MLB Rankings: Projecting the worst teams for 2021
The MLB regular season is less than one month away. Spring Training camps are in full swing and, this week, teams began playing their first live games since the final out of the 2020 World Series in October.
While the majority of MLB teams are thrilled for a fresh start and a chance at the 2021 postseason, a few teams must prepare for a long year of baseball. Call to the Pen previously released its MLB rankings for the most improved teams heading into this season. Now, it’s time to talk about some harsh realities. Check out the MLB rankings projecting the worst teams for 2021.
MLB Rankings: Check out projections for the five worst teams of 2021
Each of the teams earning a spot on this list possess some common themes. The worst teams of every new MLB season are commonly too inexperienced, missing true star power, and suffered a disastrous offseason.
Baltimore Orioles: no chance at the postseason
This list begins with the Baltimore Orioles, who finished 25-35 and fourth in the AL East last season. A recent report from FanGraphs revealed the Orioles are the best bet not to make the 2021 playoff field. Each year, FanGraphs releases odds for every MLB team to make the postseason. This year, every team owned at least a minuscule chance at postseason baseball, save the Orioles. Baltimore earned a 0.00 percent chance.
Not the best news to kick off a new year. Still, there’s a reason the Orioles are listed on our projections for the worst MLB teams in 2021. Baltimore sits in the middle of a full rebuild. The strength of Baltimore’s schedule is another main factor in this decision. Baltimore owns the league’s toughest strength of schedule at 52.3 percent.
Aside from the tough schedule, the Orioles are not built for success. Baltimore owns a ton of young talent, including several names that don’t project higher than Minor League talents. But, on a rebuilding team with a serious lack of talent, these types of players get a shot at the big leagues.
Ryan Mountcastle and Hanser Alberto enjoyed the most successful seasons for Baltimore’s position players last year. Mountcastle hit .333 with five home runs and appears to be a building block for the future, while Alberto was let go. Veteran Jose Iglesias also enjoyed a breakout campaign, hitting .373 in 39 games. But, the 31-year-old was traded away, moving onto the Los Angeles Angels.
The pitching staff was average last season with a team ERA of 4.51, but don’t expect the same level of success over a full campaign. Baltimore’s staff is comprised of a number of young talents including John Means, Keegan Akin, and Dean Kremer. This young staff will likely struggle to eat up innings by the time late summer rolls around. Baltimore added zero-risk veteran free-agents in Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey, two starters in their 30’s that haven’t registered sub-4.00 ERAs since 2016.
Trey Mancini’s return from cancer is the best thing Baltimore fans will see this year. Of course, they also have to worry about the league’s worst contract in Chris Davis. Davis is owed $23 million this season but hasn’t hit above .200 since 2017.
Colorado Rockies: worst offseason in MLB history?
It’s time to be blunt. The Colorado Rockies suffered one of the worst offseasons in MLB history this past winter. In fact, Colorado hasn’t done much of anything during the offseasons dating back to 2018. The last time the Rockies signed a free agent to a major league contract was at the end of 2018. What’s worse? Colorado let their most prized possession, Nolan Arenado, essentially walk to St. Louis.
Arenado’s walking away came in the form of a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals, but Arenado is not only a superstar but a smart guy. He saw the writing on the wall. That writing? It’s time for an exodus from Colorado because this team has many long years of miserable baseball ahead.
The Rockies finished just eight games below .500 baseball last season and fourth in the NL West. But, all of the expert models project the Rockies to finish dead last in the NL West this season, with slim to no chance at the postseason. The loss of Arenado is the biggest factor, as Colorado will have to fill his five-time All-Star caliber talent without any tangible solutions. Arenado owns 162-game averages of a .293 batting average, 35 home runs, 114 RBIs, and 181 hits.
Last season, Colorado ranked 22nd in the MLB with 63 team home runs. Take out Arenado’s eight home runs last year and the Rockies rank second to last with 55. Trevor Story is playing in his final contract year, which may indicate he’s in for a successful season. However, power hitters struggle without lineup protection, and Story may be pitched around quite often next year.
The pitching staff is a question mark, mostly because of the bullpen. Last year, Colorado ranked 29th in the MLB with a total team ERA of 5.59. The bullpen owned a 6.67 ERA in comparison to the starting staff’s 4.83 ERA. And, giving up home runs is always an issue when playing half of your games at Coors Field. Colorado gave up 83 home runs last season, 45 attributed to starters and 38 to relievers. That number will need to stay as low as possible for Colorado to retain any success this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates: the rebuild has begun
If there was any chance the Pittsburgh Pirates weren’t entering a full rebuild, last year and this past offseason cemented it. Pittsburgh finished last season as the MLB’s worst team in terms of win-loss record. The Pirates managed just 19 wins and 41 losses. On the heels of this brutally underwhelming performance, the front office went into full rebuild mode this offseason.
Pittsburgh traded Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove, and Jameson Taillon during the break. These three names comprised the only real, tangible talent the Pirates had on the roster last season. Bell was sent away to the Washington Nationals for a pair of right-handed pitchers. Musgrove headed to San Diego as part of a three-team deal with the New York Mets. Pittsburgh only returned prospect Endy Rodriguez in the deal. Finally, the Pirates sent Taillon to the New York Yankees for four more prospects.
Pittsburg did acquire veteran starting pitcher Tyler Anderson in free agency, but the rest of the roster is comprised of young talent looking to take small, positive steps this year. The supporting cast, highlighted by names such as Kevin Newman at shortstop, Ke’Bryan Hayes at third base, and starting pitcher Mitch Keller, should take this next step. However, the loss of Pittsburgh’s three biggest talents in Bell, Musgrove, and Taillon will hurt this team in the short-term.
The Detroit Tigers may turn a corner under new manager
While the first three teams on this list will be undoubtedly bad next season, the next two offer some room for error. After last year’s 23-35 finish, the Detroit Tigers were busy this offseason. The biggest news came in the hiring of new manager A.J. Hinch, who won the 2017 World Series title with the Houston Astros. Hinch brings a fresh air of promise to Detroit, who has finished with sub-.500 records every year since 2016. Back then, Miguel Cabrera was still on the very back end of his prime.
The Tigers’ recent rebuild should take its first step in a positive direction next season. Jeimer Candelario and Willi Castro showed promise last season and still have the ability to turn into solid MLB players. Pitchers Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize will start in the minors but aren’t far from making an impact at the big-league level.
This offseason, Detroit signed a number of low-risk, veteran free agents including Jose Urena, Robbie Grossman, Wilson Ramos, Nomar Mazara, and Derek Holland. This cast of veterans will help keep the Tigers afloat throughout this season while prospects continue to hone their crafts in the minors.
Detroit also has a ton of payroll available with only $75.4 million on the books next season. It’s not time for the Tigers to compete yet, but fans should expect good looks at the franchise’s top prospects later in the summer. It will be fun to see how Hinch and his staff can further develop this talent.
Texas Rangers: time for a new core
After last season’s 22-38 finish, the Texas Rangers decided it was time to start with a new core of players. This included hiring former MLB pitcher Chris Young as GM. One of Young’s earliest and biggest moves was passing the shortstop torch from long-time Ranger Elvis Andrus to Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Andrus was dealt to the Oakland Athletics for designated hitter Khris Davis after it was reported Kiner-Falefa will likely shift from third to short. Davis owns light-tower power and should enjoy hitting in the Texas summer heat.
Kiner-Falefa is the future in Texas. He’s already won a Gold Glove Award and hit .280/.329/.370 with three home runs and eight stolen last season. The Rangers also dealt ace starting pitcher Lance Lynn to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Dane Dunning. Dunning is one of those can’t-miss prospects and will own a spot in Texas’ starting rotation for a long time.
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The Rangers have a number of highly-rated prospects, so expect to see names like Rougned Odor continue to either be traded or have their contracts expire as Texas moves into its next guard. Joey Gallo’s strikeout ratio may improve with the balance of another power bat in Davis’ addition to the lineup. The Rangers aren’t nearly as bad as some of the other teams on this list. They have known MLB talent, and prospects waiting in the wings.