Me vs. me: Debating the Cincinnati Reds

Let’s take a look at the best case scenario for the Cincinnati Reds for the 2021 season.

A debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Cincinnati Reds.

Opti-me: There are three excellent reasons for Reds fans to be really fired up about the team’s prospects in 2021. First, the pitching staff is solid. Second, the offense can’t possibly be as bad as it was in 2020. And third, hey, the Reds play in the NL Central, which is barely a recognized major league division.

Do you know how good the Reds’ pitching was last year? Second in ERA, that’s how good. Only the Dodgers were better. Fifth in runs allowed, third in home runs allowed, first in whiffs.

The offense? I cheerfully concede that it stunk. Last in batting average, last in hits, 12th in on base percentage. Votto, Suarez, Castellanos, Barnhart, Senzel, they were all way off their norms. But you know what? The Reds still won 31 games.

Pessi-me: Nice read on how good the pitching staff was last season. What’s that got to do with 2021? You may have read that Trevor Bauer’s in Los Angeles this year…it was in all the papers. You traded your closer to the Angels for a pitcher you don’t even plan to use.

I love that you’re so sure about the offense coming back. It’s endearing in a desperate sort of way. Votto will be 37 this season. His average has fallen off four straight seasons. As for Moustakas, he hit .230.

Now about the defense. Votto and Moustakas were a combined minus 36 Defensive Runs Saved on the right side of the infield last year. And it was a short season. A couple of statues could have fielded as well at far less cost. Meanwhile, Suarez was minus 10 at third. There are American Legion teams that would love to hit into the Reds infield defense in 2021.

Opti-me: This is the strikeout age, buddy. Fielding is over-rated. The Reds were No. 1 in the NL in whiffs last season. Granted, Bauer was a big part of that. But Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray both struck out three of every 10 batters they faced. So did Teejay Antone out in the pen. And Amir Garrett, our new closer, nearly fanned four of 10.

Beyond that, the Cincinnati Reds are shoring up the infield, beginning with the most important spot, shortstop. I’m telling you, this Cuban kid Jose Garcia will be a star. He hit .306 in the Cuban League when he was just 18 with solid defensive numbers. So you go off and have your little can’t-field pity party. I won’t be attending this year.

Pessi-me: You got 11 starts and 73 innings last year out of Bauer. And your plan for covering those this year is (drumroll please) … Wade Miley and Jeff Hoffman. This is a joke, right? Last year they were a combined 2-4 with an 8.23 ERA. For their careers they’re 95-101 and 4.54.

Opti-me: You’ll worry a lot less about Miley and Hoffman when you see Tyler Mahle finally get a chance. This guy’s got 94 mph stuff plus a splitter with a six-inch drop. He’s also getting better as he ages. With Bauer gone, Mahle will get a full shot this year and by season’s end, my hunch is he’ll be the star of the staff.

Speaking of budding stars, look out for Jesse Winker. The Reds finally smartened up and gave him a full shot in 2020.  Winker delivered a dozen home runs, a .544 slugging average, and a .932 OPS. That would have been top 20 in the league except he fell a couple of plate appearances short of qualifying. David Bell won’t make that mistake again.

Pessi-me: David Bell may not get a chance to make that mistake or any other for very long. His contract’s up at the end of the season, so if the Reds don’t get off to a fast start he may be among the first to go. Especially, as you said, given that the Reds play in what is basically a minor league division. I would not expect patience to be in much abundance in Cincinnati’s front office.

Not that Nick Krall and the rest of the front office have given Bell much to work with. Talk about standing pat; their big off-season acquisition was Hoffman. Even for the NL Central, that’s lethargic. Here’s my brutally honest guess: If Miley and Hoffman are as bad as they usually are, and if the offense continues on its 2020 trajectory, the 2021 Reds will provide the Pirates a window to escape last place. And by August they’ll probably be doing so under a new manager.

Opti-me: In the NL Central, the Cincinnati Reds could make the playoffs as an 85-win division champion. Do you know how many wins their 31-29 record last year projected to over a full 162 games? I’ll tell you…84. Give me full seasons from Mahle and Winker plus only a return to normal production from Suarez, Castellanos, Barnhart, and Moustakas and it isn’t at all difficult to envision that playing out.