2021 Seattle Mariners preview: Development key to season

As the Seattle Mariners head into the 2021 season, development will be the key to their success.

A debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Seattle Mariners

Opti-me: If you’re a Mariners fan, the first thing you need is hope. This year, maybe for the first time in years,  we’ve really got it. Let me start with the kids. Kyle Lewis had an impressive rookie season – good enough to win Rookie Of The Year — Ty France showed he can hit major league pitching, and Justus Sheffield (4-3, 3.58) proved himself to be a future No. 1 starter.

The best part is they’re all 25 or younger. And if I grant you that Evan White had a rough first season, will you concede that he showed enough power – eight home runs – to merit a longer look at first base?  Give me just standard upgrades from that rookie class and our third place finish in 2020 begins to look ever so slightly like contender status in the AL West in 2021.

Pessi-me: I’m going to try to be nice in what follows,  mostly because we all know that the Mariners have the longest run of post-season failure not just in baseball but in all pro sports in all of North America. I don’t want to hurt already-tender feelings.

But think about that. Not a single post-season game since 2001. That’s like 92 million Americans – I’m not making that number up – who weren’t even born the last time the Mariners made postseason play.

I get that if a guy  like Evan White comes along with a great physique and a lot of pub, then lays a season-long egg, your first reaction is ‘give him more of a chance.’ That’s the kind of upbeat guy you are. Me, I prefer to deal in facts. He hit .176. He struck out four times for every 10 plate appearances. Even in the modern strikeouts-be-darned game, you can’t have that.

Opti-me: I take it from your silence that you’ll concede Lewis, Sheffield, and France are legit. Good… we’re making progress. But the roster improvement doesn’t stop there. We beefed up the rotation with James Paxton and Chris Flexen, and made a deal with Texas that brought in Rafael Montero to close.

Put those guys with Sheffield, Marco Gonzalez (7-2, 3.10), and Justin Dunn (4-1, 4.34) and that rotation starts to look pretty solid.

Pessi-me: By what standard does adding James Paxton and Chris Flexen represent improvement? The best you can say for Paxton is that he didn’t literally break down in New York. But a 6.64 ERA in five starts is hardly an endorsement. Yeah, I know the Mariners have an emotional attachment to him,  I know he blames his bad season on trying to come back too soon from those back problems, and he says that’s all behind him now. We’ll see.

As for Flexen, are we talking about the same guy. The Flexen I know hasn’t pitched in two years and was 3-11 with an 8.07 ERA when he did pitch.

I know you’d like to forget about that multi-year deal you gave Yusei Kikuchi a few years ago and the $17 million you’re going to pay him this year. But if I were counting on Flexen and Paxton, I’d keep Kikuchi’s number on speed dial. Even with an 8-15 record and 5.39 ERA, he may look like a viable rotation option in a month or two.

Opti-me: With a year’s growth, this lineup is going to give Kikuchi, Sheffield, Dunn, Gonzalez, and anybody else a lot more support this summer. We were 12th in the AL in runs per game in 2020 and 13th in batting  average, but management did what needed to be done over the winter. It turned over five of the nine starting positions. There’s a new regular catcher, a new second baseman, two new outfielders and France is going to start somewhere, probably DH.

The guy I really want to see is Tom Murphy behind the plate. He looked good in 2019 after the Mariners got him in a trade. But then he broke a bone in his foot before the 2020 season got underway, never played an inning and they really missed him.

We’re talking about an 18-homer guy with a decent average, so bringing him back is a major bonus. They may also have a find in Dylan Moore, who gained 50 points on his batting average last year. Nobody’s been able to figure out what to do with Moore, but when Shed Long was dumped that opened up 2nd base with Moore getting the shot. Again, there’s legit power potential. Look at his .859 OPS+ last season.

Pessi-me: Murphy, Moore, Jake Fraley, J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger…you’re pinning a lot of hopes on a lot of players with no value on the open market. It’s possible you know the true value of those guys and the rest of the baseball world doesn’t…but I’d bet against it.

For two decades, the safest bet in sports has been that Seattle will be home by the fire in October. You haven’t said anything to make me change that bet. You have three winning seasons in the last 11. Why should 2021 be any different?

Opti-me: The Seattle Mariners were third in the AL West last year and they may have made the biggest upgrade. The core of this team will break that post-season absentee streak. It may not happen this year – although I wouldn’t rule that out – but it will happen soon.