How Jake Arrieta Could Have Changed Miami Marlins History
If Jake Arrieta was on the 2015 and 2016 Miami Marlins, is Don Mattingly even the manager?
As I said, the Miami Marlins famously hired a very inexperienced manager as a replacement for Redmond in 2015.
But if Redmond had survived May of that season, it stands to reason he would have survived the entire campaign. Which begs the question, is Don Mattingly even the manager of this team right now?
Mattingly is a pro’s pro, and just won a Manager of the Year award. He’s widely respected around the game, and the organization is probably better off with him at the helm. Then again, Redmond was strongly in the running for that award himself in 2014. That the same 2016 Miami Marlins roster would have finished with a better record under Mattingly than Redmond is likely, but by no means a lock. Manager wise, the fall out for that decision really starts in 2018 then. The MLB shelf-life for skippers would strongly suggest Redmond wouldn’t still be the manager if he had been retained way back when. Who would be instead is anyone’s guess, but it wouldn’t be Mattingly.
Other Miami Marlins What Ifs For 2016 And Beyond
That being said, back to the Jake Arrieta impact on the Miami Marlins roster itself.
Records first. Even after adjusting for the WAR hit of losing a Realmuto, one of the 2016 or 2017 clubs is posting a winning record with Arrieta on the team. Maybe both. Winning seasons aren’t championships, but they’re not nothing. So let’s consider the ramifications.
Rosenthal himself noted that the odds are long on that disastrous Wei-Yin Chen signing ever happening if Arrieta was in the fold. There’s no way it does. Chen was signed to be that No. 2 behind Fernandez; Arrieta’s 2015 season would have made Fernandez the No. 2 option. Replacing Chen’s “production” with Arrieta those two seasons speaks for itself. The financial and roster implications though? That gets murky fast.
Financially, not paying Chen that ridiculous contract in free agency frees up some money in 2016. Maybe enough to shore up some other holes in the roster. Perhaps an extra reliever, or really, any other free agent starting pitcher. Another possibility would be Miami having been comfortable taking on more money in a midseason trade that year, doing more than they did to add to that team. Jumping ahead to 2017, maybe Miami gets even more aggressive in the bidding for Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen, and successfully reels in an All-Star closer that season.
Those Miami Marlins teams are just stronger with Arrieta, and without Chen. Period.
Which brings us to some specific roster implications going forward with Arrieta in a Marlins uniform…