Nine Years Later, Miami Marlins Finally Land Gio Gonzalez

Wednesday was hardly the first time the Miami Marlins had been linked to Gio Gonzalez, but it was the first time they got a deal done.

Apparently, the Miami Marlins decided that the third time was the charm Wednesday afternoon, signing veteran southpaw Gio Gonzalez to a minor league contract.

In 2021 terms, the move represents a low-risk, high-reward signing. However, long time Miami Marlins fans will know that this is a move that has been a long time coming for the South Florida native.

Before getting to the what-if game though, let’s talk 2021 expectations. Why make this move at all if you’re the Marlins?

Well, you can never have enough pitching depth- even if you’re an organization that already has pitching aplenty like Miami. That being said, something that the Marlins organization is shallow on is veteran pitching depth. The lion’s share of Miami’s Top 30 prospects might well be starting pitchers, but they are just that- prospects. Additionally, why start a service time clock when you don’t have to?

As for how this signing reflects the Miami Marlins’ thinking of how the battle for that fifth spot in the starting rotation is going, I wouldn’t read too much into it. Gonzalez put up a grizzly 4.83 ERA last season, along with a career worst 1.863 WHIP. In four starts, he never made it out of the fifth inning. In a what have you done for me lately business, it’s not what you want from one of your rotation regulars.

There’s every reason to believe that someone out of the Trevor Rogers/Braxton Garrett/Daniel Castano/Etc. group can surpass those numbers.  What this does say is that perhaps the Miami Marlins are only confident one of those players is going to establish themselves as worthy of a roster spot in four weeks. This means that the rotation is just an injury away from needing some extra help. Or that it already does, if the team is thinking six-man rotation in the early goings.

One more possibility for why this move got made when it did- the delay of the Triple-A season. Miami might have felt a lot better about calling upon one of their young arms for a spot start when they were pitching every fifth day, as opposed to just stretching in Jupiter. If nothing else, they can count on a veteran like Gonzalez to be unfazed by whatever comes up.

Of course, in 2017, Gonzalez was pitching well enough to take the ball on Opening Day. And as recently as 2019, he put up a 3.50 ERA across 19 appearances and 17 starts. If 2020 was a blip, the Miami Marlins just hit a home run.

Which is exactly what they tried to do at least two other times in team history.

Heading into Marlins Park in 2012, the Marlins were heavily linked to the Oakland A’s in trade talks. Oakland wanted to shed salary and rebuild. Miami wanted to contend overnight, and had their eyes on Gonzalez. Between his Florida roots and All-Star effort in 2011, he seemed a perfect fit. The problem was that Oakland wanted one of Miami’s two best young hitters in return. Either Logan Morrison….or Giancarlo Stanton. Plus additional prospects.

Saying no on the Stanton front? Understandable, and the six years of the moonshots Marlins fans got to watch was probably worth it. Not moving Morrison though? That hurts, and unless those additional prospects were Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich, it really makes you wonder what that 2012 team would have looked like with Gonzalez in the rotation. After all, all Gonzalez did in 2012 was lead the majors in wins with 21, for the Washington Nationals.

Certainly, the 2012 team had its issues, and maybe Gonzalez would have been one more 2012 acquisition dealt in that second firesale. Then again, he was just entering arbitration. Miami might have kept him. And if they didn’t, what current star would they have gotten for him? The ripples are tantalizing on what could have been with any of those just missed the playoffs Marlins’ squads from 2014-2017.

One more opportunity existed in 2015, when Miami was loading for bear again on another ill-fated spending spree. However, the Nationals were pretty insistent on getting Christian Yelich back in that deal. On the one hand, that wasn’t close to fair value at that point in Gonzalez’s career. On the other, two years of Gio Gonzalez would have been more useful than anything the Miami Marlins did get in the Yelich trade they did eventually make two years later. And who knows who Miami would have signed to replace Yelich? Maybe a replacement level outfielder, plus Gonzalez, would have pushed the Marlins into the playoffs in 2016 or 2017.

It’s fun to wonder what if. Now let’s just hope Gonzalez is fun to watch for the Marlins in 2021.