Miami Marlins 2021 Position Preview: Middle Infield Mash-Up
Two middle infielders will start for the Miami Marlins on Opening Day 2021, but how long those players keep the job is anyone’s guess.
For a team projected to finish dead last in their division, there’s actually not a lot of uncertainty when it comes to the Miami Marlins roster.
With the one massive exception of whatever is going on at middle infield.
Our second 2021 Miami Marlins position preview is a total mash-up of players, running the gamut from proven veteran to promising prospect. It is also, as you can see, a combination of two positions: second base and shortstop. Now, this is not about taking a fantasy baseball approach view of the position- where you’re either a corner, middle, or outfielder.
No, this is about the fact that Miami’s middle infield is extremely interchangeable.
Three of the four players we’re going to review today enjoy multi-position eligibility. Three of these four players made multiple appearances at both second and short for the Miami Marlins as recently as the 2020 MLB season. Yet only one of these players is regarded as a lock for getting the nod on Opening Day, and only of these players is widely regarded as having the potential to be an above average MLB player. And just to be clear, those last two are not the same player.
Nor are any of these players the big money, second base eligible free agent Miami signed last offseason, only to ship off before the trade deadline due to dramatically underperforming and never getting on the same page with NL Manager of the Year Don Mattingly. Thanks for nothing, Jonathan Villar.
Bottom-line, there’s a lot for the Miami Marlins to figure out in between the corners in 2021, with only the success of the season riding on the answers. Two positions needing to be filled, with four candidates: Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm, Isan Diaz, and Miguel Rojas. We’ll take them in turn and see what sense can be made of this jumble.
Jon Berti, Miami Marlins Pos: 2B/SS/OF 2020 Stats: .258, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 9 SB
Projected Starter: No Fantasy Value: 5 OF Leagues/Roto Chance To Make Team: 100%
If Jon Berti is starting for the Miami Marlins come Opening Day, it probably means something didn’t go according to plan this spring.
Berti’s value, for both the Marlins and deep fantasy baseball rotisserie leagues, is as a super utility option. Berti made multiple starts at five different positions in 2020: 2B, CF, RF, 3B, and SS. Those outfield appearances should be fewer and farther between in 2021, however, given Miami’s recent signing of Adam Duvall and the need of keeping Garrett Cooper‘s bat in the lineup. Having a player that flexible is huge though, especially if the NL does indeed go back to playing without a DH.
Berti did take a big step back in batting average last season, hitting .258 after recording a career high of .273 the year before. However, he did just post a career high .388 OBP, good for second on the team among qualifiers. Perhaps more impressive, or at least more exciting, is the fact that Berti maintained his exact stolen base pace (.23 per game) from 2019 in 2020: if he ever plays 162 games for whatever reason, he is stealing over 40 bases.
So why not start him then? It’s all about potential. With less than 400 MLB at bats to his name, it’s easy to forget that he’s been a professional baseball player since 2011. At 31 years old, the drop off is coming, and his best skills (athleticism and speed) do not age well. Despite being as controllable as anyone on the roster, Miami needs to see what they have in the rest of their options, as all of them project much higher ceilings.
Berti should start Opening Day, but Miami will do everything possible to make sure that honor goes to another name on this list.
Berti Best Case: Wins starting job, hits .265 with 10 HRs and 40 steals
Berti Worst Case: Age wins, .250 or worse with 10 SBs, but he does it as a starter because the competition disappoints.
Jazz Chisholm, Miami Marlins Pos: SS/2B 2020 Stats: .161, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB
Projected Starter: ¯_(ツ)_/¯ Fantasy Value: Dynasty Only Chance To Make Team: 25%.
Let me tell you the story of a highly regarded, MLB Top 100, Miami Marlins prospect at shortstop.
This prospect had all manner of rave reviews from scouts. An impressive minor league stat line heading into their MLB debut season. Only to put up a putrid performance at the plate, batting below the Mendoza line, with an .OBP below .250 to boot.
That Miami Marlins prospect’s name? Alex Gonzalez.
Yep, the stat lines are almost identical, in an almost equal sample size (25 games for Gonzo, 21 for Jazz) for the two Marlins shortstops in their debut seasons. On the upside, Chisholm was actually marginally better- an extra ten points of average, along with one extra dinger and those two steals. On the downside, Gonzalez was never what you would call a force at the plate, retiring as .245 hitter with only one above .270 season to his credit.
Of course, the Marlins would probably have to be thrilled if Chisholm developed into that kind of reliable defender at the keystone position. However, Chisholm is a 5-tool, offensive leaning prospect. Miami will settle for Chisholm becoming Gold Glove caliber, but they traded Zac Gallen for him in the belief his career will be Hanley Ramirez light, not Alex Gonzalez plus.
The Marlins would be far better served keeping Chisholm in the minors for a full season, with that 2020 call-up being more about desperation than anything else. Last season proved both his potential, and a need for as many at bats as possible. That doesn’t mean he can’t win the job in camp, but he’s going to need to win it by a mile. Miami won’t burn service time on him to be a bench piece, at least not before June.
For those of you that are Chisholm truthers, Gonzalez’s best season was his second. For the rest of you, be prepared to see him this summer.
Chisholm Best Case: .270, flirts with a 20/20 season as a starter….somewhere on diamond
Chisholm Worst Case: Doesn’t get a call-up, and regresses at AAA. Hitting below .270 with minimal pop would have to raise flags for Miami going forward in the rebuild.
Isan Diaz, Miami Marlins Pos: 2B 2020 Stats: .182, 1 RBI
Projected Starter: Yes Fantasy Value: None Chance To Make Team: 100%
No, that above picture does not contain Miami Marlins second baseman Isan Diaz.
It’s just a picture of who every Miami Marlins fan thinks of whenever Diaz, Lewis Brinson, or Monte Harrison do anything that isn’t league MVP worthy.
Of course, that’s not really fair to a 24-year old with less than 250 professional at bats. Which is going to make it seem downright cruel to make a point of laying out his 2020 timeline, and reach any conclusions about his future based on a seven game season. Unfortunately, that doesn’t change the fact Diaz’s 2020 can be nutshelled thusly:
Miami signs 2B Jonathan Villar…as a CF because Diaz is the future at second base. The future then opts out of the 2020 season (Zero judgement there). Villar plays a lot more infield as a result of that decision, not to mention Diaz’s Covid concerns being completely vindicated by what befell the Marlins, and performs terribly. Yet, despite their biggest 2020 free agent signing being terrible, Miami competes for the playoffs anyway. At which point the future opts back in for the 2020 season. Which frees Miami up to trade Villar, and not add another 2B at the deadline because the future was coming back.
The future proceeded to be even more terrible for seven games, and then got hurt, missing the rest of the season.
Again, hard to take a fair read there. But as strong as Miami’s farm system currently is ranked, and as great as that 2020 playoff run was, you get the sense the Marlins really need someone that came back in the Yelich deal to be good…and that they really want it to be Diaz.
Really, there is nowhere to go but up for Diaz, considering his track record since being promoted to the majors. He’s below Mendoza for his career so far, and that career is twice as long as Chisholm’s now. Still a small sample size, but it’s not immediately dismissible either, particularly since that 2019 power surge at AAA hasn’t shown enough signs yet of transferring to the majors. No one besides the Marlins is currently talking Diaz up as a cause for hope in 2021, but hopes Miami has nonetheless.
If Diaz can transfer that power, it could be enough to push Miami into contention. If not…if not, we can end any remaining analysis of that trade with Milwaukee.
Diaz Best Case: Dan Uggla‘s 2006 feels like the ceiling. Seeing Diaz hit for 26 HRs with a .282 average would be a dream come true for the Marlins, and his minor league numbers completely support it.
Diaz Worst Case: Unfortunately, the MLB numbers suggest 2011 Chris Coghlan would be an improvement. Let’s say a .230 average and 10 HRs is the floor here- Miami will give him half a season before turning the job over to Berti or Chisholm. Oh, If only Miami pushed for Keston Hiura in that trade…
Miguel Rojas, Miami Marlins Pos: Infield 2020 Stats: .304, 4 HRs, 20 RBI, 5 SB
Projected Starter: Yes Fantasy Value: Deep Roto/Points Chance To Make Team: 100%
The following two statements are completely true about Miami Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas:
A.) I want him to retire in a Miami Marlins uniform.
B.) Barring injuries, the team has a problem if he’s still starting for them in 2022.
Certainly they do if he’s still starting at short. Rojas is currently the unquestioned leader of the Miami Marlins. That doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty to question about his viability as a long term starter though.
Far and away, 2020 was the best season of his career. Projected over a full 162 games, he would have hit 16 HRs and stolen 20 bases to go along with that .304 average and insane for him .392 OBP. Pick a measure- career bests in every category, be it counting stat or the most advanced sabermetric. It’s more than fair to wonder if Rojas, who will be 32 on Opening Day, can come close to repeating those rates. I mean, he’d be a justifiable pick in the second round of a deep fantasy draft with that stat line. Do you think that’s what Rojas is?
Fortunately for the Marlins, repeating isn’t a necessity for Rojas being well worth starting in 2021. As long as he doesn’t fall of a cliff, any negative regression on his part will be more than counteracted by positive regression from Corey Dickerson and Brian Anderson. He’s good. Not great, but good. He’ll be good again this season- Baseball Prospectus should look very foolish on that .263 average they’re currently predicting.
The problem with Rojas as a fixture beyond 2021 is that it would likely mean significant failure on the part of a key component of this Miami marlins rebuild: Chisholm. He’s listed by MLB.com as SS/2B eligible, but that’s a very recent designation, entirely reflective of his three weeks worth of games as a Marlin. His minor league career? In 336 games….one was at second base.
Keith Law of the Athletic, and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, have him as much more highly ranked, and they don’t bother listing anything other than shortstop for Jazz. Both also have him listed as the best position player prospect in the Miami Marlins organization, and the one closest to the big leagues. Now, if you’re of the same mind as I am that Miguel Rojas is not the actually equal of Tim Anderson or Starling Marte, then you need to ask yourself:
What does it say about Chisholm if he can’t beat out Miguel Rojas?
And honestly, based on how Miami still seems to view him, what does it say about Diaz if he can’t do it either?
Moving Chisholm to 2B last season was all about necessity, completely justified given the circumstances. Big picture though, Rojas needs to be the one to move. He has significant MLB experience at every infield position save catcher, and has played at at least three spots every season of his career.
Honestly, it would surprise me if Diaz proves to better than Miguel Rojas at any point between now and say…2026. But it would disappoint me if Chisholm can’t make a strong case in 2022.
Rojas Best Case: Bats .282 with 15 HRs and 15 SBs. I’m not fully buying 2020, but I am completely buying the hitter he’s averaged out to be since being treated as an MLB starter. There’s something to be said for knowing you have a job.
Rojas Worst Case: By no means brittle, outside of 2018, there has always seemed to be something on the injury front. At 32, I worry he’s due to miss some significant time. His BABIP was a career high .330 in 2020. Regressing him all the way to that .300 league mean would make Rojas a .274 hitter in 2021. I can see that happening if injuries throw him off his rhythm.
Next. MLB Needs A Salary Floor. dark
Really though, the true worst case for Rojas is the best case for the Miami Marlins: Chisholm and Diaz fully realizing their potential this season.
Should that happen, expect a lot of those win-loss predictions for Miami to look really stupid come September. Just like last year.