Boston Red Sox: Breaking down their 2021 pitching staff
The Boston Red Sox have been in freefall ever since their 2018 World Series title, but 2021 is going to be a big year for them in proving they can turn the ship around and get back to winning consistently.
They’ve already taken a big step in bringing back their 2018 World Series-winning manager in Alex Cora after his suspension tied to his involvement with the Red Sox/Astros sign stealing scandals expired. Now they need to make the comeback on the field. It won’t be easy as the AL East looks pretty good as of this moment, but the Boston Red Sox possess a lineup that can contend with just about any lineup in baseball.
Breaking down the Boston Red Sox pitching staff
The question as to which direction this Red Sox team goes in 2021 will be answered by way of how their pitching staff performs. It’s by far the Red Sox’s weakness, but can this pitching staff hold its own in 2021? Let’s take a look at the Boston staff.
I have found that in Boston’s case more than just about any other team in baseball’s, there is a divide between what the “data” says and what the “eye test” says, and we can see it with this Boston team just as much as, or even more than the other 29 teams in baseball.
Put simply, the eye test says this Boston staff is pretty loaded but the data suggest otherwise. And the guys on this Red Sox staff who stand out in data-driven measurements like Statcast are not the guys you expect.
Let’s start with the Boston rotation. Chris Sale is going to be back at some point this season after recovering from Tommy John surgery and he’s undoubtedly a big question mark heading into any sort of competitive environment- mostly because of the bad taste we got from him the last time we saw him pitch.
Our most recent memory of Sale is him struggling with his command, losing velocity and bite on his pitches, and obviously pitching through what turned out to be a serious arm injury.
Conventional wisdom says life after Tommy John can be beneficial to the pitcher it was performed on, but there will always be a question mark attached to that pitcher until they can fully prove they are over their troubles.
Sale is going to miss some time this year, which is going to put the Sox behind the eight ball from the get-go, but if he can come back, keep himself healthy, and get back to the Chris Sale we all know him to be, the Red Sox’ rotation and overall staff are both going to step up their games with him at the lead.
Then we have the rest of the Boston Red Sox rotation that I have mixed feelings about.
What’s interesting is the breakdown of guys who the eye test says are really good but also whom the data does not particularly favor, and the exact opposite of that where the eye test is murky but data says otherwise.
Statcast does not like Eduardo Rodriguez or Nathan Eovaldi yet we all know they’re very good pitchers when they’re on. E-Rod, in particular is a head-scratcher in that his pitches do not necessarily have anything special on them yet he still manages to find strikeouts and get swings and misses.
Rodriguez clocked into the 33rd percentile in fastball spin rate the last time we saw him pitch in 2019, yet he shot up in categories like exit velo (95th percentile), hard hit % (92nd), xwOBA and xERA (79th), xBA (81st), xSLG (78th), and barrel % (74th) from where he was most of his early career at about league average.
This is a guy who is clearly learning to pitch rather than simply throw since his ball is naturally not very prone to sophisticated movement or velocity, though we’ve seen E-Rod get his ball up to the high 90s at times.
Rodriguez is settling into being a stable left-hander who mixes his pitches very well and knows how to outsmart hitters. He doesn’t need high 90s velocity but can rather sit low to mid 90s. The question with E-Rod this year is how is he going to come back after missing 2020? Much like how Chris Sale has missed a chunk of time, Rodriguez will have something to prove having not seen him since two seasons ago.
And being that his “stuff” isn’t particularly fantastic, the long layoff could prove detrimental to his game if he cannot pick up where he left off in 2019.
Nathan Eovaldi is in a similar boat……..kind of. I don’t find him to be quite as gifted in the art of pitching as someone like Rodriguez, but he’s most definitely a better “thrower” with more weapons at his disposal.
The problem with Nate is just that, however. He’s a “thrower.” And yes, he sits in the high-90s to triple digits, but at the same time, he generates about the same 33rd percentile spin as E-Rod only without the luxury of being able to avoid damage by hitters.
Another interesting thing is that his control is all over the place in many regards. Take a look at his BB% from 2015-2020. In ’15 and ’16, he was at about league average and had his moments of struggling to hit the zone consistently. In ’18, he looked as though he completely fixed his issues. Then in ’19, he plummeted to the bottom ten percentile in baseball in BB%. And last year, he brought it back up to the 98th percentile.
What’s more consistent with him is his propensity to find the sweet spot on bats, meaning his barrel, exit velo, and expected averages tend to stay in the lower echelons of baseball. Nate is wild at times in and out of the zone, but no matter what, guys always have seemed to be able to lock onto him consistently through the years.
Boston’s top three pitchers all have major question marks. What’s going to make it interesting is the additions of Garrett Richards and Matt Andriese who should both work between the rotation and bullpen this year, especially once Sale comes back.
Andriese was actually not half bad last year for the Angels despite posting a 4.50 ERA. He hit the 60th percentile in fastball spin and the 73rd in curveball spin. He was also in the 60-70th percentile ranges in all of the “expected” categories such as xERA, xBA, and so on while also landing himself in the 64th percentile in K-rate. He’s not overpowering nor is his stuff top of the line, but he’s been managing to make quality pitches that put him in the best position to get outs.
Andriese is a really good long relief/spot starter guy and once he settles into that definitive role, I think he’s going to be a really nice addition to this Boston Red Sox staff.
Garrett Richards has the best spin rate on the team. He landed in the 98th percentile last year in fastball spin and the 100th in curveball spin. Plus, his velocity on his fastball ticked up from 94.1 in 2019 to 95.1 in 2020 while he was with the Padres working out of their pen for most of the year.
Like Andriese, I think Richards is going to find himself looking better in a relief role, though keep an eye on him to make some noise in the rotation as well with the comeback he’s seemingly made from all those years of injury.
The data says guys like E-Rod and Eovaldi are not as great as our eyes tell us- plus they both have health and control questions to them. Chris Sale is in a similar boat with everybody wondering how he’s going to look once he comes back. And then we have guys like Garrett Richards and Matt Andriese who don’t look half bad when we go into their breakdowns, but who we also know can be hit or miss.
After them will come Martin Perez and a bunch of younger guys to break in like Tanner Houck, Bryan Mata, Nick Pivetta, Connor Seabold, and Kyle Hart. The way it looks to me, I have a feeling this is not going to be a fantastic Red Sox season, so I believe we could be seeing a lot of starts out of these guys, especially in the second half of the season.
Keep an eye on the Boston Red Sox bullpen.
Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Adam Ottavino, and Josh Taylor jump off the page as the guys to watch in this Boston bullpen, but I have some contradictory feelings on the matter with some data to back it up.
Matt Barnes is the best arm they have in their pen, but he was very bad last year. His velocity dipped from 96.6 in 2019 to 95.5 last year and his spin rate was uncharacteristically lower. Not to mention he’s always been someone who struggled with his command as he’s been in the bottom ten percentile range in BB% in each of the last three seasons. I kind of get the feeling something is up with him and he may even be hurt.
Ryan Brasier is much like Nate Eovaldi in that we know he has a huge arm, but he doesn’t locate efficiently enough and his ball doesn’t spin a whole lot. That’s why he get blasted around on more than a few occasions. 43rd percentile in fastball spin a year ago. 52nd for xwOBA and xERA. 39th for xBA. 50th for xSLG. 48th for barrel % and all of these numbers have stayed in the same ranges ever since he broke in with the Boston Red Sox.
Adam Ottavino…….well……we all know Otto’s deal by now, especially Yankee fans. His velocity dipped once again last year and his command continued to be abysmal. Even when he was putting up those big seasons a couple years ago, he still found himself bottom ten in BB% rate in both 2018 and 2019 as well as 29th last season. His pitch is his slider and it’s been figured out.
Josh Taylor saw his fastball velocity dip last year from 94.8 in 2019 to 93.6 in 2020 and it most certainly showed in his posting of a 9.82 ERA in 8 games. He, like Barnes, must have something going on with him.
I actually think the strongest (and quietest) links in the Red Sox bullpen heading into this season are going to be Austin Brice, Phillips Valdez, Darwinzon Hernandez, and Colten Brewer.
Austin Brice is someone you might not expect. He doesn’t have terrific spin on his fastball, but he’s a bit of a side-arm deliverer and his velocity ticked up slightly last year with the Red Sox. Expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and barrel percentage were all very good last year for him, so even though he doesn’t jump off your screen, he’s making quality pitches, and if he can continue to do that, he’s going to stick in this Boston bullpen. His ERA was elevated last year, but keep an eye on Brice to keep making adjustments.
Phillips Valdez has the second-best spin rate on this team after Garrett Richards and we saw how he could do in a bridge role/long relief spot. He pitched to a 3.26 ERA in 24 games last year and posted some of the best barrel, hard hit, and exit velo numbers in baseball. Spin is what makes him, in particular, so effective.
Then we have Darwinzon Hernandez who has some great movement on his pitches- some of the best on the team- and his velocity seems to still be on the up-and-up despite the injuries he’s suffered. He needs to get better control of the strike zone, but Hernandez is someone who can really come on strong for the Red Sox this year out of the pen where I believe he’s better suited.
Finally, Colten Brewer is nasty as all hell, yet we can’t yet talk seriously about him because he still needs to show us something consistently. He has the third-best spin rate on the team, but his command is lacking. I’m gambling a bit here, but I think Brewer is going to come out super composed this season and bump up his numbers significantly. He has the stuff to do it- 77th percentile in fastball spin and 83rd for curveball spin. He has sneaky good velocity- 93.8 for his most-used cut fastball and 80.8 for his secondary curveball pitch. And I have a feeling we’re going to see some guys in this bullpen underperform opening the door for lesser known guys like him to step in and shine.
Previewing the 2021 Red Sox. dark. Next
If this Boston Red Sox staff can stay healthy and live up to its potential, perhaps this team can contend for the division.