2021 appears to be another rebuild year for the Baltimore Orioles, but just as the 2020 campaign presented opportunities for the Birds to display a young core, so to will be 2021’s, particularly on the pitching side.
I’m going to stay away from full-on Orioles predictions and analyses of their lineup in this article and just stick to their pitching staff, which I believe has the potential to surprise a lot of people in 2021. It may not seem like it, but from a Statcast standpoint, Oriole pitching has a lot of sleepers to keep an eye on this year.
Baltimore Orioles have several intriguing arms
First and foremost, we have to take a look at John Means. In the long-term, Means is probably a number two or three starter in a playoff-contending rotation, but for the rebuilding Oriole rotation we see now, Means is the clear Opening Day guy. And the jumps he made from 2019 to 2020 should excite every Baltimore Orioles fan out there.
While his stats didn’t reflect his upgrades in physical measurables in 2020, Means saw an uptick in fastball velocity from 91.7 in 2019 to 93.8 in 2020 as well as a changeup uptick from 80.9 in 2019 to 84.9 in 2020. And according to Baseball Savant, Means clocked into the 88th percentile in fastball spin rate in 2020 where he was in the 75th in 2019. His K-rate, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA all shot up in 2020 while his exit velo and hard hit % took significant dips. His BB% continued to stay in the top echelons of MLB.
These all read to me that Means tends to get a little too comfortable in the zone and doesn’t miss as many bats as his stuff indicates he should. His K-rate jumped up from 2019 to 2020, but that jump only landed him at about league-average, and his whiff percentage is at about the same place.
The better your “stuff” is, the better chance you have of seeing your stats improve and the more wiggle room you have to make mistakes. I believe John Means fits squarely into that category and his upticks in velocity and continued spin rate success puts him in prime position to have a positive 2021 campaign.