Debating the merits of the 2021 Colorado Rockies
By Bill Felber
The Colorado Rockies think they can compete in 2021. Do they really have a reason to believe?
A debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Colorado Rockies.
Opti-me: This is going to sound really weird coming out of Denver. But the No. 1 reason to be cranked about the Rockies this season? It’s the pitching staff.
Think about it. When was the last time Colorado brought back its entire rotation from one season to the next? And it’s a legit move. Marquez, Senzatela, Freeland, Gray, Gonzalez…the average age is 26 and all five of them showed off growth potential.
I get that this isn’t a championship team – not yet, anyway. But after a quarter-century the Rockies finally have the makings of a serious, stable rotation. That’s a huge first step. Marquez throws 96, Senzatela and Gray 94. Freeland bounced back after a bad 2019 that more and more looks like an aberration.
If the Rockies can pitch, good things can’t be far behind.
Pessi-me: You’re right, that does sound really weird. They finished one game out of the division cellar last year, had the worst ERA in the National League by half a run, and you’re buzzed because those guys are all coming back.
I know pot’s legal in Colorado, but let’s try to see things as the rest of the country sees them. You had two high-quality players in Denver last year, Arenado and Story. You shipped one of them to St. Louis for five guys who probably won’t even make the team out of spring camp.
As for Story, stand by for further developments. The guy’s a good hitter, maybe even a great one. He’s a solid fielder. But his deal’s up at season’s end, and luring him to extend with the prospect of playing the next few seasons alongside Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers may test Jeff Bridich’s powers of persuasion.
Opti-me: Guys like Brendan Rodgers are another reason to be fired up about the Rockies. The Rocks have needed to give him a chance, and now they’re doing so. He looked good in 2018 and hit .286. The same with Josh Fuentes at first. They finally gave him a chance in 2020 and he hit .306 with 17 RBIs. I for one want to see what he can do over a full season.
As for that shot about only having one star left, aren’t you selling the outfield a little short? Charlie Blackmon’s a confirmed .300 hitter with almost no home-road differential. In other words, the guy’s nasty. That’s why they call him Chuck Nasty. Well, that and the beard.
And the Rockies discovered Raimel Tapia in 2020. He’s another .300 hitter, including on the road. Get him in Coors last year and he hit .350. Beyond that, Tapia will be 27 this year, exactly in his prime.
Pessi-me: Even if I spot you Blackmon and Tapia, you have nothing to replace Arenado, and no power to speak of. Let’s look over the numbers. Last year the Rockies were 11th in the NL in home runs. Only the Marlins, Pirates, D-Backs, and Cardinals hit fewer. You were below league average in runs scored, last in walks and only the Brewers, Braves, and Cubs struck out more. Your team OPS+ — that’s adjusted for park – was 80.
That’s not even bad, that’s horrible. And that’s before you gave Arenado to St. Louis.
Opti-me: Look, nobody’s predicting a divisional pennant. Not with the Dodgers and Padres both bulking up. All we want to see here is progress. And we will. You’re so worked up about losing Arenado…what’d he do last year? I’ll tell you what: His average fell off 60 points, he lost 224 points off his OPS, and he bitched about how he wasn’t loved here.
He cost the team $35 million, he was going to cost $35 million more annually through 2024, and for that, we were getting a clubhouse cancer. Trading him sounds like addition by subtraction to me. Beyond that, I have a sneaking feeling that in a year or two a couple of those kids we got for him, probably Gil and Montero, are doing things here that Arenado isn’t doing for the Cardinals.
Pessi-me: Might happen, but don’t bet on it. Trades of stars for prospects have this recurringly funny way of not working out. But I didn’t come here to talk about the future; I came here to talk about the present. The Rockies don’t have one…a present, that is.
If ever I saw a team poised to break 15-30 out of the gate this season, Colorado is it. When that happens, you should be secure in last place and every team in baseball is calling about Story. By July 1 somebody else will have him.
Then you and your optimistic Rockies friends can focus on what you enjoy more than anything: dreaming about a future that never actually arrives because you keep trading it away.
Opti-me: So it’s 15-30, is it? You’re forgetting about that veteran young pitching staff, which will at least keep us in games. As I said at the outset, this isn’t a championship team, not even in my fantasies. But it is a competent one, it’s capable of playing .500 major league ball, and most importantly it will grow and develop with the season.
I’ll make you this prediction: As Fuentes, Rodgers, and those other kids get used to being out on their own, the Colorado Rockies will be a better team in August and September than they are in April and May.