New York Mets looking to seize control of NL East

The New York Mets had a busy offseason. Will it be enough for them to seize control of the NL East in 2021?

A debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 New York Mets

Opti-me: Putting a smile on the face of any Mets fan is easy. All you have to do is dial back to Jan. 7. That’s the day we landed Francisco Lindor. That’s probably the single biggest move made by any team all winter, and it automatically projects us into an NL East contender.

What are the two most important steps to building a contender? Answer, a dominant starter and a dominant middle defense. We’ve always had Jacob DeGrom, now we’ve added Lindor, who’s averaged seven Defensive Runs Saved his whole career. That .285 average doesn’t hurt either.

And just to gild the lily, we got Carlos Carrasco to back up DeGrom. This is a guy who’s pretty consistently stayed in the 3.40 ERA range, and who’s also stayed healthy.

Pessi-me: You should be happy to get Lindor. No question that trade’s an obvious winner for you. What else did the Mets do?

They failed to add George Springer or any other center fielder more highly thought of than Albert Almora.

They failed to get Trevor Bauer, and instead settled for Taijuan Walker. Marcus Stroman’s back after opting out last season for Covid, but what of it? Stroman hasn’t had a winning season since 2017.  Doesn’t that leave you leaning pretty hard on David Peterson?

Opti-me: Peterson’s an easy lean. He was 6-2 with a 3.44 in nine starts and never looked anything but healthy. Walker may not be Bauer, but he came back nicely last season from that ulnar collateral ligament problem that set him back in 2018 and 2019. Again, 11 starts, solid ERA, no arm issues.

As for Stroman, that 10-13 record of his for 2019 is about as deceptive as they come. He was 6-11 with Toronto despite a 2.96 ERA…that’s the very definition of lack of run support. Those 11 losses? He allowed a total of 33 runs, earned and unearned. I’ll take that right now.

We’ve also got Edwin Diaz back to close.

Pessi-me: You have Diaz back to close…is that a plus or a minus? You got a 1.75 ERA in 2020, but that was for 26 innings. Go back one season and you’re staring at a 5.60 ERA. But of course, that’s typical for relievers, good, then bad, then who knows?

You may like Lindor’s defense, but I know you didn’t solve your outfield defense. You couldn’t get Springer, so you’re starting the season with Dom Smith in left, Brandon Nimmo in center, and Michael Conforto in right. In 2020 they combined for minus 56 Defensive Runs Saved in those outfield positions, and considering the Mets only played 60 games that’s working overtime at ineptitude.

Smith was minus-40 in left field. I know you like him because he hit .315 with power, but somebody seriously needs to buy that guy a glove.

But I shouldn’t dog Smith; it’s not like he’s your only lousy fielder. J.D. Davis was minus-30 at third base last year, Jeff McNeil was minus-35 at second and Pete Alonso was minus-15 at first. Maybe you landed Lindor to give fielding lessons…that could help.

Opti-me: Granted, we’d like the fielding to be better. But the game’s about hitting, too. That’s what Smith does, that’s what Alonso does, that’s what Lindor does, that’s what McNeil does, and so on and so on.

Do you happen to recall which team led the NL in batting average last season? The Mets did, at .272. They were third in slugging, and all we lost out of that lineup was Robinson Cano to a PED test. But that’s OK because it opens up a full-time spot for McNeil or Smith.

What we really need, obviously, is for Alonso to deliver in the middle of the order as he did as a rookie in 2019. It doesn’t have to be 53 home runs, but a solid 35 homers and 100 RBIs isn’t asking too much. He can do that; even when he didn’t hit for average last season he still provided power, a .817 OPS.

Speaking of offense, we’re also better at the one position you haven’t mentioned, backstop. James McCann is not only a serious defensive upgrade from Wilson Ramos, while he was with the White Sox he developed into a much better stick.

Pessi-me: One consistent thing about New York Mets fans. Things are always just about to get better. The deal for Diaz and Cano a couple of years ago was supposed to put you over the top. You finished third. Last year Porcello and Wacha were supposed to fix the rotation depth issue. You tied for last.

Now we’re all supposed to believe that Lindor and Carrasco are the answer. The problem is the Braves are still good, the Marlins are improving, and there’s no reason to think the Phillies or Nats are getting any worse. Where does that leave the Mets?

I’ll tell you where. It leaves the Mets in a big huge morass of a battle for second or third place. At best you’re on the fringes of a wild card race. And I personally wouldn’t count on that.

Opti-me: Your dour assessment notwithstanding, this is a much, much improved team. Lindor and McCann tighten the defense, Stroman, Carrasco, and Walker improve the pitching depth, and the bats were good enough to begin with.

Put it all together and the New York Mets will make a genuine run at 95 wins and the division title this season. No disrespect to the Braves, who are very good. But they’re not superior to this refashioned team.