Those are the guys I have some reservations about but am also intrigued by; they’re question marks for me. The guys who seem to me to be the best options in this Baltimore Orioles bullpen are Paul Fry, Tanner Scott, Cole Sulser, and Shawn Armstrong.
Paul Fry is super intriguing to me. I know none of you know who he is outside of Baltimore, but Fry had a ton of spin on his fastball in 2018 and ’19 yet also had lower velocity (90.7 in 2019). He bumped that velocity up in 2020 to 92.8 and then saw his spin go down from the 70th percentile in 2018 and 82nd percentile in 2019 all the way to the 50th percentile in 2020.
But with an uptick in velocity and downtick in spin, Fry saw his hard hit % rise from the 56th percentile to the 67th from 2019 to 2020, his xwOBA and xERA skyrocket from the 52nd percentile to the 94th, his xBA skyrocket from the 63rd to the 94th, his xSLG rise from the 80th to the 96th, his whiff % rise from the 51st to the 68th, and his K-rate skyrocket from the 41st to the 79th. Higher velocity and less spin evidently makes Fry a better pitcher. I expect a similar approach in 2021.
Tanner Scott has insane spin on his fastball. He bumped up his velocity from 95.9 in 2019 to 96.5 in 2020 and landed himself in the 99th percentile in fastball spin. On top of that, he was also 93rd percentile in exit velo, 87th in hard hit %, 68th in xwOBA and xERA, 81st in xBA, 85th in barrel %, and 91st in xSLG and whiff %. The only thing that hold him back is his lack of command.
Scott has been walk-crazy for three-straight years now and in being so, his strikeout numbers do not line up where his “stuff” suggests they should. I would definitively say Scott is the Orioles’ closer, but his lack of control suggests maybe he is more suited for a setup role right now. We see wild guys clean up their act all the time- case and point Lucas Giolito. So, if Scott can keep his jitters under wraps, he’s going to be one of the league’s top relief pitchers.
Shawn Armstrong is another guy who struggles a bit with his control, but his spin ranked in the 96th percentile in 2020 and his stats were also very impressive at a 2-0 record with a 1.80 ERA in 14 appearances. His particular wildness results in him either seeing “very good” or “very bad” results as his whiff and K numbers look pretty decent while his contact numbers suggest he needs to lay the ball in the zone to come back in the count. But I view Armstrong as one of the O’s top relievers and a strong contender for their closer because his stuff has such movement on it.
Finally, we have Cole Sulser who I think is going to ultimately wind up being this team’s closer if Tanner Scott still struggles with his control. Notedly, Sulser arguably has worse control problems than Scott, but a full-fledged closer role possibly going awry for Scott (a more prized arm for the Baltimore Orioles) is more detrimental than a journeyman like Sulser.
Sulser throws about the same as Shawn Armstrong in the 93-94 mph range, but Sulser saw all three of his pitches uptick in velocity in 2020 and also found himself in the 74th percentile in whiff %.
Sulser gets a ton of swing and misses for a guy who throws about average velocity with way less spin than Scott and Armstrong, though Sulser’s spin ranked in the 79th percentile in 2020. And he led the team in saves last year with 5.
The O’s have a few guys who can close down games this year, but overall, I’d say their bullpen is sneaky good if it’s throwing strikes. I’d expect guys like Fry, Sulser, and Armstrong to be valued trade pieces come midseason if they’re throwing really well.
This team has itself a legitimate pitching staff with a ton of potential. I don’t expect this team to make the playoffs this year, but I think people are going to be surprised at how effective their pitching staff is, especially if control issues are efficiently ironed out. Don’t sleep on this Baltimore Orioles pitching staff.