Jesus Aguilar, Miami Marlins Pos: 1B 2020 Stats: .277 BA, 8 HR, 37 RBI
Projected Starter: Yes Fantasy Value: Corner Infield/Deep Roto Chance To Make Team: 100%
There’s no argument the best move the Miami Marlins made last offseason was acquiring Jesus Aguilar.
Plucked off waivers from Tampa Bay, Aguilar was initially the least heralded of the trio of new starters poised to join Miami in 2020. Yet he would go on to be worth 0.6 WAR more than Corey Dickerson and Jonathan Villar combined, and posted his best batting average since 2015 (when he had a really productive seven game season for Cleveland as a rookie). He finished second on the team in HRs and RBIs, and even homered in Miami’s 5-1 Game 1 NLWC victory over the Cubs.
Going into 2021, he’s definitely being viewed as a key cog in the Miami Marlins offense.
One big thing working in Aguilar’s favor is durability- he was one of only three Marlins to play in over fifty games last season. And while much of the 2020 math there was on account of the team’s Covid outbreak, it is fair to say he doesn’t come with nearly as much injury baggage as Cooper brings to the ballpark. The ceiling may be limited, but Miami can feel confident he’ll be there every time they call his number.
Despite some rough 2021 predictions– you won’t find a projection site listed on Fangraphs calling for better than a .251/.336/.446 slash line- there would seem to be at least some surface deep optimism to expect 2021 numbers much closer to his 2020 pace. He’s hit .265 or better in three of his last four seasons, and over .270 in two of the last three. It really looks as if that disastrous 2019 was more outlier than true outcome.
One reason to believe this, if you’re a fan of the advanced stats. His 2020 BABIP was just a tick above league average at .306, hardly impossible to repeat. And he just posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career as a big league regular, at 18.5%.
My biggest concern with Aguilar actually comes down to how he’ll handle splitting at least some time with Cooper. With no DH in the NL this season, Aguilar doesn’t have another spot in the order to move to when he isn’t playing first. He could be fully healthy all season, and still be lucky to start over 100 games. Maybe it keeps him super fresh, or maybe it messes with his head.
Aguilar Best Case: Just locks down the starting job, and plays 145 plus games. Hitting 25 HRs and 100 RBI feels like the ceiling to me in that case, with a 275/.360/.450 slash. He proves once and for all he is closer to the 2018 All-Star than the 2019 discard.
Aguilar Worst Case: Can’t get in a rhythm on account of role sharing, or does just outright lose the job in camp. That’s possible if Cooper and Adam Duvall look like they’re ready to run back their 2020 production for 2021. But assuming regular playing time, let’s call it .245 with 15 HRs.
Prediction: Plays 110 games for a rebuilding team looking for their 2022 DH, and hits 18 HRs with a .270 average. I like the strikeout dip, even if I expect him to challenge whoever wins second base for the team lead in strikeouts.