The Pittsburgh Pirates are not going to contend for the postseason in 2021. What can their fans look forward to this year?
Spring training is a time when a fan’s mood can swing back and forth between boundless hope and deep despair. The following is a debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Pittsburgh Pirates.
Opti-me: Pirates fans aren’t hoping for much in 2021. We’re realistic enough to know a bad team when we see one. All we really need to see is progress. Something other than last place in the NL Central would be nice.
Progress begins at third base with Ke’Bryan Hayes. We always knew from his minor league numbers that he’d field. What we didn’t understand is how he could hit. We’re not carried away enough to expect .376 with power over a full season, but if he can hang around .300 with 20 home runs we have a long-term building block on par with Fernando Tatis Jr.
Next, we need Bryan Reynolds to be himself. This is a guy who batted .300 at every level, including the majors, until 2020, when he suddenly tanked. We’re counting on that being a freak byproduct of the shorter 2020 season. Assuming it is, Reynolds teams with Hayes to form a mid-order duo you can fashion an offense around.
Pessi-me: Picking on the Pirates is like kicking the family pet – everybody knows he’s not going to hurt anybody, so you just look like a bully. Therefore I’ll be gentle. You’re wise to keep your sights low; that way the fall won’t be very hard.
I’ll even concede your arguments about Hayes and Reynolds. Then what? With the Pirates, the first matter to discuss is the pitching, as in “there isn’t any.’ It wasn’t very good in 2020, and you traded away your one reliable arm, Joe Musgrove, for prospects.
You also traded Jameson Taillon, returning from arm surgery. What’s left? Well, your ace is Mitch Keller, who pitched pretty well last year but only made five starts. Beyond that it’s Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault, who has more tattoos than career wins.
Opti-me: Tyler Anderson’s a competent pickup, Kuhl’s still young enough to improve, and Keller lost a full month to an arm injury last year, but once he came back he was darned good. He only gave up one earned run in his last two starts coming off that injury, and should have won both games except he got zero offensive support.
Back to my growth message. Jacob Stallings has now demonstrated that he can be a productive catcher. Kevin Newman has potential in the middle infield; we need to see growth at the plate. The same is true of Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco.
Polanco in particular needs to become the 20-homer guy he was a couple of years ago.
These guys are capable, but 2020 is a make or break season for them. Ben Cherington, the teams general manager, demonstrated this winter that he’s willing to break up the existing cast. The trades of Josh Bell and Musgrove for prospects prove that.
Pessi-me: That’s a reverse Hobson’s choice for Cherington. Stallings, Newman, and Frazier have no trade value unless they start hitting, and if they do you may not want to move a valuable asset.
As for Polanco, you missed that boat two seasons ago. At this stage, he’s a confirmed .240 hitter with no power and a high strikeout rate of…37 percent since the end of 2018.
Your one hope is to dip back into that farm system and see whether it will yield another Ke’Bryan Hayes or two. Maybe you can bring Nick Gonzalez along to play second or Hudson Head to play center a year earlier than projected. They both look like maybe they can hit eventually, and Head would give you some immediate return on the Musgrove trade. But asking anything much out of a 19-year-old is a tough bet.
Opti-me: Their futures are the reasons why all Pirates fans really expect this season is to see the eventual core of a good team begin to mature. That’s Hayes, Reynolds, and somebody else, possibly even Colin Moran, although given his last few seasons that seems like a long shot.
We’ve got an interesting spring battle in center field between a couple of prospects, Anthony Alford and Cole Tucker. One of them is going to get the chance this April to be part of that cast, and we need whoever that is to seize the opportunity.
Pessi-me: The reality, which you seem to be comfortable with, is that it will be an upset if the Pirates are anything other than the worst team in the National League this season. As for finishing last in the Central, that’s pretty much a given. You’ve seen two straight seasons of decline in winning percentage.
The 2020 results were so bad – 19-41, a .317 percentage – that it would be almost impossible to get worse again. But meaningful improvement? That’s hard to envision.
Opti-me: That’s the beauty of being a Pirates fan in 2021; with the worst record in baseball in 2020, there literally is no place to go but up.
So let’s set small, achievable goals. I’ll give you three:
1. Hayes makes the All-Star team and establishes himself as the game’s best third baseman. Reynolds returns to the .300 hitter he’s always been. Those are do-able.
2. The Pirates win 45 percent of their games. That’s 73 wins. It’s a big step up from 19-41, but considering how many players had off seasons in 2020, it’s imaginable.
3. The team escapes last place in the Central. They may require some cooperation from the Reds, but if Pittsburgh can meet goal No. 2, it’s also do-able.