MLB Win Totals 2021: Predicting AL West Over Unders
Vegas Insider posted MLB win totals for the 2021 season, which means it’s time to predict over/unders. We’re going division by division, pinning each team against their total and picking a side. Catch up on our AL East and AL Central editions, and read on to see how the AL West will unfold.
Oakland Athletics
Over/Under 87.5 wins
Prediction: Over
The Athletics have overachieved on the Vegas scale each of the past three seasons. It seems the oddsmakers have finally caught on, setting the bar at 87.5 wins for the A’s in 2021, the highest of any AL West club.
Will Oakland overachieve once again?
Their bullpen took an early hit this offseason when Liam Hendricks joined the Chicago White Sox, but they responded by signing veterans Trevor Rosenthal and Sergio Romo. They also wisely re-signed dependable right-hander Yusmeiro Petit. With Lou Trivino and Jake Diekman still in the mix, Oakland will be smooth sailing in the ladder half of games.
Offensively, they replaced shortstop Marcus Semien with Elvis Andrus and sent Khris Davis to Texas to get Andrus. The career Texas Ranger won’t match Semien’s power numbers, but he’ll hit good pitching and be a tough out wherever he bats in the lineup.
The Athletics will rely on their mainstays to carry the torch in 2021. Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, and Matt Olson are equally talented on offense and defense. Laureano’s strength and athleticism can take over a game, and the pair of Matts wreak havoc at the heart of the batting order – albeit with different styles. Oakland’s offense will go as those three go, so they better put forth stellar campaigns.
If the A’s win back-to-back division titles, it will be because Jesus Luzardo, Sean Manaea, and Frankie Montas held their own within the rotation. Each starter is far too talented to repeat their underwhelming 2020 season.
The Moneyballers were on pace to win 97 games last year, despite their rotation ranking in the middle of the AL in ERA and WHIP. Starting pitching will catch up to their other formidable facets in 2021, and the Athletics will ultimately win over 87 games.
MLB Win Totals 2021: Houston Astros
Over/Under 86.5 wins
Prediction: Under
The Astros’ renowned infield remains intact, but George Springer is gone, and so is closer Roberto Osuna. They’ll also be without starters Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, who will miss the 2021 season due to a fractured finger suffered in his first spring training outing.
Even without Springer, Houston should move forward with the top offense in the division. They have a top-three consistent hitter in MLB in Michael Brantley, plus the trio of Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa presents many challenges for opposing pitchers.
Additionally, big years from Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker should translate to the Astros having a top-four scoring offense in the AL.
Pitching makes their outlook a bit hazy, however. After Mr. Reliable Zack Greinke, the Astros rotation aligns with three pitchers that, combined, threw as many innings the last two years as Greinke did in 2019 alone. It’s hard to imagine Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy, or Cristian Javier reaching 150 innings in 2021.
Houston signed nine-year veteran Jake Odorizzi last week in response to the disappointing Framber Valdez news. Odorizzi experienced a career-year in 2019, owning a 3.51 ERA and averaging 10.1 K/9. Though, his career as a whole dictates he’s a league-average pitcher.
Talent is not an issue for their rotation, but stamina is. If history is a fair benchmark, Astros starters will rarely pitch deep into games, which will lead to their bullpen getting overworked.
At first glance, 86.5 wins seems low for the ‘Stros in 2021. But they’re less experienced than they’ve been in recent dominant years, and in a season where pitching depth will be crucial, they don’t have it. Take the under.
MLB Win Totals 2021: Los Angeles Angels
Over/Under 83.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Since the Angels last made the playoffs in 2014, their season-by-season wins are: 85, 74, 80, 80, 72, and 26 (162-game pace of 70 wins). If they hit over 83.5 wins this year, they will have completed their most successful campaign since 2015.
Their roster didn’t change much this offseason; they replaced Andrelton Simmons with Jose Iglesias at shortstop and added pitchers Jose Quintana, Alex Cobb, and Raisel Iglesias. Considering the additions to their starting rotation, they still lack a stonecold ace.
The Angels can match up with nearly any club on offense, but if they continue to “hope for the best” with their starting pitchers, they’re not going to make much progress.
They need Dylan Bundy to pick up from where he left off in 2020. Andrew Heaney and Quintana must contribute above-average seasons. And finally – FINALLY – Shohei Ohtani must stay healthy and dispose of hitters like they’re banana peels, whether doing so as a starter or reliever.
If Los Angeles starters can hold down the fort, and Ohtani can step in as a dominant, high-leverage reliever, the Angels can make a run at the AL West. Those are some serious “ifs,” though.
Call me an optimist, but I think the Halos win more than 83 ballgames this regular season. They may not win many more, though that’s irrelevant to their Vegas Insider total.
MLB Win Totals 2021: Seattle Mariners
Over/Under 72.5 wins
Prediction: Over
The Mariners enter the season believing they have a chance at a .500 record and potentially a wildcard berth.
Robust talents such as Kyle Lewis and Jared Kelenic are pumping blood to the heart of the organization. The M’s brought back James Paxton, hoping he and Marco Gonzalez can form the best one-two punch in the AL West. They revamped their bullpen, and many of their top prospects are knocking at the big league door.
With youth and inexperience dominating the Seattle roster, can the team reach 73 victories in 2021?
Youth and inexperience are hard to evaluate, meaning the 72.5 win total could be opportunistic to gamblers. The Mariners were on pace to win 73 games last season, so if you believe in year-to-year progress, they should exceed Vegas’ number this season.
Statistically, Seattle ranked dead-last in the AL with a 5.92 team ERA in 2020. Offensively, they finished 13th in batting average and 14th in OPS. Despite their terrible all-around numbers, they stood third in the division at the end of the year.
Improved defense is nearing, with Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, and Jake Fraley fighting to break camp with the Mariners. Kelenic may miss the remainder of Spring Training due to an adductor strain in his left knee, though, barring a significant setback, it shouldn’t be long until he becomes a fixation in Seattle lineups.
When ready, Kelenic should bring plenty of pop to an offense that desperately needs it. They should also get a power boost from Mitch Haniger, who missed 2020 because of a series of injuries.
The Mariners are still a work in progress, but they’ll be good enough this season to win 73 games.
MLB Win Totals 2021: Texas Rangers
Over/Under 66.5 wins
Prediction: Under
The Rangers are bracing themselves for the first year of a rebuild. They hit rock-bottom in the short season, finishing with the second-worst record in MLB. Joey Gallo lost his way at the plate, prized acquisition Corey Kluber pitched one inning, and Mike Minor‘s ERA ballooned after an outstanding 2019 campaign.
Kluber and Minor are gone, as is Lancy Lynn. Texas’ rotation options include two veterans, three rookies, and two young southpaws that have yet to eclipse 100 big league innings.
There will be plenty of learning experiences to go around. Starters will be acclimating to the bright lights while Mike Trout and Jose Altuve try to destroy any confidence they’ve built up. And they won’t get much help from the Rangers offense, which has a ruffled outlook as well.
Gallo is off to a hot start this spring. If he can relax and let the game come to him, he should return to All-Star form. They have potential elsewhere, with David Dahl healthy and Isiah Kiner-Falefa coming off a strong offensive season. Scanning the Texas lineup, however, does not prompt much certainty.
With Jonathan Hernandez expected to miss significant time out of the bullpen, each remaining reliever assumes more responsibility. If Jose Leclerc struggles, the Rangers relief crew will be in free fall.
Five breakout players for the 2021 season. dark. Next
Texas won’t out-talent many opponents in 2021. Given their goal to work in prospects throughout the year and the possibility of them dealing Gallo by the trade deadline, betting the under 66.5 wins is the safe play.