The Chicago Cubs may face an uncertain future, but they do have a solid team and a weaker division as they look to make one last stand.
Spring training is a time when a fan’s mood can swing back and forth between boundless hope and deep despair. For that reason, the following is a debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Chicago Cubs.
Opti-me: Cubs fans everywhere couldn’t be happier that the entire rest of the baseball world has spent the off-season predicting the imminent demise of the franchise. Whether it was Theo leaving, the trade of Darvish, another Bryant rumor, Jon Lester leaving, Schwarber being released, a Baez rumor, you name it, the word was if the Cubs weren’t in full teardown mode, they should be.
And after all that, we wind up with the best team in the NL Central. So blow smoke, Cubs haters, because we’re headed for the post-season again.
How? Because Jed Hoyer did a great job. Darvish for Davies saved us $13 million this year alone, we got a pitcher who’s six years younger and who had a 2.73 ERA in 2020 pitching 69 innings, almost as many as Darvish.
Joc Pederson is tearing up spring camp replacing Schwarber, he’s as good a hitter as Schwarber, a better fielder, and we signed him for $8 million less than re-signing Schwarber would have cost.
Pessi-me: You’ll save even more when you trade Bryant away in a couple of months.
Seriously, what’s the fascination with Zach Davies? He’s the only guy in the league who throws softer than Kyle Hendricks. With those two, an older Jake Arrieta, Alec Mills and whoever else you scrape together to pitch, the Cubs may have the worst average velocity of any rotation in decades.
Arrieta’s down under 92 now, and Mills, Hendricks and Davies were all below 90 last year. So basically batting against the Cubs is going to be like hitting in a slow-pitch league.
I know there’s such a thing as keeping hitters off balance, but that would require a hard thrower or two for contrast. Somebody like, oh, I don’t know… Yu Darvish.
Opti-me: If there’s one thing the Chicago Cubs know, it’s run prevention. Cubs pitchers were third best in the NL in opponent’s runs per game last year only the Cardinals and Dodgers did better. Our problem was hitting. And we’ve fixed it.
Look out for Pederson in 2021. This is a guy who’s always just needed the full chance the Dodgers never gave him. He’s averaging a home run every 3.4 plate appearances so far this spring. That’s pretty good, isn’t it? Yeah, I know, it’s spring. But Pederson is legit. He’s averaged 25 home runs a year, and that’s at just the 450 plate appearances the Dodgers allowed him. Give him a full 600 and he’s a 35-home run guy.
And while you’re looking out for people, look out for Nico Hoerner. The Cubs only kept him around last season because there was no place to send him. He’ll probably get the second base job full time.
Hoerner may not be a power guy, but he’s going to be a contact guy. His career strikeout rate is only 17 percent, mighty low for a 24-year-old. Will he be a .300 hitter? I wouldn’t rule it out; he’s batting .500 so far in Arizona.
Pessi-me: Before I’d count too much on Hoerner, you might let him win the job. The Cubs can’t be too sure of his offense or they wouldn’t have signed Idelmaro Vargas as backup insurance.
One thing is for sure. Some of your guys better hit because you’re going nowhere with last season’s offense. Just to refresh your memory: Bryant, .206 with a 73 OPS+; Rizzo .222, Baez .203 with a 59 OPS+. You paid Javy Baez $10 million last year to generate the second worst OPS+ of everybody in MLB who hit often enough to qualify for the batting title.
I also want to say a few words about your whiff rate. Baez had 75 strikeouts, which was the third most in the National League. As a team you K’d 568 times, more than any National League team except the Brewers and Braves.
Your run production was bad and then it got worse. There was a three-week stretch in September – that’s three-eighths of the season — when you averaged three runs per game. You went into post-season against the Marlins and scored exactly one run, and that was on a home run.
Opti-me: You’re right about the strikeout rate. That’s why David Ross has made a major priority this spring about improving bat-on-ball contact. That’s why Schwarber is gone. That’s why Hoerner is likely to start at second.
What we really need is health, particularly from Bryant. Everybody’s down on his average, which obviously has fallen. But he only played half the season last year and even that was an injured half. The last three seasons the guy’s been healthy he’s batted .290 with in the range of 30 home runs.
Pessi-me: If that soft-tossing staff of yours doesn’t deliver quickly, Bryant’s numbers won’t matter because you’ll have traded him by the All Star break. And that’s what’ll happen. Pitching is a velocity game, and you don’t have any. You might be able to hold off the Reds and Pirates for third place in the division, although I wouldn’t bet on it.
But staying with the Cardinals and Brewers? Not gonna happen. Not after Hoyer gets through stripping down this free agent-bound roster.
Opti-me: Hendricks and Davies are both pitching Houdinis, Mills, in case you forgot, threw a no-hitter last year, and Arrieta is a competent fourth starter. Contreras, Bryant, Baez, Heyward and Rizzo are a good enough core to have already won a World Series, Happ has blossomed into a legit leadoff man, and Pederson and Hoerner will be strong additions.
In short, the Chicago Cubs will repeat as NL Central champions in 2021 because they continue to be the division’s best team.