Debating the merits of the Minnesota Twins for the 2021 season

What should we make of the Minnesota Twins? Let’s find out.

A debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Minnesota Twins.

Opti-me: What’s not to like? We’re basically bringing back the same band that won the division last year and the year before that. But why wouldn’t we? Since 2017, the Twins have a .550 winning percentage.

So what do I want coming in to 2021? Easy…I want the 2020 team back intact. And that’s basically what we’ve got; an upgrade in the infield defense, a tweak in the rotation, a promotion from part-time to full-time for a solid outfielder. Let’s go.

Pessi-me: Go where? To the post-season? What’s the point? You know the Twins’ record in post-season games as well as I do. Better maybe because those post-season losses keep optimistic you awake nights. Me being a pessimist, I just assume we’ll lose in post-season so when it happens the losses don’t bother me. I’ve already programmed them in and I’m always right.

But just to complete the record, the Twins’ post-season record is 0-18 since 2005. So I repeat my question: what’s the point?

Opti-me: You won’t admit it, but you know as well as I do that the post-season is a crapshoot. It’s the regular season, the long haul, where talent wins out. That’s what the Twins have, talent. Start with the rotation: Maeda, Berrios, Dobnak, and Pineda are all solid, and J A Happ is a reliable pickup for the fifth spot.

The MinnesotaTwins were third in the AL in ERA last season. That was no fluke, they were fifth the year before. Only Cleveland gave up fewer runs, nobody allowed fewer homers, and only three teams had more strikeouts.  It’s also a healthy staff; not an injury-related missed start among the four of them last season.

Pessi-me: Hey, if the postseason is such a crapshoot, don’t you suppose the Twins could maybe roll 7 once a decade or so? But enough of the postseason. You’re right, Maeda was very good last season. Way, way, way better, actually than he’s ever been in his life. He had a 161 ERA+, which was a personal best by something like 60 points. Do you believe in regression to the mean, because he’s due for a big return to normality in 2021.

About Pineda, he’s got to show me. Yeah, he looked real good in 2019, 11-5 and a 4.01 ERA. Then he got busted for PEDs, and when he came back there wasn’t enough left of 2020 to tell anything.

Opti-me: Pineda looked good in those half dozen late 2020 appearances. So I’m not nearly as worried about him as you are. But let me tell you about the steal of the decade. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine pulled it off this winter when they signed Andrelton Simmons to play shortstop.

All it cost them was a crummy $10.5 million; that’s less than arbitration money. And Simmons may be the best-fielding shortstop in the American League. Nobody knows it because he was wasted out in Anaheim, but until injuries got him last season he was routinely worth 20 or more Defensive Runs Saved per season.

He’s not a bad stick, either. Put Simmons at short, move Polanco to second, let Buxton and Garver do their thing, and your middle defense is totally squared away.

Pessi-me: Simmons and Polanco better be good because they’ll be playing alongside Donaldson and Sano at third and first. There was a day when Donaldson was a perfectly adequate third baseman. But he’s 35 now and the inevitable decline phase is just about due to set in.

Speaking of decline phases, I see we’ve got Nelson Cruz back at DH. Too bad…at  40 he’d have been a great hire as hitting coach.

As for Sano, only a committed Minnesota Twins fan could get fired up about a guy who led the league in strikeouts last season while batting .204. Sincere congrats on surviving that and still winning the division. Stretch those 90 whiffs over 162 games and you get 243 of them, which would absolutely inundate the all-time record.

Opti-me: So, age-ism rears its ugly head, huh? Cruz may be 40, but he hit 16 homers last season with a .303 average and a .992 OPS. He was sixth in the MVP voting and won a Silver Slugger. Or should I say another Silver Slugger because it was his fourth. That’s the guy you want to put out to pasture? No wonder nobody wants you around.

Pessi-me: Here’s my big problem with the Twins. They think you can stand still and get by. But success is a passing parade.

Their big rivals, the White Sox, brought in a bunch of proven arms to bolster a deep cast of young talent. The Twins front office got: Andrelton Simmons and J A Happ. I see Minnesota being left in the Sox’ dust this summer. If they’re really lucky, maybe they stumble into a wild card…and a chance to extend their postseason losing streak. But once Maeda returns to Maeda form, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Opti-me: I grant the Sox did more than the Twins this winter. But don’t make the mistake of confusing churn for improvement. The Twins didn’t do much because they didn’t need to do much.

Most of the team’s core – Garver, Sano, Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Dobnak, Rogers – is between 25 and 30, the absolute athletic prime. Why break that core up? This team is solid for another .550 season, and my hunch is that’s good enough for another divisional title.

Once the Minnesota Twins get to October, I see them finally rolling that lucky 7. It is, after all, a crapshoot, and we are way, way overdue.