioned nostalgic ticket sales though, the move is probably a minor win for Chicago.
Welcome back, Jake.