2021 Boston Red Sox preview: Looking to return to contention

Can the Boston Red Sox return to contention in 2021? Or will this be another bridge year as they build towards the future?

A debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Boston Red Sox.

Opti-me: There’s one thing the really good Red Sox teams have always had. Swag. We’re talking about Ortiz and Damon in 2004, Ortiz and Manny in 2007, Ortiz again in 2013, Mookie in 2018. Those guys were good and they darned well knew it.

That’s what we lost when Mookie left. It’s also probably why the Dodgers won, but that’s another story. Here’s the thing: It’s back. Two words: Bobby Dalbec.

This kid is 6-4, 225, and the guys in the know project him to be a 30-home run hitter right out of the gate. Plus he’s got personality; he doesn’t think anybody can get him out consistently.

Pessi-me: For a rookie, Dalbec had an OK season in 2020…if you like air conditioning. That 42 percent whiff rate, he may need to work on that. But 11 extra base hits, eight of them leaving the yard, in 92 plate appearances … I’ll give you that on the occasions when he happens to hit it the ball goes a long way.

But your problem isn’t hitting the ball. I actually think you’ll be able to do that with Verdugo, Hernandez, Bogaerts, Devers, and maybe even Martinez.

Your problem will be throwing it and catching it. Let’s begin with the pitching part. Chris Sale may be ready by mid-season, and that’s if everything goes well. You can’t count on that. So now you’re counting on Nathan Eovaldi – plausible – Martin Perez and Garrett Richards.

I’m old enough to remember when Richards was a pretty good pitcher. That would be with the Angels in 2015. Since then he’s 8-12 in 41 starts and 200 innings. So you can pretty well count on five starts, 40 or 50 innings, and arm trouble.

Opti-me: If Richards did anything in 2020, he proved he can make a regular turn in the rotation. He made 14 starts, his 4.03 ERA may not have been great but it was decent, and he never spent a day on the IL.

But you were right about one thing; this team can hit. The Sox may have been last in the division last year, but they averaged 4.87 runs per game – that was fifth in the AL – on they did that on a .265 average. For the record, that was the AL’s best.

I understand why everybody’s dogging the Betts deal, but Verdugo’s a sleeper star who won’t be a sleeper by mid-season. He hit .308 in 2020 with a .844 OPS. That may not exactly be Betts-like, but it’s proximate.

Then there’s our other Dodger pickup, Kiki Hernandez. He’s penciled in at second, but I like him anywhere. More swag. As for Bogaerts, consistent .300 stick, good reputation at short, 30 home run power.

Give me Verdugo, Bogaerts, Devers, Dalbec, and Martinez at the top of the order in Fenway for 81 games and you’ll see run production.

Pessi-me: If Sale doesn’t come back to his 2018 form, you’ll see run production from both dugouts. You may have forgotten that your pitchers allowed 5.85 runs per game in 2020 – only Colorado gave up more – on a 5.58 ERA that was second-worst in the AL.

You’re plugging in Martin Perez as a rotation regular. He had a 4.50 ERA last season and that was one of his better years. You’re plugging in Eduardo Rodriguez for another rotation spot. He didn’t pitch at all last year…more injuries.

On a positive note, if Rodriguez, Eovaldi, and Richards break down again and Sale doesn’t come back, I’m available on short notice…just text me.

Opti-me: We haven’t talked yet about perhaps the biggest addition for 2021, that being the manager. The Sox really missed Alex Cora in the dugout last season. He brings fire, leadership, enthusiasm, brains, and inventiveness. I’m not sure how you quantify the manager’s contributions, but I’ll say this: the Red Sox are better off because Alex Cora’s around again.

Pesi-me: I’ll tell you one area where you’re not better off, and that’s catching the ball. The Red Sox had the second worst Defensive Runs Saved in the AL in 2020, the second worst fielding percentage and the worst Total Zone Fielding rating.  And that was before you lost Jackie Bradley and Andrew Benintendi.

Look at your projected middle defense. Your shortstop, Bogaerts, has been double digits negative in Defensive Runs Saved for each of the last four years. Verdugo has been a nice defender in right, and may he can make the shift to center. Devers has been a consistent defensive liability, and nobody – not even you – expects Bobby Dalbec to make his mark with his glove.

Combine not being able to catch the ball with not being able to pitch the ball and also factor in losing two-thirds of your outfield. You know what you wind up with? Another fifth place team. Which is where you’ll be by the time Chris Sale comes back.

Opti-me: Bobby Dalbec will be the AL Rookie of the Year. Bobby Dalbec will be a 40-home run guy. Bobby Dalbec will be an All Star. He won’t be alone, either. Verdugo will make it and so will Bogaerts. There might be an MVP in there, too.

The Boston Red Sox finished last in 2012. One season later they were World Series champs. They finished fifth in 2015 and one season later won 93 games and the AL East. Don’t be surprised if it happens again.