San Diego Padres: Reasonable expectations for Fernando Tatis Jr.
So Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres have come to terms on a 14-year, $340 million deal. What are the expectations?
Specifically, what are the reasonable expectations with respect to production from Tatis among Padres fans?
Trying to find reasonable expectations for Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres
We can probably guess what the actual expectations are? Tatis is basically being paid on a level not all that far from Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, both of whom not long ago signed their own mega-deals. In Trout’s case, it was for 12-year, $426 million. Betts signed through 2032 for just short of $400 million.
More Padres. A risky commitment for Tatis. light
The average annual value of Tatis’ deal is $28.7 million, competitive with the Betts and Trout deals given their experience advantages and longer performance history.
The extension is noteworthy since Tatis has only played 143 big league games to date.
His inexperience, however, will not dampen expectations among Padres fans, who will – in exchange for all that cash – be looking for production. They will gauge that in terms of awards — does Tatis become the game’s best player? Does he win MVPs? But they’ll also gauge it in post-season success? Does Tatis do for the Padres what Betts did for the Dodgers and Trout was supposed to do for the Angels, take his team to one (or more) World Series victories?
Those are the real expectations. But what are the realistic expectations? What does the data suggest Tatis may actually be able to produce for the Padres over the length of his 14-season deal?
To answer that question requires a comparison based on actual data. To produce realistic career expectations for Tatis, we’ve set up a table measuring the production of 15 players who met a specific set of requirements that make them reasonably comparable to him.
These are the requirements:
1. They were established big league stars by age 22.
2. They started out at a middle infield position.
3. Either their careers have concluded or, if they remain active, they are older than 35.
4. They were active at some point during the last 30 seasons.
It is, as you might guess, a distinguished field of comparables. Five have been elected to the Hall of Fame, and one or two others may yet. The list is studded with Rookies of the Year and MVPs. Yet there are also one or two relative disappointments.
The central question we asked of each of the 15 was this: Measured by Wins Above Replacement, how valuable were they during each season of their age 22 through 35 careers, and what was their total value for the fullness of that 14-season block? What, in other words, were reasonable expectations?
In alphabetical order, the 15 comparables are Roberto Alomar, Robinson Cano, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, Chuck Knoblauch, Barry Larkin, Paul Molitor, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Jimmy Rollins, Garry Templeton, Troy Tulowitzki, and Robin Yount.
Padres fans would probably be satisfied to come away with the composite of that player.
As a group, those 15 averaged 55.41 WAR between their age 22 and 35 seasons. How good is that? Well, it got Alomar, Jeter, Larkin, Molitor, and Yount Hall of Fame passes. Rodriguez might yet make it, and if he fails it will be for reasons not having to directly do with his production.
As a group, these 15 were pleasingly steady performers. The chart below shows the average WAR of the 15 for each season between their age 22 and age 35 years, the seasons encompassed by the new Tatis deal. The chart also shows the top and bottom performer among the 15 during each age season:
Age WAR Best Worst
Age 22 3.43 Rodriguez 8.5 Pedroia -0.8
Age 23 3.57 Garciaparra 6.6 Furcal 0.2
Age 24 5.82 Rodriguez 10.4 Molitor 1.0
Age 25 5.33 Rodriguez 8.3 Cano 0.2
Age 26 5.21 Yount 10.5 Alomar 2.3
Age 27 4.53 Knoblauch 8.7 Molitor -0.1
Age 28 4.92 Rodriguez 7.6 Templeton 0.7
Age 29 4.63 Rodriguez 9.4 Furcal, Yount 1.9
Age 30 3.34 Cano 6.6 Templeton -0.7
Age 31 3.57 Rodriguez 9.4 Ramirez -0.7
Age 32 4.07 Larkin 7.2 Tulowitzki 0.8
Age 33 2.75 Alomar, Cano 7.3 Garciaparra -1.6
Age 34 1.95 Larkin 5.7 Templeton -0.2
Age 35 2.29 Jeter 6.6 Pedroia -0.6
If you assume that Tatis is at the outset of a career destined to put him on a level with stars of the stripe of Jeter, Larkin, and Alomar, then the data is very good news for San Diego Padres fans. The chart encompasses 205 data points, each data point representing a single-season WAR for one of the 15 players.
Twenty-five of those data points are at 7.0 or higher; that’s potential MVP level. Another 53 data points are at 5.0 or higher, denoting a likely All-Star performer.
But there are also reasons to dampen the expectations. Nearly 50 of the data points produced by these generally exceptional players came in at +2.0 or lower…that’s basically average. And 15 were negative, meaning the player’s team could have gotten better production pulling somebody out of the minor leagues.
As a group, the performance peak came relatively early compared with a more normally talented group of players. These 15 produced their best cumulative WAR, 5.82, at age 24, although their average remained above 5.0 through age 26, and above 4.5 through age 29.
Next. Snell takes back thank you to Red Sox. dark
High expectations for a player as well-paid as Ferando Tatis Jr., then, are entirely reasonable. Now we just have to see whether he measures up to them.