Washington Nationals look to shake off disappointing 2020 campaign

The Washington Nationals disappointed in 2020. Can they get back to their winning ways this year?

Spring training is a time when a fan’s mood can swing back and forth between boundless hope and deep despair. The following is a debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Washington Nationals.

Opti-me: Let’s get one thing straight at the outset. Nobody takes the 2020 short season seriously, so as far as sane people are concerned the Nationals are still the reigning World Series champions. Do not be fooled by imposters.

It will not surprise anybody that the Nationals’ viability in 2021 largely hinges on the pitching staff, and especially on Stephen Strasburg. He was great in 2019 – an 18-6 record, 3.32 ERA and a league-leading 209 innings pitched. He capped it off by being named MVP of the World Series.

Then came 2020, wrist surgery, and a lost season. So far this spring he’s only made a couple of appearances, being set back by thigh problems, but those should be curable.

If Strasburg returns to his normal game, with Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and being joined by Jon Lester, the Nats’ rotation will be every bit as good as the World Series winners.

Pessi-me: Taking a pass on 2020 is very convenient considering that the Washington Nationals went 26-34. Granted, your pitching was much worse without Strasburg. You allowed a half run per game more and your team ERA went up three-quarters of a point.

The question is how much that’s fixable. We don’t know and you don’t know whether Strasburg will come back from that injury to be the same pitcher he was. He’s in his 30s now and his fastball velocity has declined steadily since 2015.

You’re also assuming a lot with Scherzer. He’ll be 36, his ERA has risen every year since 2017, and he’s approaching 2,400 innings of work. That’s an arm’s worth these days.

Finally, what does Jon Lester bring? His ERA has risen nearly two points in two years. He’s 37 and statistically he’s coming off the worst season of his career.

Opti-me: The offense remains solid; in fact it got better over the off-season. The Nats picked up Josh Bell from Pittsburgh to play first base and he’s demonstrating this spring that he’s beyond the problems he had last year. He’s hitting .375 with four spring home runs.

You can add Bell to a lineup that hit .264 last season; that was third in the NL. Juan Soto and Trea Turner are certified stars in right field and at shortstop. In fact Soto may be on a Mike Trout level; he hit .351 last season with a 1.185 OPS.

As for Turner, he was a rare 12-12 guy in 2020: 12 home runs and 12 steals. Over a full season that would be 30-30, and that also would be star level.

The Nats also added Kyle Schwarber, who hit 11 homers last year…that would be 30 over the course of a regular season. In short, this team will hit the ball hard.

Pessi-me: On the rare occasions when it hits the ball at all. You really loaded up on whiff capability over the winter. Between them, Bell and Schwarber have 643 strikeouts since 2018. Bell batted .226 and that was 38 points better than Schwarber. He’s replacing Adam Eaton, who was a contact specialist.

You’re also fully committed to making a ballplayer out of Carter Kieboom. Good luck with that. He did raise his average a lot in 2020, but it was from .128 to .202. Yet you didn’t even pursue another third baseman.

Opti-me: Cut Kieboom a break, why don’t you? He’s played 44 big league games. He hit .303 at Triple A in 2019, and he’s still only 23.

The reality is the Nationals have some strong young talent. And we’re not just talking about Soto here. Luis Garcia is only 21 and he’s going to be a star at second base. He got his baptism in 2020 and hit .276. He does need to work on his defense, but that will come.

Then there’s Victor Robles, who at 24 is now established as the center fielder. He’s a solid defender who just needs to bounce back to his 2019 offensive level to be a real contributor.

Pessi-me: Are you sure you want to brag about your prospects? MLB Pipeline just came out with its system ratings. Congrats, the Washington Nationals are No. 30 out of 30.

The other area the Nationals haven’t done anything is behind the plate. I understand the loyalty to Yan Gomes. He helped you win a World Series. But he’s 33 and coming off his worst season throwing out baserunners. You’re backing him up with Alex Avila, who’s 34 and hasn’t hit .240 since 2017.

The conclusion: You’re counting on Strasburg first to be healthy and second to make all the difference between 2020 and 2019. You’re counting on Bell and Schwarber to come in and play at a level you fantasize rather than at a level they’ve been playing at.

None of those things are given and they’re probably not even realistic. Combine that with the improvements the Mets and Marlins have made and it may be all you can do this season to escape the NL East cellar.

And yes, 2020 does count.

Opti-me: You’ll regret that assessment when Strasburg comes back strong, Scherzer, Corbin and Lester all pitch to their levels, Soto wins the MVP, Turner wins the batting and stolen base titles, and Kieboom establishes himself as a regular, if not a star, at third base.

When that happens, the Washington Nationals will contend for the 2020 NL East title.