The San Diego Padres were one of the winners of the offseason, but that still needs to translate into regular season victories.
Spring training is a time when a fan’s mood can swing back and forth between boundless hope and deep despair. The following is a debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 San Diego Padres.
Opti-me: We’ve added two of the best pitchers to a team that went 37-23 so I presume you’re not expecting any false modesty. You won’t get it, either. This is a division champion, a National League champion, and in all likelihood a World Series champion team.
Let’s start with the rotation because that’s where the action was this winter. We added Yu Darvish, who was fourth in ERA at 2.01, and Blake Snell, 3.24. Darvish has a 96 mph fastball and Snell goes 95. They join a staff that ranked third in baseball in ERA in 2020 and fourth in runs allowed per game.
We’re also returning our two best starters from last season, Dinelson Lamet, who throws 97, and Chris Paddack, 94. Lamet had another ERA close to 2.00 in 2020.
Put it together and the San Diego Padres are likely to have the best rotation in the majors.
Pessi-me: Before you get too worked up about Lamet, you might want to actually get him onto the field. The guy missed the post-season last year with an elbow problem, and the most he’s done so far this spring is throw simulated games. We’re halfway through spring training and Jayce Tingler hasn’t even set a timeline for getting him some work against real hitters.
Darvish and Snell look like great pickups…if you like six-inning pitchers. Since the start of the 2019 season, Darvish has pitched into the eighth inning exactly twice, and he’s averaged less than six per start.
As for Snell, we know what Kevin Cash thinks about his durability. But for the record, he’s averaged four and two thirds innings per start, and he’s only made it into the seventh twice.
So the Padres will be leaning especially hard on their bullpen. And that could be problematic because you can’t even figure out who your closer is, Pomeranz or Pagan or whoever’s behind Door No. 3.
Opti-me: That just gives Jayce Tingler options. That’s a plus. I’ll tell you another plus: locking up Fernando Tatis Jr. through 2034. The kid will emerge this season as the best shortstop in baseball, and probably the best player. Put him alongside Manny Machado and you have the game’s best left side of the infield.
Hosmer’s back at first, Myers is back in the outfield, and Trent Grisham was a revelation in center field in 2020. Do you know how many Padre regulars had an OPS above .850 last season? Four: Hosmer, Tatis, Machado, and Myers.
No surprise, then, that the Padres also were third in baseball in runs scored per game and fourth in OPS. In short, run production will not be a problem in 2021.
Pessi-me: There are plenty of potential holes in several of your offensive arguments. Start with Myers, who hit way over his career record last year. I understand why you love Tatis, but let’s be honest: He went in the tank last September. A .208 average after Sept. 1, just 12 RBIs, and a .714 OPS. He swings right-handed, but he hit .242 against left-handers in 2020. What’s up with that?
Then there’s Tommy Pham, your left fielder. He’s going to be 33 and his average and OPS both took big dives the last two seasons; what makes you think that’s a freak and not a trend?
Opti-me: If that happens, A.J. Preller adapts, which obviously is his strength. I’m not so blindly optimistic as to assume everything goes perfectly.
But Preller and Peter Seidler, the owner, haven’t been afraid to spend money to make changes. They showed that by jacking the payroll a full $100 million this year. Whatever this team needs in mid-season to hold off the Dodgers—yes, I said hold off the Dodgers – they’ll go out and get it.
Pessi-me: The notion that you’re somehow magically better now than the Dodgers just doesn’t add up. Yeah, you got Darvish…but the price was your own No. 1 starter, Zach Davies. Snell only replaces Mike Clevinger, who’s out for the year.
As for the everyday lineup, your only change was turning catcher over to Austin Nola and Victor Caratini. You can make the case that combo is an upgrade from Austin Hedges, but if so it’s the only one.
Beyond that, you need Pham to resurrect his 2018 performance, and you need to figure out how to make up six games on the Dodgers, which is how far behind you were in 2020.
I don’t see it, and I don’t expect Padres fans to see it either. You’ve set expectations extremely high, and they won’t be met. Playoffs? Possibly. A division title and beyond? Not a chance?
Opti-me: Tatis will be the league MVP. Darvish may win the Cy Young, which he nearly won in 2020. Myers, Hosmer, and Machado are all good for 30 homers, Snell – who will be given leash by Tingler to go deeper into games — will win 15 minimum.
The San Diego Padres have too many weapons for the Dodgers to keep up with. This team will ride the momentum it got this winter all the way to the World Series.