Philadelphia Phillies hope they have done enough to contend

The Philadelphia Phillies made numerous moves in the offseason, but were any of them enough to contend in 2021?

Spring training is a time when a fan’s mood can swing back and forth between boundless hope and deep despair. The following is a debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Philadelphia Phillies.

Opti-me: Let me give you the best reason right out of the gate why the Phillies will win the NL East this season. Because we’re due.

The last Phillies team to make the playoffs was in 2011. Since then we’ve raised payroll 13 percent, re-signed Ryan Howard for $125 million, signed Cole Hamels for $144 million, signed Jake Arrieta for $75 million, signed Bryce Harper for $330 million, signed Andrew McCutchen for $50 million, and signed Jean Segura for $70 million.

Now, this winter we re-signed J.T. Realmuto for $115 million. At some point out number has to come up. This will be the year.

Take Harper. Two years into the 13-year deal he’s been pretty good, actually. He had a .962 OPS last year, he’s had 35 and 13-homer seasons and driven in 157 runs. But we do need him to be the 2015 Bryce Harper, the MVP Bryce Harper. If he delivers an MVP-type season, we’ll win the division.

Pessi-me: That won’t happen until your opponents begin to respect the cover your lineup gives Harper. They haven’t the first two seasons you’ve had him, and you didn’t give them any reason over the winter to change their approach.

Harper led the National League in one offensive category in 2020…walks. That’s because you backed him up with Realmuto or Alec Bohm. I’m guessing Bohm’s your guy to back him up this season.

That may work if Bohm hits .338 again and drives in runs like he did the last month of 2020. But Phillies sluggers have an interesting habit of regressing. I recall a few years back when Rhys Hoskins and Nick Williams were hot. Then pitchers figured them out. Hoskins became a .240 hitter with no plate discipline, and last I heard of Williams he was hoping to catch on with the White Sox.

Opti-me: One look at Bohm and anybody will dismiss your concerns about regression. He’s 6-5, 220 with the smoothest swing this side of Harper. He played 44 games last year and never went more than two of them in a row without at least one hit.

He’s a right-hander who hit .358 against right-handed pitching, .326 on the road and .305 with two out. In short, you can look through his record until your eyes blur, you won’t find a hole in it.

Pessi-me: Your second problem is you’re trying to win with guys who are probably over the hill. For your sake, I hope Harper doesn’t fit that description, but I’d bet that Gregorius, McCutchen, Segura, and possibly Realmuto do. That’s half your starting eight.

Gregorius is 31 and his best season was 2018. Segura’s also 31 and he peaked in 2016. McCutchen was a legit star a half dozen years ago; now he’s a placeholder.

Of course, your real reason to worry is that pitching staff. Ugh. You were 14th in the NL in both runs allowed per game and ERA last season. Your upgrade? You added Matt Moore, Chase Anderson, and Archie Bradley.

Anderson had a 7.22 ERA last season when the Jays let him near the mound, which wasn’t often.  Moore has barely lifted a ball since 2018, when he was bad. As for Bradley, well, he’s a reliever so who really knows?

Opti-me: If the Phillies needed anything in 2020, it was bullpen help. The 7.06 pen ERA ought to make that clear. Bradley can be that guy. With him as the closer, the Phillies can let Hector Neris slide down into a setup role, where he’ll be more comfortable.

Aside from that, the pen is a total makeover. Other than Neris, the four guys with the most relief innings worked last year are all gone, so that’s a reason for optimism right there.

The spring numbers for Moore and Anderson have actually been pretty good. Check that, they’ve been superb. Anderson’s worked seven innings with no earned runs and a 1.00 WHIP. It’s basically the same story with Moore: three games, a 1.13 ERA, a 0.50 WHIP.

Obviously, you can’t form long-term judgments on two weeks of spring games. But if that pattern comes anywhere close to holding, the Phillies will have one of the league’s best rotations.

Pessi-me: Or Moore and Anderson could revert to established form. You’ve already proven that your third starter, Zach Eflin, is a sub-.500 pitcher. When, not if, you’re down to Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and prayers, there’ll be nothing for Bradley to save and Harper will have to bat .400 or slug .600 to prop up the carcass of a team he’s playing on.

As usual, that will leave the Phillies below .500, out of the playoffs, and fighting to hold off the Marlins for last place.

Opti-me:  The following Phillies will be 2021 All Stars: Harper, Realmuto, Bohm, Nola, and probably Hoskins. Between them, Harper, Bohm, Realmuto, and Hoskins will hit 150 home runs and drive in 350 runs. With that kind of production, the pitching doesn’t have to be great. It will be good enough. The Phillies battle the Braves to the finish, sweep them in a season-ending series in Atlanta, and walk away with their first NL East pennant in a decade.