MLB Win Totals 2021: Boston Red Sox
Over/Under 80.5 wins
Prediction: Under
The Red Sox finished the 2020 campaign 12 games under .500. It was a season in which everything that could go wrong did go wrong. J.D. Martinez had a terrible two months, and Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez never pitched. They went 14-26 against their division.
Boston will be more competitive in 2021 with Alex Cora back at the helm. Sale will return from injury at some point, and their rotation should be healthier. These factors won’t make them a force in the East, however.
The Red Sox will have their hands full trying to win half their games. They spent the offseason on a treadmill, moving but not actually going anywhere. In replace of Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. in the outfield, they brought in Hunter Renfroe and Franchy Cordero. The new additions will have an impact, but it’s unlikely they perform as well for Boston as their predecessors did.
The Sox win total could become distant if they’re lagging in their division and hit the seller’s market in July. Potential trade candidates include relievers Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino. They could also look to deal catcher Christian Vazquez and infielder Michael Chavis.
Ultimately, it’s tough to see Boston going toe-to-toe with many opponents in 2021. They’re inferior to every team in the AL East except the Orioles, and there won’t be many easy wins elsewhere in the league either. Take the under 80.5 victories.
Baltimore Orioles
Over/Under 64.5 wins
Prediction: Over
The Orioles finished ahead of the Boston Red Sox in the standings in 2020. They were on pace to win 68 games had they played an entire season.
Slowly but surely, the O’s are working their way back to relevance. Their offense plated 274 runs last year, more than seven playoff teams, including the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs. Their 3.90 bullpen ERA was ninth-best in baseball.
With Trey Mancini back in the offensive mix and several young hitters settling into the big leagues, Baltimore could be a nuisance to opposing pitchers this season. If their pen can support their offense like it did last year, they could make headway.
Unfortunately, the Orioles starting pitching is far behind their other transitional phases. Opponents hit .264 against Baltimore starters in 2020, the fifth-highest mark in MLB. Their rotations also struck out the 26th-fewest batters in baseball.
It’s unlikely those numbers improve in 2021, with 34-year-old Felix Hernandez joining the staff. Hernandez’s strikeout rates have gone down each of his past three seasons, reaching a career-low 17.5% in 2019. Having opted out of the 2020 season, he could be in for a rude awakening as he tries to work his way back in a high-powered AL East.
The Baltimore Orioles may have caught everyone by surprise in the short season. They started 11-7 but went on to lose 28 of their last 42 games. They won’t catch anyone by surprise this year, but their talent will push forward just enough to get them to 65 wins.