Chicago Cubs hope Jake Arrieta has something left

Jake Arrieta was a revelation during his first stint with the Chicago Cubs. Acquired from the Orioles for Steve Clevenger and Scott Feldman, Arrieta almost immediately became a top of the rotation arm. He went on to win the 2015 NL Cy Young award and was an All Star the following year, a solid return for a pitcher who had been viewed as a disappointment in Baltimore.

But those days seem to be far behind Arrieta. He had signed a three year deal worth $75 million with the Phillies, only to struggle as time went on. Arrieta posted a 5.08 ERA and a 1.511 WHiP in his 44.1 innings in 2020, with his 6.5 K/9 rate his lowest since his rookie campaign in 2010.

Chicago Cubs hope Jake Arrieta has something left

The Cubs are hoping that lightning can strike twice. They signed Arrieta to a one year deal worth $6 million, seeking to fill out a rotation that had been thinned out by the loss of Jon Lester and by trading Yu Darvish.

On the positive side, Arrieta’s velocity is right where it had been. He averaged 92.39 MPH on his sinker last year, right around where his velocity had been over the past four years. However, opponents had a .391 batting average against his sinker, the worst mark of his career.

Advanced metrics do not paint a much better picture. As rough as his 2020 season had been, it could have been worse, as he posted a 5.69 expected ERA. Arrieta ranked in the sixth percentile in whiff percentage, and was in the 13th percentile with a 16.7% strikeout rate.

As Arrieta’s ERA has climbed each season since his dominant 2015 campaign, his strikeout rates have decreased. At the same time, he has been getting hit harder with each passing year, his 88.9 MPH exit velocity ranking in the 34th percentile. Arrieta just does not seem to have much left to offer.

Nonetheless, the Cubs need arms. They are familiar with Arrieta from his time with the organization before, and are hoping that he can once again be an asset for the organization. However, based on the way his performance and metrics have trended, he may not have much left to offer.

The Chicago Cubs feel that Jake Arrieta still has something left to offer. Right now, the evidence would seem to indicate otherwise.