MLB Win Totals 2021: Predicting AL Central Over Unders
The American League Central steps into the batter’s box to face our 2021 win total evaluation. Using Vegas Insider’s MLB win totals, we’re going division by division, predicting the over or under for all 30 teams. With our AL East predictions published, it’s now time to transition to the Central.
We’ll start with the club fitted for the most wins:
Chicago White Sox
Over/Under 91.5 wins
Prediction: Over
The White Sox are soaring. After reaching the postseason for the first time since 2008, the expectation is for them to frequent October baseball for the next decade.
They employ many of the game’s great young talents, including Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, and Eloy Jimenez. First baseman Jose Abreu won the 2020 AL MVP, shortstop Tim Anderson earned a Silver Slugger award, and starting pitcher Lucas Giolito tallied Cy Young votes for a second straight year.
What did they have in store for the offseason? They added Lance Lynn, who led MLB in innings pitched last season, and Liam Hendricks, who MLB Network ranked as the top reliever in baseball.
Chicago will come at opponents from all angles in 2021, just as they did in 2020. Last year, the White Sox ranked in the top 10 in bullpen ERA and starters ERA. Their offense finished in the top-five in runs scored and home runs.
Lynn and Hendricks will further improve them from the mound, as will a healthy Michael Kopech. Offensively, the Sox gain an experienced leadoff man in Adam Eaton. They may also break camp with top prospect Andrew Vaughn as their primary DH.
There’s nary a weakness throughout the White Sox roster. Inexperience is all that could keep them from consistently dominating the upcoming campaign. If the veterans can conduct business as usual, the team will win over 91 games.
MLB Win Totals 2021: Minnesota Twins
Over/Under 88.5 wins
Prediction: Over
More than anything, the Twins want to correct their wrongs from last year’s two-and-out postseason appearance. To do so, they’re going to have to win a ton of regular-season games. Can they conquer more than 88?
Minnesota’s offense was a shadow of its 2019 version. They had the same hitters, but a handful of them performed well below standards. The Twins ranked 20th in MLB with a .315 OBP and 18th with a .242 batting average. They ranked 6th and 2nd in those statistics, respectively, the year prior.
Common sense indicates their lineup will return to glory in 2021. The Twins re-signed top slugger Nelson Cruz, and number-two prospect Alex Kirilloff should graduate to MLB permanence with a spot in the outfield. If Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver can have anything near bounce-back seasons, Minnesota’s offense should be one to fear.
We can’t commit an entire section to the Twins without mentioning their defensive wizards up the middle. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons has fielded four Gold Gloves over his nine-year career, and if it weren’t for injuries, center fielder Byron Buxton would have multiple of his own by now. If you want a glimpse into their upcoming on-field impact, consider their combined 244 DRS across 15 big league seasons.
Simmons and Buxton will make the guys on the mound better, which is crucial because Twins pitchers are the key to their 2021 campaign. Their bullpen should be outstanding, but their starters must reach a higher gear.
Kenta Maeda will likely come back to Earth as he’s stretched out to 25+ starts, which means Jose Berrios needs to step up. He’s been good each year of his career, but he has greatness in him. It’s time for the mega-talented right-hander to post Cy Young-worthy numbers.
Expect an enormous season from Berrios. Expect the Twins to win 90+ games.
MLB Win Totals 2021: Cleveland Indians
Over/Under 81.5 wins
Prediction: Under
As if the Indians can’t miss Francisco Lindor anymore than they already do; wait until they try to hit the baseball this season.
Cleveland hit the 19th-most home runs in MLB last year, and the guys that ranked third and fourth on the team in homers are now playing elsewhere. They expect free-agent signee Eddie Rosario to help Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes in the power department, though there isn’t much hope beyond those three hitters.
The only way to balance vastly inferior offense is with vastly superior pitching. Getting 30 starts from 2020 Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber is a start. Bieber will have to be nothing shy of spectacular once again in 2021 if he wants his Indians to return to the postseason.
The Indians’ remaining rotation candidates are talented; though, none of them have thrown more than 115 innings in a major league season. With durability being extra vital following a 60-game output, Cleveland may run into issues come July or August.
Their deep bullpen will come in handy on numerous occasions, but it can only bailout a low-scoring offense so many times. Take the under 81.5 wins for the Cleveland Indians. Call it a season if they decide to trade their new best player, Jose Ramirez, by the deadline.
MLB Win Totals 2021: Kansas City Royals
Over/Under 72.5 wins
Prediction: Over
The Royals are ready to turn things around. They hit triple digits in the loss column in 2018 and 2019, but they progressed last season, finishing eight games below .500. In 162-game terms, they were on pace to go 70-92.
They rode the momentum into the offseason, signing Mike Minor and Carlos Santana. They also acquired 26-year-old outfielder Andrew Benintendi from the Boston Red Sox.
The Royals had the 27th-best OBP (.309) in MLB last year and the 19th-best SLG (.402). Santana is one of the premier on-base players in the sport, and Benintendi was among the league leaders in doubles in 2018 and 2019.
Kansas City’s offense could have a big year if Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier can do their part in the middle of the lineup. Both had down seasons with the bat after producing stellar numbers the year prior. They’ll step up to the plate in countless run-scoring opportunities, with Whit Merrifield, Benintendi, and Santana often reaching base ahead of them.
Rotation depth is the key to the Royals’ 2021 season. They have a hidden gem in Brad Keller at the top; however, question marks follow him. Southpaws Danny Duffy and Mike Minor struggled a season ago, posting ERAs in the 5.00 range. The other two pinned starters, Brady Singer and Kris Bubic, are still getting their feet wet in the major leagues.
If two of those four can put together strong seasons, the Royals are deep enough on offense and in the bullpen to flirt with a .500 record. Take the over on 72.5 wins.
Detroit Tigers
Over/Under 68.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Comerica Park will be prospect row in 2021. Barring any setbacks, their top three pitching prospects should gain plenty of MLB experience as the season transpires. Tigers fans should also get an advanced look at the organization’s top three position prospects.
Each up and comer will have their moments, but growing pains will ensue. Casey Mize will look to settle in after allowing 13 walks and seven home runs in 28.1 innings with the Tigers in 2020.
Detroit starters posted an MLB-worst 6.37 ERA last year. Their bullpen wasn’t much better, ranking 25th in ERA. Defensively, they ended the season with -18 DRS; offensively, they finished 25th in MLB with a .700 OPS.
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The Tigers still have a ways to go before making opponents shake in their boots. 2021 is about trending in the right direction. Hopefully, they do, but they won’t get to 69 wins.