How Jake Arrieta Could Have Changed Miami Marlins History
Had Jake Arrieta been sent to the Miami Marlins in 2014, it likely would have had far reaching consequences for two franchises.
What if the Chicago Cubs had traded Jake Arrieta to the Miami Marlins?
That’s the question The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal left fans of two franchises pondering this weekend when he broke the news that such a move was on the table back in July of 2014.
For Cubs fans, the consequences seem obvious: do the Cubs end their championship drought without the defending Cy Young winner in the fold? As excellent as that 2016 rotation was, that feels like a no. Particularly when you consider some of the other moves Chicago made based on Arrieta’s 2014 and 2015 campaigns. No, what was the longest championship drought in sports is likely still ongoing had Arrieta been dealt for one more boatload of prospects in a bid to be serious contenders for the next few seasons.
For Miami Marlins fans though, the possibilities seem endless for what direction the franchise might have gone had the franchise pulled the trigger on that one.
At a minimum, a winning season was lost. Which, on the surface, seems relatively inconsequential. But for a franchise that had gone so long without a winning record? Even the slightest change to the win-loss column could have been game changing, stretching far beyond a singular season.
The headliner going back to Chicago in the deal? One J.T. Realmuto.
That the prospect was Realmuto is a significant wild card in this round of what-ifs. On the Cubs side, having an elite catcher hitting .300 for them in 2016 might have more than made up for Arrieta’s absence. The only reason Realmuto didn’t start the All-Star Game that season was the uniform he was wearing: Cub Nation easily ends Yadier Molina‘s reign as the perennial NL backstop a couple years early. For the Marlins, that’s elite production missing from a key position. Replacing that 2.6 WAR in 2016, and a silly 4.4 in 2017 would have been exceedingly difficult.
However, given the rest of the offensive talent Miami had, and the fact that most of baseball generally runs the “same catcher” out there in terms of talent, it seems more than reasonable to tack at least a few more wins to each of the Marlins final records from 2014 to 2017. And if you allow for that assumption, then it becomes even more reasonable to ask the following questions, starting with….