With a 162-game season on the docket, Vegas Insider released the 2021 MLB win totals for all 30 teams. Unsurprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers carry the highest total (102.5) in the NL, and the New York Yankees’ 95.5 wins are the most of any AL club.
The Yankees will launch Part One of our six-part, six-division over-under evaluation. We’ll go division by division, team by team, predicting whether each will exceed their total or fall short of it.
Let’s dig into the AL East.
New York Yankees
Over/Under 95.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Vegas thinks less of the Bronx Bombers ahead of the 2021 season, dropping them 5.5 wins from their 2020 total.
The Yankees are a tricky first subject, as they present several significant unknowns. A 96-win team is typically led by a high-caliber starting rotation, something New York might have.
Gerrit Cole is the ace every club wants; though, his fellow starters leave a lot to the imagination. Jameson Taillon hasn’t thrown in a big-league game since May of 2019. His 2018 campaign resulted in 32 starts, 179 strikeouts, and a 3.20 ERA; whether he can pitch anywhere near as effectively after incurring multiple right-arm injuries remains to be seen, however.
Corey Kluber is in the same boat. He tossed one inning in 2020 before being shut down due to a muscle tear in his throwing shoulder. A broken forearm cut his 2019 season five months short, also. The 34-year-old finished third in Cy Young voting only three years ago, but how far have recent wounds thrown him off track?
Furthermore, the Yankees don’t know what to expect from Domingo German as he returns from his 80-game domestic violence suspension. Nor do they have a confident timeline for Luis Severino as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery.
They will hit, but are they equipped from a pitching standpoint to win more than 95 games?
A wise bettor will examine New York’s competition as well. Scanning the AL East, the Blue Jays should improve considerably; the Rays will likely regress only slightly; the Red Sox have the look of a .500 club, and the Orioles still suffer from a severe talent gap. All of the Yankees interleague action will be against the NL East, widely considered MLB’s strongest division. They match up with the Mets and Braves the most out of that five-team pool.
Given the short season last year, the upcoming one will feel extra long to the players, especially the pitchers. The Yankees are in over their heads if believing their current selection of eligible starters can handle the looming workload. They’re a playoff team, but not of the 96+-win variety.