2021 Arizona Diamondbacks preview: Trying to find optimism in the desert

It is difficult to find any reason to be upbeat about the Arizona Diamondbacks ahead of the 2021 season. Let’s try to find a reason for optimism.

A debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Arizona Diamondbacks.

Opti-me: You’re going to make this point anyway, and in more sarcastic tones. So I’ll just pre-empt you. It’s harder to get fired up this spring about the Diamondbacks than may be any other team in baseball.

Still, my nature is to be upbeat, so here goes. First and most obviously, the pitching is bound to be better than it was in 2020. There’s almost a law of nature element to it. Madison Bumgarner was 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA. When has that ever happened? Not in your wildest dreams.

Then there’s Luke Weaver, 1-9, 6.58. I’ll concede that Luke Weaver has never been Madison Bumgarner, but he was a competent big league pitcher for his first three seasons.

Finally, we’re counting on Caleb Smith. And I mean counting big-time. He looked good after we heisted him from the Marlins last August, a 2.45 ERA in three starts coming off of Covid. Now we need him to show the ability he showed in Miami the first two months of 2019, when he started 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA.

Then a hip injury got him, and he was only just getting over it when Covid rabbit-punched his 2020.

Pessi-me: There’s plenty of reason for Diamondbacks fans to be optimistic this spring…it’s just that none of it has to do with baseball. The golf courses in Arizona flat-out rock, and if the Diamondbacks play like I anticipate this year there’ll be nothing to keep you away from those courses.

Your case for optimism, which hinges on  Bumgarner, Weaver and Smith all being better – because they can’t be any worse – is so weak that it hardly needs refuting. Bumgarner’s obviously the most interesting of those three.

I get why you’re so hopeful about him. If I was committed to paying somebody nearly $80 million over the next four seasons I’d be hopeful, too. It’s not like you have a choice.

And if you go strictly by the numbers, it makes sense. Prior to 2020 Bumgarner never had an ERA above 4.00, but he signs with you and jumps right to 6.48. That’s got to normalize, right?

But I’ll give you a number you may want to really worry about. It’s 7,697. That’s the number of batters Bumgarner’s faced in his career. Jacob DeGrom is two years older than Bumgarner, but he’s faced 3,000 fewer hitters. Gerrit Cole’s faced 2,500 fewer, and he’s just one year younger. Yu Darvish is three years older, but he’s faced 3,000 fewer.

So I put the question to you: Did Madison Bumgarner have an unusually bad 2020? Or is he just pitched out?

Opti-me: We’ll sure find out because at basically $20 million per year for four years he’s in the rotation.

But for all the angst you’re trying to inundate me with regarding 2020, it wasn’t actually that bad a season. Granted, the Diamondbacks were last in the NL West. But the offense was basically mid-pack, and after the Starling Marte trade, the Snakes played pretty well.

Arizona finished 10-6 and outscored opponents by more than a run per game in the final three weeks. There were really only two teams we couldn’t beat, the Dodgers and Giants. Aside from them, we played .525 ball.

Pessi-me: I checked. The Dodgers are Giants are both on your schedule again this season. Tough break. So are the Padres, who got nearly everybody worth getting this winter except for Trevor Bauer…the Dodgers got him.

The Diamondbacks’ problem is they have nobody to build around, no star. Coming in to last year, you thought it might be Ketel Marte. The guy was a 26-year-old phenom just off a .329 average, a .981 OPS, and an All Star game appearance.

I’m not knocking what Marte did in 2020. He was OK, .287 average, .732 OPS. But .732 is hardly star material. Now you’re so thin you can’t even figure out where to play him. No joke; Arizona’s depth chart has Marte listed as the regular at second base AND center field. News flash; that’s asking a lot.

Opti-me: We may not have had a star in 2020, but we had growth. Carson Kelly, Christian Walker, Nick Ahmed, David Peralta, every one of them had a nice offensive uptick in 2020. If they even approach that growth in 2021, we’ll have the kind of offensive depth that will take a lot of pressure off Marte.

Kole Calhoun’s OPS has shot straight up for three seasons now, from .652 in2 018 to .792 and then to .864 in 2020. I’m not looking for .950 from Calhoun in 2021, but if he just holds steady it’s worth noting that he was on a 43-homer, 108-RBI pace last year.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have had this funny pattern in recent years; their winning percentage dips, then rises, then dips, then rises. That pattern has held since 2013. And the rises have been big, averaging 88 percentage points. Last season the win percentage fell to .417. It may sound odd, but that pattern alone says Arizona ought to be a better-than-.500 team in 2021. That’s good enough for me.

Pessi-me: It may be good enough for you, but it probably won’t be good enough for the Dodgers or Padres, or any other of your NL West rivals. And another thing, if Bumgarner’s arm is as old and used-up as I fear it is, your manager, Torey Lovullo may not see August. His contract’s up at season’s end and clubs often look askance at re-signing managers of fifth place teams.