Toronto Blue Jays hoping to keep up in AL East

The Toronto Blue Jays returned to the postseason in 2020. Can they take the next step this season?

Spring training is a time when a fan’s mood can swing back and forth between boundless hope and deep despair. The following is a debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Toronto Blue Jays.

Opti-me: You’ll be hard-pressed to find a better one-to-nine young lineup than the one the Jays will put on the field this season. In Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, we’ve got two established young stars under 25, and the whole lineup averages 27, which is right in its prime.

Cavan Biggio and Rowdy Tellez made big strides in 2020, and they’re both ready for stardom. The only thing that lineup needed was some quality experienced leadership. Bingo, the Jays signed Marcus Semien and George Springer, both of them perfect additions for that role.

In short, what GM Ross Atkins has put together in that every-day lineup is nothing short of an offensive symphony.

Pessi-me: Without Guerrero, your whole lineup is over-rated, so let’s begin with him. He hit .262 in his second season, which was basically one percentage point of batting average for each pound of Junior. Now you’re geeked up because he’s reported to camp lighter and, you presume, better.

Time will tell, For now, all we know is he hasn’t lived up the hype yet, assuming he ever does.

As for Semien, he had a bad 2020 with Oakland, he’s turning 30 this season, and your presumption seems to be he’ll do better in 2021 because that’s what the Jays need him to do. But it’s also possible – more likely I’d say — that he peaked two years ago and you bought him on the downturn.

But I don’t really want to debate the offense, which I’ll concede ought to be pretty good. You were third in the AL in runs per game last year, and fourth in average. I want to talk about the pitching.

Opti-me: Glad to. That’s where Atkins did some of his best work. If ever a player needed a change of scenery, it was Steven Matz, who was never given a fair shot either by the Mets or their fans. The guy’s got a 95 mph sinker.

The Toronto Blue Jays are also due for a full season out of Nate Pearson and his 96 mph four-seamer. But the thing I really like about Pearson is his control; a 16 percent walk rate last season will get your attention.

Add those two to the holdovers — Hyun-Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, and Tanner Roark – and pitching will be a team strength in 2021.

Pessi-me: Counting on Pearson, who so far is the Wedgewood China of pitchers, is more than a bit optimistic. Talk about fragile; he goes down last season with a flexor strain and no sooner does he report this spring than he’s out with a groin strain. Does this guy know how to do warmup stretches?

And counting on Matz is what’s kept the Mets in trouble for five seasons now. You can tout his fastball all you want, but his baseball card says he’s a 30-year-old with a career record 10 games under .500 who went winless last year with a 9.68 ERA. Of course, you got him for nothing; if you didn’t take him the Mets’ next call was to Waste Management.

Ryu has been good, but he’s never been a workhorse and he’s turning 34 so good luck. Roark’s OK if you like a 6.80 ERA; my hunch is you dump him for Ross Stripling by May 1.

Opti-me: Stripling got kicked around a couple of outings last September, but that was an adjustment period to a new league. In 2021 he’ll revert to his previous form with ERAs in the mid-threes. At the rate the Jays score runs, that’s more than good enough.

And don’t forget Kirby Yates, the first real closer we’ve had in a few years. That’s another need Atkins patched over the winter. Granted, Yates had a bad 2020, but that was due to bone chips, which is an easy fix for a good surgeon.

In 2021, you can expect to see the real Yates, which would be 40 or so saves and an ERA in the low ones.

Pessi-me: While we’re on the subject of seeing, where do you suggest I go to see Yates, Guerrero, Springer, or any of these guys. Not to Toronto, which is still putting up major obstacles to cross-border travel. So where are we talking about playing…Dunedin? Buffalo? Both? Someplace else? My backyard’s available.

And don’t you think that nomadic life is likely to be more than a bit unsettling for a team that’ll need all its focus to keep up with the Yankees and Rays?

Let me end on a charitable note. I do think the Jays are making progress. You were above .500 in 2020, you made the post-season for the first time in five years, and while you’ll probably live to regret the additions of both Semien and Matz I like the Springer pickup a lot.

But they’re not taking 14 teams to the playoffs in 2021; you have to get in on merit. The Jays aren’t better than third in the AL East, and if Guerrero doesn’t come up big you may have a hard time holding off Boston to do that well.

The short of it is you’ve made minor progress at best this off-season. Your pitching isn’t good enough, and it will keep you out of serious contention.

Opti-me: Youth will be served. Nate Pearson will be a strong Rookie of the Year candidate, and somebody – maybe Guerrero, maybe Bichette – will compete for MVP.

As for the supposedly aging Hyun-Jin Ryu, he wins Game 1 of the 2021 World Series…maybe even in Toronto. Mark it down.